Category: Your Money

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Delta(δ)

Delta(δ) is a theoretical estimate of how much an option’s premium may change given a 1-point move in the underlying. For an option with a δ of .50, an investor can expect about a 50p move in that option’s premium given a Rs.1 move, up or down, in the underlying.

  • For purchased options owned by an investor, δ is between 0 and 1.00 for calls and 0 and -1.00 for puts.
  • As a call option goes deeper-in-the-money, δ approaches 1.00 on the increased likelihood the option will be in-the-money at expiration.
  • With an increase in implied volatility, δ gravitates toward .50 as more and more strikes are now considered possibilities for winding up in-the-money because of the perceived potential for movement in the underlying.
  • Low implied volatility stocks will tend to have higher δ for the in-the-money options and lower δ for out-of-the-money options.
  • At expiration an option either has a δ of either 0 or 1.00 with no time premium remaining.
  • As expiration nears, in-the-money call δs increase toward 1.00, at-the-money call δs remain around .50 and out-of-the-money call δs fall toward 0 provided other inputs remain constant.

Delta in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

δ of calls:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (CE)

δ of puts:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (PE)
 

Note how δs rip towards 0 or 1 as expiry approaches? Here’s an important intuition: in-the-money options will move more than out-of-the-money options, and short-term options will react more than longer-term options to the same price change in the stock.

Source: Understanding Delta

IPOs Revisited

IPO performance

We had come out with the StockViz 5-day rule for IPOs back in July-2012 which basically stated that “if it [the stock] doesn’t pop within the first 5 days, chances are that it never will.” And subsequent performance of IPOs have validated that rule.

Since August-2012, there have been 53 IPOs, of which only 2 have made any real money for investors over the long-term: JUSTDIAL and REPCOHOME. Here’s how the 5-,10-,20-,50-,100-,200-day average return for IPOs look like, juxtaposed on the NIFTYBEES ETF return:

returns

The IPOs that made money were not slam-dunks either. Here’s a splattering of commentary on Just Dial:

  • Hindu Business Line: Avoid (source)
  • Economic Times: Avoid (source)
  • Aditya Birla Money: Avoid (source)
  • Microsec: Seems unattractive, subscribe for listing gains (source)
  • HDFC Securities: Avoid (source)
  • GEPL Capital: Subscribe (source)
  • VS Fernando: Avoid (source)

There simply isn’t enough information about the company to evaluate whether the stock is a good investment or not at the time of the IPO. However, if you followed the rule, you would have cut your losses and retained the winners.

When it comes to investing in IPOs, remember the StockViz 5-day rule!

[stockquote]JUSTDIAL[/stockquote] [stockquote]REPCOHOME[/stockquote]

Markets 14.04.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-04-14

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.47%
CAC(FRA) -1.08%
UKX(GBR) -1.21%
NKY(JPN) -0.11%
SPX(USA) -0.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.61%
INMEX(MEX) -0.30%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.29%
XU030(TUR) -0.68%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.45%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.41%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.39%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.13%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.57%
Ethanol -1.50%
Heating Oil +0.58%
Natural Gas +0.15%
RBOB Gasoline +0.10%
WTI Crude Oil +0.52%
Metals
Copper +0.36%
Gold 100oz +0.74%
Palladium +0.92%
Platinum +0.30%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.25% USDJPY:-0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.16%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.33%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.40%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.18%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.54%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.03%
USDINR(IND) +0.18%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.25%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.69%
Cocoa +0.81%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.91%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.16%
Corn +0.45%
Cotton +0.97%
Feeder Cattle +0.73%
Lean Hogs +0.50%
Lumber -1.06%
Orange Juice +0.73%
Soybean Meal +0.42%
Soybeans +0.55%
Sugar #11 -1.52%
Wheat +1.48%
White Sugar -2.96%

Must Reads

Conditions are so dry in California that some farmers aren’t even bothering to plant. Will this make India’s food inflation situation worse? (Bloomberg)

Many products are often complex for complexity’s sake, while conflicts of interest abound among financial advisers and insurance brokers. If you really care about people making better financial decisions, focus on making financial products simpler and transparent. (Bloomberg)

Fund managers do not try to maximise their returns. They try to do better than their peers. We do not necessarily need a BMW, until next door has one. People do not necessarily need to maximise their pay – but grow furious if they find they are paid less than a colleague. Rather than do the best for ourselves that we possibly can, many of us instead aim just to do better than the other guy. (FT)

Enjoy! Markets closed for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti.

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Theta(θ) Decay

The most intuitive option greek is theta (θ) – a measurement of the option’s time decay. Theta measures the rate at which options lose their time value, as the expiration date draws nearer. It is usually expressed as a negative number.

Simply put, theta of an option reflects the amount by which the option’s value will decrease every day.

Time and Theta

  1. Longer term options have theta of almost 0 as they do not lose value on a daily basis.
  2. Theta is higher for shorter term options.
  3. Theta is higher for at-the-money options.
  4. Theta changes at an exponential rate. It goes up dramatically as options near expiration as time decay is at its greatest during that period.

Theta decay in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

θ of Calls:

March 2014 NIFTY Theta (CE)

θ of Puts:

March 2014 NIFTY Theta (PE)

Does it mean that you should go out and sell the heck out of every option you can find close to expiry?
 
No! As expiration gets closer, the risk posed by extreme amounts of gamma outweighs the theta you’re collecting.
 
Stay tuned for more.
 

Forensics: NIFTY Options

Charting options is a tough task. The price of the option is probably the last thing that is important. Implied volatility (IV), underlying volatility (σ) and option greeks play a big part in putting on successful option trades. We ran a tool that we developed on ATM Nifty options that tries to capture most of these moving parts.

2013-01-31 Nifty Call Analysis

Observe:

  • Theta (θ) declines.
  • Vega declines.
  • Rho converges to zero.
  • Call Delta is, on an average, around 0.54 (std. dev. of 0.075)
  • Call IV has been stable and decreasing since January this year: (0.150260, 0.149456, 0.147249, 0.136280)

Nifty Call Delta and IV

Nifty Put Delta and IV

March 2014 charts

Calls
2014-03-27.CE

Puts
2014-03-27.PE

Pictures say a thousand words, don’t they? Stay tuned for more.