Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: Sentiment Surveys are Pointless

world.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.98%
CAC(FRA) -1.00%
UKX(GBR) -0.70%
NKY(JPN) +1.78%
SPX(USA) -0.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.41%
INMEX(MEX) -0.80%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.18%
XU030(TUR) -5.87%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.00%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.24%
NIFTY(IND) +0.23%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.01%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.13%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -3.51%
Ethanol -9.71%
Heating Oil -2.48%
Natural Gas +1.21%
RBOB Gasoline -2.27%
WTI Crude Oil -1.06%
Metals
Copper -1.90%
Gold 100oz -3.04%
Palladium -5.69%
Platinum -2.89%
Silver 5000oz -2.62%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.03% USDJPY:+2.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.54%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.29%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.98%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.28%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.10%
USDINR(IND) +0.42%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.91%
USDZAR(ZAF) +3.06%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.17%
Cocoa +2.55%
Coffee (Arabica) -9.16%
Coffee (Robusta) -4.17%
Corn -4.10%
Cotton +8.16%
Feeder Cattle +1.57%
Lean Hogs +0.14%
Lumber +1.34%
Orange Juice -2.86%
Soybean Meal -1.17%
Soybeans +0.55%
Sugar #11 -8.18%
Wheat -6.71%
White Sugar -5.41%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.87%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.45%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.45%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +5.31%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.61%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.98%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +18.20%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.67%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.04%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.50%
It was a week when most markets went down but Indian mid-caps rallied like a cat with its tail on fire. Commodities: down, MINT markets: down, USD: up, credit: wide. Indian mid-caps: +3% to +10%.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Index Returns

index performance.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +11.06% 81/60
2 +12.97% 91/49
3 +11.06% 90/50
4 +7.52% 80/61
5 +10.47% 87/53
6 +6.29% 84/56
7 +5.64% 83/58
8 +4.40% 78/62
9 +3.14% 74/66
10 (mega) +0.79% 70/71
The action was in the lower end of the market-cap spectrum. The action in CNX 100/NIFTY was nothing compared to what happened in small/midcap stocks.

Top winners and losers

OFSS +9.72%
CIPLA +9.91%
ABIRLANUVO +12.84%
RANBAXY -6.74%
SUNPHARMA -6.03%
SAIL -5.75%
Sunpharma got dinged with an US-FDA inspection. No idea what happened to OFSS…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +8.22%
BANKBEES +1.94%
JUNIORBEES +1.31%
NIFTYBEES +0.21%
INFRABEES +0.18%
CPSEETF -0.43%
GOLDBEES -1.10%
Gold continued its tumble. Banks seem to have caught a bid…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.40 +0.27%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.24 +0.81%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.17 +1.08%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.10 +0.88%
3-8 year part of the curve saw some action. But the last couple of weeks in the bond markets was as exciting as watching paint dry…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-05.2014-09-12

Theme Performance

Midcap value stocks shot ahead of the rest of the markets. We have three user contributed themes that are listed under ‘User Contributed Themes’ here.

Thought for the weekend

Sentiment data is inconclusive and sometimes contradictory. There is no signal within the noisy data. Besides, no one has the ability to consistently forecast any of the inevitable market corrections. Its probably best to ignore the short-term action and concentrate on being on the right side of the long-term trend.

Source: Buying Stocks Based on How Other People Feel

Wiggle or Wobble: Scotland?

Scotland has been part of the United Kingdom for over 300 years. On September 18th, they vote to determine whether they want independence from the Queen or not. The referendum was announced back in 2012 but nobody took it seriously because everybody assumed that it will be a NO vote for independence. But a poll released late Saturday showed pro-independence voters in the lead for the first time since the Scottish referendum campaign began. The British Pound collapsed to a 10-month low once reality dawned on the markets.

usd gbp

Executives from defense, financial-services and energy companies have all voiced concerns for the future shape of their respective industries amid surging support for independence. British defense officials have warned that warship production in Scotland could be affected. Oil and gas companies are worried, for instance, that an independent Scottish government would be more reliant on oil revenue for its budget than the larger U.K. has been. That could provide a temptation to squeeze more tax from companies if production keeps declining and tax revenue shrinks.

Unresolved questions concerning how much the amount of the U.K.’s debt an independent Scotland would assume, and how bond markets would rate that debt have brought huge uncertainty for financial-services companies.

Credit Suisse:

In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP)…

Citi:

Overall, we do not think that a “Yes” or “No” vote will have a significant impact, barring short-term risks, on prospects for UK equity market returns over the coming quarters.

So far, market jitters have been largely contained to the FX market. But will this wiggle turn into a wobble?

Sources:

Your Friends may be your Portfolio’s worst Enemy

Consider this:

  • People who live near each other increase their ownership of stocks around the same time.
  • 401(k) investors put more money into stocks when their co-workers have recently earned high returns that way.
  • Mutual-fund managers are more likely to invest in a company when other stock-pickers in the same city are also buying it.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller found that for 62% of individual investors and a shocking 75% of institutional investors, the decision to invest in stocks with hot recent returns had nothing to do with a “systematic search.”

Instead, these investors seemed to chase whatever grabbed their attention the most because other people were talking about it.

And it is not only in investing. “Group attention” – the experience of simultaneous co-attention with one’s group members – increases emotional intensity relative to attending alone. Greater fear, gloom, and glee is a result from group attention to scary, sad, and happy events, respectively.

Individuals come to feel more when they are together.

Sources:

Howard Marks on Risk

risk-return

Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital on risk:

We hear it all the time: “Riskier investments produce higher returns” and “If you want to make more money, take more risk.” Both of these formulations are terrible. In brief, if riskier investments could be counted on to produce higher returns, they wouldn’t be riskier.

You can read the whole thing here:

Weekly Recap: The One Big Bet of buy-and-hold

world.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.01%
CAC(FRA) +2.76%
UKX(GBR) +0.72%
NKY(JPN) +1.35%
SPX(USA) +0.49%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.63%
INMEX(MEX) +1.14%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.48%
XU030(TUR) +1.71%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +5.95%
NIFTY(IND) +1.67%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.67%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.20%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.73%
Ethanol -8.18%
Heating Oil -0.90%
Natural Gas -5.58%
RBOB Gasoline -6.24%
WTI Crude Oil -1.13%
Metals
Copper +0.96%
Gold 100oz -1.59%
Palladium -0.87%
Platinum -1.15%
Silver 5000oz -2.05%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.81% USDJPY:+1.33%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.35%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.12%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.17%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.00%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.04%
USDINR(IND) -0.18%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.87%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.59%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.42%
Cocoa -3.62%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.24%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.28%
Corn -4.01%
Cotton -1.55%
Feeder Cattle +3.42%
Lean Hogs +10.34%
Lumber -0.83%
Orange Juice -0.73%
Soybean Meal +1.53%
Soybeans +0.98%
Sugar #11 -3.65%
Wheat -4.14%
White Sugar -2.32%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.35%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.23%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.85%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +0.36%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.97%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.18%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -0.53%
Markit iTraxx Japan -3.44%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.00%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.00%
The energy complex took a major hit this week. While most investors were worried about inflation, it turns out that most central banks are barely winning the war against deflation. The ECB announced their version of Quantitative Easing, the missed employment numbers pushed rate hikes in the US farther out. And it looks like money continued to pour into equities.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Index Returns

indexperformance.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Market Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +1.33% 67/71
2 +4.14% 73/64
3 +3.09% 75/62
4 +4.68% 72/65
5 +4.56% 72/64
6 +4.59% 79/59
7 +3.92% 77/60
8 +3.25% 70/67
9 +3.46% 67/70
10 (mega) +2.07% 70/68
Midcaps outperformed large caps after spending nearly a month in the doghouse…

Top winners and losers

TATACHEM +9.88%
CROMPGREAV +11.91%
UPL +19.68%
BHEL -7.51%
MCDOWELL-N -4.79%
CONCOR -4.41%
Who put Tata Chemicals up there? And what’s up with UPL? FII’s can’t even buy the stock…

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +2.89%
CPSEETF +2.74%
INFRABEES +2.59%
NIFTYBEES +1.37%
BANKBEES +1.30%
PSUBNKBEES +0.18%
GOLDBEES -1.66%
No love for gold… equities FTW!

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-08-28.2014-09-05

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.01 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.10 -0.15%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.35 -1.15%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.23 -1.42%
Is the long-end reverting?

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-04.2014-09-05

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-04.2014-09-05

Thought for the weekend

Most investment policies today are Big Bets on world peace. The history of the 20th Century has shown that previously dominant empires can fall. In 1899, which was 15 years before the start of World War I, the Major Powers were:

  • Britain
  • Germany
  • France
  • Austro-Hungary
  • Russia

Here’s the cumulative return of a dollar invested in Austro-Hungarian market:

Austria returns

Britain was a dominant global power at the dawn of the 20th Century. The real return on $1 invested in British equities in 1899 is $372. France returned $36 in the same period. The US? $1,248. And the US was still a promising emerging market country at that time (as was Argentina.)

If you wanted to project equity risk and return expectations, what figure would you use? The US 1,248 real return, the British 372 or the French 36 real return figure?

Source: The One Big Bet made by most buy-and-hold portfolios