Weekly Recap: I don’t know

Nify heatmap

The Nifty continued its slide, down -1.98%. Some of the beaten down sectors staged a dead-cat bounce. The new RBI governor is likely to follow Brazil and Turkey in hiking short-term rates to stabilize the currency and tame inflation. Meanwhile, overly leveraged business are going to take a hit. Not to mention the worsening of the payment situation in the infrastructure and real-estate sectors.

Index Performance

Nifty Index performance

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +17.08%
PFC +17.64%
RANBAXY +31.53%
BHEL -21.52%
ASIANPAINT -13.40%
GSKCONS -11.27%
Ranbaxy was the turn-around story of the year (so far…) It appears that investors are finally able to overlook short-term challenges and look at longer-term growth.

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +3.41%
GOLDBEES +1.38%
PSUBNKBEES -0.76%
NIFTYBEES -2.48%
INFRABEES -4.42%
BANKBEES -5.98%
Banks continued to get crushed.

Advancers and Decliners

Not a bull in sight…
advancers-decliners

Yield Curve

The yield curve seems to have stabilized. However the RBI did announce further liquidity tightening measures after the markets closed yesterday.
yield curve

Sector Performance

sector performance

Thought for the weekend

Sometimes I am asked things I could not possibly know, particularly about the future. Rather than guess, I believe the best approach is to admit the truth, then plan accordingly. The alternative is to do what too many people do: Make predictions, then marry those forecasts. This usually leads to catastrophic results.

Source: On the Value of Not Knowing

Indian Media: Going Strong

In January last year, Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani surprised one and all by investing over Rs 1,700 crore in Raghav Bahl’s debt-ridden media entities Network 18 and TV18 Broadcast that would give him access to ready-made content.

The deal reflected the attractive growth opportunities present in the media sector, considered as ‘sunset’ industries in developed markets but flourishing in India. The readership in newspaper industry may be declining in many international markets with the advent of digital media but continues to thrive in India, thanks to increasing literacy rates and higher disposable income coupled with growth of regional and special interest newspapers.

MEDIA SEGMENT GROWTH

In 2012, media and entertainment (M&E) industry grew at 12.6 per cent to Rs 82,000 crore, says a Ficci-KPMG report. While a slowing global economy and reduced advertising budgets is likely to pull down growth slightly to Rs 91,700 crore this year, the future looks promising.

Driven by digitization, strong growth of regional media, upcoming elections, burgeoning film industry and fast increasing new media businesses, the sector is set to grow at a healthy rate of 15.2% to reach Rs 1.66 lakh crore by 2017.

Last month, DB Corp, which publishes eight newspapers with 65 editions in Hindi, Gujarati and English including Dainik Bhaskar and Divya Bhaskar reported strong set of numbers with net profit rising by 74% to Rs 76 crore. The Kalanidhi Maran-owned Sun Television Network also saw net profit rising to Rs 164 crore during the June quarter while HT Media clocked a net profit of Rs 47 crore. Reliance Broadcast and Dish TV narrowed their losses during the quarter.

RESULTS

 

The print media accounts for 46% of the total ad spending by advertisers.  Despite the surge in alternative media (private TV, radio and internet) over the past three decades, print holds value and derives its appeal from high degree of regionalization and localization, broad based coverage, etc. However, off late, slowing ad revenue growth and rising newsprint prices have forced companies to cut down on non-profitable editions to stay afloat. Regional markets (especially Hindi) have been growing faster than metro-focused English markets.

Markets beyond tier-1 cities are largely catered to by the regional print media (Hindi and other languages). Also, the penetration of digital media in these markets is lower due to poor infrastructure and language barrier as digital media is largely English centric.

HINDI SEGMENT

While the M&E industry continues to grow at a strong pace, proper regulation to ensure plurality and diversity of views has been found lacking. With increased commercialisation and entry of multinational media corporations in Indian media, cross media ownership has been a tricky subject that the industry has failed to address.

Broadcasting companies owning television channels are venturing into distribution segments of cable television, Direct-to-Home (DTH), Headend-in-the-Sky (HITS) and Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) while distribution segment companies are entering into television broadcasting, sparking fears of content monopoly and market power.

Companies like Bennett, Coleman & Co Ltd and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, among others, have a significant presence in print, TV and FM radio while Sun TV and Essel Group have interests in print, TV, FM as well as distribution platforms like Direct-To-Home (DTH) and MSOs.

CORPORATE GROUPS PRESENCE

 

An Administrative Staff College of India (ASCI) report in 2009 recommended that cross media ownership rules for broadcasting, print and new media must be put in place since there is ample evidence of market dominance in certain relevant markets.

Also, political parties, either directly or indirectly control newspapers, TV channels and cable TV distribution. Such players may selectively stream content to suit the needs of their political masters and also suppress competition in the market, depriving consumers of unbiased information.

Tamil Nadu is a prime example of this where political parties of all hues own news channels and thus control the flow of information.

The growing clout of Ambanis and other corporates have raised concerns that they can influence policy making to promote their vested interests while generating business revenues for themselves.

GLOBAL RULES

 

Lack of regulation has given rise to the culture of paid news, corporate and political lobbying, biased opinions and sensationalism in reporting, especially in entities with business and political interests.

The government should limit the number of licenses held by a single entity, restrict ownership across media and telecom companies. The key is to ensuring a high level of plurality of news and views while providing freedom to companies to expand and innovate.

Weekly Recap: The Blip

NIFTY.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

The Nifty went down on both knees, down -3.54%, and Financial Tech and MCX got bentIT was once again the best performing sector, benefiting from the Rupee’s slide.

Index Performance

indexperf.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

Top winners and losers (CNX 100)

 

LUPIN +4.22%
BAJAJHLDNG +4.28%
TITAN +8.13%
JPASSOCIAT -28.78%
DLF -25.47%
PFC -19.20%
Investors were willing to ignore compressed margin at Titan and ramped the stock higher. DLF reflected the credit crunch in real-estate and infra.

ETFs

BANKBEES +0.86%
GOLDBEES +0.49%
INFRABEES +0.47%
NIFTYBEES -2.36%
PSUBNKBEES -2.76%
JUNIORBEES -6.72%
Banks tried to stage a comeback but the Junior Nifty got dragged down by the troubles at Financial Tech.

Advancers and Decliners

A lot of breakage here. Tread carefully.
adline2.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

Yield Curve

Yield curve

The yield curve remained inverted with long term rates trending higher.

Sector Performance

Sector perfornamce

Though for the weekend

During the whole modern era from 1750 onward—which contains, not coincidentally, the full life span of the United States—human well-being accelerated at a rate that could barely have been contemplated before. Instead of permanent stagnation, growth became so rapid and so seemingly automatic that by the fifties and sixties the average American would roughly double his or her parents’ standard of living. In the space of a single generation, for most everybody, life was getting twice as good.

At some point in the late sixties or early seventies, this great acceleration began to taper off. The shift was modest at first, and it was concealed in the hectic up-and-down of yearly data. But if you examine the growth data since the early seventies, and if you are mathematically astute enough to fit a curve to it, you can see a clear trend: The rate at which life is improving here, on the frontier of human well-being, has slowed.

Source: The Blip

NSEL – Contagone

For commodities, the futures or forward curve would typically be upward sloping (i.e. “normal”, “in contango”), since contracts for further dates would typically trade at even higher prices. In broad terms, backwardation reflects the majority market view that spot prices will move down, and contango that they will move up. Both situations allow speculators to earn a profit.”

A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity that has a cost of carry. Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible. For perishable commodities, price differences between near and far delivery are not a contango. Different delivery dates are in effect entirely different commodities in this case, since fresh eggs today will not still be fresh in 6 months’ time.

Back in April 2012, the ministry of consumer affairs, food & public distribution shot a show cause notice to the National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) asking it to explain why products that monetize contango shouldn’t be treated as short-selling. The problem was that brokerages and “wealth managers” were hawking products that involved simultaneously entering into a 3-day buy contract and a 20-day sell contract and pocketing the difference.

This ET article of October 2012 explains the trade: “There is no product offering assured or fixed rate. In physical trade, the practice is such that a trader or stockiest, who buys from mandi on cash payment and supplies to a mill such stock, gets payment from the mill after 15-25 days (varies from commodity to commodity and place to place). If the supplier insists for cash payment, the mill applies a CD (cash discount of 2%). Hence, the interest rate prevalent in physical trade of commodity varies from 24 % p.a. to 30 % p.a. Compared to that, on NSEL the cost of money involved in procurement has come down to 15 – 18 %, which is beneficial to the processor.”

However, the Consumer Affairs Ministry, in all its wisdom, decided that this practice needed to stop. In July, it asked NSEL not to launch new contracts until further instructions from the government. This was akin to yelling “fire” in a crowded movie theater and the commodity markets went into a tail spin. The NSEL had this to say in its press release: “Such structural change has disrupted the market equilibrium as volumes on the Exchange have gone down significantly. It created conflicting views in the minds of large number of members that there are certain regulatory issues pertaining to the contracts running on the Exchange in view of direction dated July 12, 2013, which has been widely reported in media. This abrupt action has created uncertainty and doubt about continuity of trading on the Exchange and hence most of the participants started withdrawing from the market. While the Exchange has run successfully without any disruption since last five years, such structural change has created market dis-equilibrium, leading to this scenario.”

Meanwhile, financing costs in the real-world for stokiests has probably gone back up and beyond 30%. And this happened:

FINANTECH - Financial Technologies (India) Limited - Technical Analysis Charts - Intraday - News - Options - StockViz

MCX - Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited - Technical Analysis Charts - Intraday - News - Options - StockViz

Weekly Recap: Passion is an affliction

NIFTY.2013-07-19.2013-07-26

The Nifty ended -2.37% for the week, largely fueled by RBI’s move to tighten liquidity to save the Rupee from “evil speculators.” IT was the best performing sector, benefiting, ironically, from the Rupee’s slide.

Index Performance

Index performance

Top winners and losers (CNX 100)

HEROMOTOCO +5.22%
TECHM +7.55%
IDEA +9.40%
JPASSOCIAT -15.93%
CANBK -15.43%
UBL -15.00%
In spite of Abhishek Bachchan’s endorsement, IDEA was the best idea…

ETFs

GOLDBEES +2.04%
NIFTYBEES -2.48%
JUNIORBEES -3.27%
PSUBNKBEES -3.44%
BANKBEES -3.52%
INFRABEES -3.77%
Banks continued to under perform and Gold was the only place to hide this week.

Advancers and Decliners

Market breadth was largely negative…

advancers decliners

Yield Curve

Short term rates continued to rise, putting a squeeze on rate sensitives…
yield curve

Sector Performance

Rate sensitives and cyclicles got trounced
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

I’ve had it with optimism. Optimism, at least US style, got us into this mess. It gave us 30+ years of indulgent parenting in which self-esteem was considered to be more important than skill acquisition, self-discipline, cooperation, and learning to cope with adversity.

Source: NakedCapitalism