Weekly Recap: Manufactured Complexity

nifty weekly performance

The Nifty rallied 3.81% this week, largely on the back of the new RBI Governor’s “Big Bang” entry.

Index Performance

Banks rallied on the back of RBI’s FX swaps that is expected to bring in $10bn from non-resident deposits.

index performance

Top Winners and Losers

ICICIBANK +19.24%
BHEL +19.54%
YESBANK +20.38%
SESAGOA -7.02%
TATAPOWER -6.66%
HEROMOTOCO -5.68%
Say Yes to Yes Bank? After spending most of 2013 in the boondocks, it appears that RBI’s measures was what the market was waiting for…

ETFs

BANKBEES +10.04%
NIFTYBEES +4.09%
JUNIORBEES +2.48%
INFRABEES +1.53%
GOLDBEES -1.79%
PSUBNKBEES -8.24%
PSU (State-owned) banks did not feel the same love that private banks felt. Gold is probably more exposed to currency fluctuations than the macro at this point…

Advancers and Decliners

Are we at the cusp of a breakthrough here?

advance decline

Yield Curve

Rates ended lower across the curve but the term-structure remains inverted.
yield curve

Sector Performance

IT corrected and banks rallied…
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

For all their great work, it is unclear that economists have actually helped government officials manage the complex task of managing a national economy any better than they ever have. We are bedeviled by manufactured complexity — complexity that could have been avoided but has instead been amplified by the pursuit of narrow knowledge in a broad world.

Source: Our Self-Inflicted Complexity

Land Bill: Landing a right note?

The Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2013 (formerly known as the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2011), has quite understandably, created a stir. Ever since the bill was passed in the Lok Sabha last week, the debate has largely centred around the negative impact on India Inc but it is too early to call it as a victory for landowners. On Thursday, the Parliament passed the amended version of the Bill wherein the proposed law would not apply to irrigation projects where environmental impact assessment is required under the provision of any other law already in place. The government also agreed that farmers whose land was acquired for irrigation projects will either get compensation or be given resettlement package.

 

INVESTMENT TREND

One of the key proposals of the Bill is the rehabilitation and resettlement (R&R) of not just landowners but also project-affected people.

People whose land and habitation have been taken over without their consent by the state government or companies have resorted to protests, as a result of which all development projects are viewed with suspicion. The examples of acquisition of Singur land in West Bengal by the Tatas or the Reliance SEZ in Maharashtra are stark examples of this growing discontent.

Let’s quickly scan through key proposals before assessing its impact on stakeholders-

  • Private companies to provide for rehabilitation and resettlement if land acquired through private negotiations is more than 50 acres in urban areas and 100 acres in rural areas.
  • When land is acquired for use by private companies or public private partnerships (PPP), consent of 80% and 70% of landowners is required
  • Compensation up to four times the market value in rural areas and twice in urban areas
  • Companies can lease the land instead of purchasing it, but the decision is that of the state rather than the land-owner.
  • If the land is sold to a third party, 40% of the profits will have to be shared with the original owners.
  • Affected “families” would include farm laborers, tenants and workers who have occupied the area for up to three years before the land acquisition. Such persons will have to given a job or compensation of Rs 5 lakh, an allowance of Rs 3,000 a month for a year.

land for sez

Infrastructure companies are crying hoarse that higher compensation could delay projects, spike property, infra costs and in some cases also make land acquisition for industrial projects nonviable.

Kisan Maha Panchayat: No land acqusition

They further argue that buying land for large projects like integrated townships will become difficult and contend that bigger government role in the whole process is a throwback to the Licence Raj era.

A quick look at some of the big-ticket projects will throw some insights into land acquisition costs as a component of overall project costs.

The mega Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor is a $90 billion project. The mega infrastructure project between the Japanese and Indian government has set aside Rs 1,200 crore for land acquisition under Phase-1 of the project cycle. Of course, going ahead, the costs would multiply several times. But what is the big fuss about this? Once the project is up and running, the operators would recover the money, much higher than their investments, from their customers.

 

ORISSA CASE

Similar is the case with Posco’s much-hyped $12 billion steel plant in Orissa. The project, that has run into trouble with locals over alleged forceful eviction against project opponents, initially required over 4,000 acres of land near Paradip in Orissa but was later scaled back to 2,700 acres. According to latest reports and data available in public domain, the state claims to have acquired about 2,700 acres of land and paid compensation to 1,132 people. So far, ‘Rs 21 crore has been paid to the affected farmers for demolishing their betel vines ’. No compensation has been paid towards land as these vines and tree were planted by the villagers on the government land. In Posco’s case, land acquisition costs and Rehabilitation and Resettlement expenses are nil or very minuscule as entire land is government owned.

However, it sounds childish and laughable on the part of India Inc, setting up projects worth thousands of crores, to keep fuming at compensation costs and arguing that land acquisition costs alone would make projects nonviable. What should really worry corporate India is the lengthy process in securing possession of the land. The Bill calls for appointing several committees of activists and “experts” as part of social impact assessment. This would be followed by the Rehabilitation and Resettlement Committee. The multiplicity of agencies would only lead to bureaucratic red-tape and delay the whole process.

 

approval time

As for landowners, their rights have largely been protected. Only when 70% of project-affected land owners give their consent, can companies go ahead with the acquisition process. Since land prices shoot up substantially when industrial projects come up in an area, it is only fair that landowners are paid more than the ‘market price’. Due to lack of clarity on land holdings and titles, involvement of the state government would facilitate the transfer.

The bill will eliminate the trust deficit between land owners and corporate India and ensure that the benefits of development on the acquired lands accrue to land owners and others dependent on the land. Instead of bemoaning the provisions of the bill, India Inc should welcome the legislation as it eliminates uncertainties and lays out clear guidelines for land acquisition without which setting up projects was next to impossible.

 

Screening For Financial Statement Manipulation

Messod Beneish, a professor at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, outlined a quantitative approach to detecting financial statement manipulation in his 1999 paper The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. (pdf) He based his model on forensic accounting principles, calling it the “probability of manipulation,” or PROBM model.

The model correctly identified, ahead of time, 12 of the 17 highest-profile fraud cases in the period 1998 to 2002. The PROBM model also consistently predicted stock returns over 1993 to 2007. Students from Cornell University, using the PROBM, correctly identified Enron as an earnings manipulator, while experienced financial analysts failed to do so.

Looking through balance sheets from 2010-2013, the companies with the least probability of manipulation are:
LGBFORGE [stockquote]LGBFORGE[/stockquote]
DISHTV [stockquote]DISHTV[/stockquote]
EROSMEDIA [stockquote]EROSMEDIA[/stockquote]
TATACOMM [stockquote]TATACOMM[/stockquote]
HERITGFOOD [stockquote]HERITGFOOD[/stockquote]
SUPERSPIN [stockquote]SUPERSPIN[/stockquote]
ASAL [stockquote]ASAL[/stockquote]
VIMTALABS [stockquote]VIMTALABS[/stockquote]
PIRGLASS [stockquote]PIRGLASS[/stockquote]
RIIL [stockquote]RIIL[/stockquote]

Since the PROBM score is more of a gatekeeper, here’s a slightly longer list of stocks with high PROBM score:

ASHIANA [stockquote]ASHIANA[/stockquote]
IDFC [stockquote]IDFC[/stockquote]
TUBEINVEST [stockquote]TUBEINVEST[/stockquote]
BAJAJFINSV [stockquote]BAJAJFINSV[/stockquote]
PTC [stockquote]PTC[/stockquote]
SHRIRAMCIT [stockquote]SHRIRAMCIT[/stockquote]
MAGMA [stockquote]MAGMA[/stockquote]
GODREJPROP [stockquote]GODREJPROP[/stockquote]
BAJAJCORP [stockquote]BAJAJCORP[/stockquote]
SRTRANSFIN [stockquote]SRTRANSFIN[/stockquote]
SGJHL [stockquote]SGJHL[/stockquote]
THANGAMAYL [stockquote]THANGAMAYL[/stockquote]
MANAPPURAM [stockquote]MANAPPURAM[/stockquote]
SREINFRA [stockquote]SREINFRA[/stockquote]
CHOLAFIN [stockquote]CHOLAFIN[/stockquote]
M&MFIN [stockquote]M&MFIN[/stockquote]
LICHSGFIN [stockquote]LICHSGFIN[/stockquote]
BAJFINANCE [stockquote]BAJFINANCE[/stockquote]
L&TFH [stockquote]L&TFH[/stockquote]
PFS [stockquote]PFS[/stockquote]

Note: we ignored stocks that don’t had 5 years worth of statements.

The PROBM score, along with SNOA and STA, allows us to screen for stocks with strong balance sheets. We’ll put these three together in the next post…

SNOA – Scaled Net Operating Assets

The intuition behind SNOA as a filter is that firms with a high level of net operating assets, scaled to control for their size, indicates a lack of sustainability of recent earnings performance. An accumulation of accounting earnings without a commensurate accumulation of free cash flows raises doubts about future profitability. If investors have limited attention and fail to discount for the unsustainability of earnings growth, then firms with high net operating assets will be overvalued relative to those with low net operating assets. In the long run, such mispricing will on average be corrected. This implies that firms with high net operating assets will on average earn negative long-run abnormal returns, and those with low net operating assets will earn positive long-run abnormal returns. The whole paper is worth a read: Do Investors Overvalue Firms with Bloated Balance Sheets (pdf)

The idea is that you go long stocks with low SNOA and short stocks with high SNOA. Going past 5 years, here’s a list of stocks with a low SNOA:

NMDC [stockquote]NMDC[/stockquote]
ORISSAMINE [stockquote]ORISSAMINE[/stockquote]
MOIL [stockquote]MOIL[/stockquote]
ENGINERSIN [stockquote]ENGINERSIN[/stockquote]
INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]
INGERRAND [stockquote]INGERRAND[/stockquote]
OFSS [stockquote]OFSS[/stockquote]
OIL [stockquote]OIL[/stockquote]
NAUKRI [stockquote]NAUKRI[/stockquote]
COALINDIA [stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote]

And the ones with high SNOA:

HALONIX [stockquote]HALONIX[/stockquote]
ESL [stockquote]ESL[/stockquote]
VGUARD [stockquote]VGUARD[/stockquote]
HITECHPLAS [stockquote]HITECHPLAS[/stockquote]
TIRUMALCHM [stockquote]TIRUMALCHM[/stockquote]
TTML [stockquote]TTML[/stockquote]
BIRLAERIC [stockquote]BIRLAERIC[/stockquote]
BURNPUR [stockquote]BURNPUR[/stockquote]
SURANAVEL [stockquote]SURANAVEL[/stockquote]
DIGJAM [stockquote]DIGJAM[/stockquote]

Note: we ignored stocks that don’t had 5 years worth of statements.

When you combine STA (discussed earlier) and SNOA, you get to a place where you have filtered a vast majority of the universe. But there’s one more gatekeeper to discuss…

The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: The Empathy Gap

“Prepare, plan and pre-commit to a strategy”

However astute an investor believes himself to be, he is weakened by the “empathy gap,” a human being’s inherent inability to predict his own behavior in the heat of the moment. It’s easy to take logical decisions when everything’s going our way but under pressure, the best of us can crack, in terribly embarrassing ways at times.

In the first chapter of The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy, James Montier elucidates on the human traits that condemn us to self-punishing propensities. First, we suffer from the empathy gap. And if that’s not enough, we also bear the brunt of procrastination – that frustrating but inevitable habit of pushing things to the last moment.

Cover of "The Little Book of Behavioral I...

Life, in general, is very forgiving of these foibles. However, the market is a heartless beast. Markets do not care about you, your family or your feelings. If you truly want to become a better investor there’s no way around it; you’ve got to deal with procrastination and empathy gap. Montier suggests a strategy: Prepare and pre-commit. Let’s see what this means.

Pay special attention to planning and preparation techniques while devising your investment strategy. For starters, conduct your research when the market is neither here nor there and the chances of your getting upset or excited are minimal. A cold, rational state of mind is ideal for unemotional observations, drawing logical conclusions and analyzing situations and markets. It’s the perfect time to chalk out an action plan that covers your best and worst “what-if” scenarios.

When you think about it, the worst place to look for research is CNBC and financial media in general. The ad-based business model of media companies motivates them towards the sensational. It’s better for them to focus on Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How rather than the boring and mundane process of actually reading a prospectus or balance-sheet.

Now, why should you prepare and pre-commit? To stop you from taking an original decision in the throes of a volatile market scenario. The trading floor is not the place to follow your instinct. Instead, follow the pre-decided action plan and blindly follow instructions. That’s how you prevent transient emotion or group behavior from influencing your buy or sell decisions.

Now, like a lot of things we read, this may sound easy. But it’s anything but, believe me.

A bad investment choice is like falling for a guy everyone warns you about because your heart thinks your brain is a pessimist. When you’re blindly in love, you can’t imagine it otherwise. And when you’re deep in the dumps, it’s hard to imagine being happy again. Pre-committing to an investment plan may trigger similar reactions. Your C and X systems may lock in constant battle while nightmares of horrific “what-if” situations may mess with your blood pressure. But stick to it. Training your C system will take time and perseverance.

If you need motivation, history is replete with examples of bad investment choices. The dot-com bubble brought umpteen businesses and investors to the point of bankruptcy and pushed many into oblivion. Greed, shortsightedness, and hurried decisions cost investors heavily.

And then there are people like Sir John Templeton, legendary investor and mutual fund pioneer. He made his buy decisions well in advance of sell off periods, giving standing instructions for his brokers to execute under pre-imagined situations. He kept himself out of the buying/selling process.

If a man as seasoned as Sir John didn’t trust himself to take the right decision under stress, I’m sure we can’t afford the confidence. So set your emotions aside and pre-commit to a thoroughly planned investment strategy.

One way StockViz helps you pre-commit to a strategy is through Investment Themes. Each Theme follows a specific model for portfolio construction and can be mapped to your portfolio so that changes in the Theme get reflected on your account. Call us to find out how it works: +91 80 2665 0232 or email us at info@stockviz.biz

Monica Samuel is doing a chapter-wise review of the book: The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy by James Montier. You can follow the series by following this tag: tlbbinvesting or by subscribing to this rss feed: tlbbifeed