PSU Banks vs. the Rest

image

PSU banks [stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] have under-performed the market this year, up just 7% vs. the sector’s [stockquote]BANKBEES[/stockquote] 22% and the market’s [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote] 9%. 2011 was not kind to the dinosaurs either, -42% vs. the Nifty’s not so great -16%.

In fact, the only time the PSUs outperformed by a meaningful measure was during the panic of 2008, where they tanked less than the rest of the market.

The gloom and doom scenario includes rising NPAs, pension provisions and rising costs leading to more capital raises. Besides, given the experience of minority shareholders in the government owned Coal India [stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote], FIIs have been fleeing from public sector companies in general.

PSU banks are overexposed to bankrupt state electricity boards, with no glimmer of hope in the horizon. And given the weak monsoon, the direct exposure these banks have to the agriculture sector might land a double whammy in 2012.

But given the 35% drop since 2011, this sector is worth a second look. The Finance Minister is making the right noises regarding the deficit. The monsoon may not turn out to be all that bad after all. NPAs are getting worked through and it looks like banks will be exiting 2012 with a decent balance sheet. Besides, the yield curve is positive, so the banks don’t have to try too hard to make money. The 2012 budget has sanctioned Rs. 15,888 crore to be provided for capitalization of public sector banks and financial institutions to get them Basel III compliant, so the capital situation is not that bad.

PSUBNKBEES technical analysis charts

Currently the PSU Bank ETF looks like its resting on a weak support at Rs. 300 and the near-term upside seems limited. However, if it heads towards Rs. 250, be prepared to pull the trigger.

PSU banks should on every investors radar. Remember Warren Buffett: “Buy what everybody hates”

 

Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-08-06.2012-08-10

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +1.47% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHARTIARTL (-13.79%), SBIN (-5.86%) and RANBAXY (-4.91%).
And the biggest winners were STER (+8.61%), M&M (+8.00%) and HINDUNILVR (+6.67%).
Advancers lead decliners 37 vs 13
Gold: +0.07%, Banks: +0.12%. Infrastructure: -0.09%,

IIP numbers that came out this week point to continuing slowdown in investments.

The only bright spot is that FII inflows continue to remain firm. Foreign investors pumped in closed to $2 billion in July. This, combined with hope that the government will announce a slew of fiscal policies to tackle the burgeoning deficits, uncontainable inflation and slowing growth has kept the market drifting higher.

Also, remember that Europe is on summer vacation. Summitry and politics have been postponed to September. If the global macro situation worsens next month, we can no longer rely on FIIs to support the market.

Will we be ready by September to stand on our own two feet?

 

Daily news summaries are here.

Go Codes, Summaries, Cash Tags and More!

Tracking your favorite companies just got easier! Use StockViz go codes to jump directly into a curated stream of company information.

http://StockViz.biz/go/COALINDIA

image

StockViz uses advanced text summarization to give you the meat of the article. If you are a fan of RSS, you can click on the imageicon and subscribe to the feed in our favorite news reader.

For all of you Twitter fans out there, StockViz is now cash tag ready! Company news are now preceded by a $TICKER to make searching and aggregation easer.

image

 

Are you a publisher? Have a blog? Check out our WordPress plugin that inserts live stock-quotes into your post.

 

 

 

 

Would you rather get your news on your email? Subscribe to news alerts on the company page and have news delivered to your email address!

image

 

So what are you waiting for? Start tracking your stocks today!

KG D6: Time to end the off-field drama

From being a prized asset to a pain in the neck for Reliance Industries (RIL) [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote], the government, investors and other stakeholders, KG-D6, the country’s biggest gas discovery, has been mired in several off-field controversies than on-field exploits. Production was expected to touch 80 mmscmd by April this year as per the original development plan after all the 31 wells are drilled and brought to production. However, in the last few months, output has dipped to below 30 mmscmd, sparking a ugly row between the government and operator of the eastern offshore block, Mukesh Ambani-owned RIL. This will be the lowest level since RIL began production from KG-D6 block in April 2009.

imageWhile a drop in pressure in the wells and increased water and sand ingress pulled down per-well gas output, the flagging Krishna-Godavari (KG)-D6 fields has been subjected to several other distractions like sharp downward revision in provable reserves by partner Niko Resources, tussle between RIL and the government after the centre refused to clear the operator’s investment proposals of over $1.5 billion and delays in regulatory approvals forcing the company to defer investments.

Under the production sharing contract, the government allows companies to recover their cost from revenues and then share profits with the government.

Last November, RIL sent an arbitration notice to the government over recovering its investments in the KG basin after the oil ministry disallowed the cost recovery saying RIL failed to meet drilling commitments, accusing it of violating the production sharing contract.

Some voices in the street also believe that RIL is deliberately allowing production to drift downwards as it is unhappy with the gas price of $4.2/ mmbtu that stays till 2014.

The ugly battle has created a climate of uncertainty and loss of confidence among global oil & gas majors, forcing them to stay away from India’s hydrocarbon sector.

imageInstead of adopting a confrontationist stance, the oil ministry and the company need to bridge the gap and work in tandem for the sake of the country’s energy security. Sagging output from KG-D6 has forced companies to import gas at almost double or triple rates. While KG-D6 gas is available at $4.2/mmbtu plus taxes and marketing margin, imported gas varies anywhere from $8.5/ mmbtu to $14/mmbtu.

While the government must get rid of its bureaucratic hurdles and cut down on red tape, RIL must ensure greater transparency in terms of the problems facing the basin, the costs undertaken, etc. Both the sides have taken steps in this direction. While the oil ministry has conditionally approved RIL’s KG budget for the last three years, the Mukesh Ambani-controlled company has agreed to provide the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) access to records of the KG D6 block. This paves the way for the company to obtain green signal for its integrated field development plan (IFDP), which is crucial to revive the declining KG-D6 production.

technical analysis chartThe conditional approval will not only facilitate investments but also lead to an amicable resolution of the pending arbitration between RIL and Oil Ministry over reduction in KG – D6 cost-recovery.

For RIL, its fortunes and growth outlook are linked to quick recovery in gas production from KG-D6 basin. Last fiscal (FY12) saw the company’s share price slump by 28.6% against a 10.5% fall in the Sensex during the same period, reflecting investors’ unease over the standoff. If RIL is to regain its aura as the darling of D-Street, it needs to step up the gas and ramp up declining production.

Weekly Recap: Hopium

NIFTY.2012-07-30.2012-08-03

The NIFTY ended on a bullish note, shooting up +2.25% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHARTIARTL (-3.56%), COALINDIA (-2.80%) and HEROMOTOCO (-2.53%).
And the biggest winners were NTPC (+8.48%), BHEL (+8.35%) and GRASIM (+7.83%).
Advancers lead decliners 42 vs 8
Gold: -0.41%, Banks: +1.64%. Infrastructure: -1.21%

Friday’s overseas action will boost the Monday open of the NIFTY. The Dow shot up +1.74% to 13103, S&P +1.94% and Crude +4.63% to $91.16 on good unemployment numbers. Europe apparently read the fine print overnight and decided it liked what Mr. Draghi said: Stoxx 50 +4.8%, Germany +4%, France +4.4%, Italy +6.2%, Spain +5.8%, U.K. +2.2%.

Daily news summaries are here.

Have a nice weekend!