Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: You would have fired Keynes

world.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.42%
CAC(FRA) -0.79%
UKX(GBR) -1.22%
NKY(JPN) +0.93%
SPX(USA) -3.20%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.65%
INMEX(MEX) -4.70%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.84%
XU030(TUR) -2.36%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.57%
SHCOMP(CHN) -4.22%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +3.35%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +8.76%
Natural Gas -9.78%
RBOB Gasoline +9.15%
Heating Oil +2.68%
WTI Crude Oil +4.59%
Ethanol -4.48%
Metals
Gold 100oz -1.21%
Platinum -2.23%
Copper -0.39%
Palladium -0.48%
Silver 5000oz -6.52%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.39% USDJPY:-0.26%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.71%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.26%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.87%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.35%
USDINR(IND) +0.71%
USDRUB(RUS) +8.50%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.12%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.97%
Soybean Meal -0.93%
White Sugar -2.52%
Cocoa -1.70%
Corn -4.21%
Feeder Cattle -0.83%
Soybeans -1.54%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.56%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.80%
Lumber +4.47%
Wheat -5.64%
Cotton +3.58%
Lean Hogs -2.73%
Orange Juice -4.10%
Sugar #11 -2.50%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.47%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.41%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.80%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.99%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.67%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.18%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.11%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.12%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.38%
India got off lightly in the carnage this week.
US large-cap earnings were weak due to the rapid appreciation of the US Dollar.
Oil found a bid but precious metals were hit.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -8.74% 67/70
2 -7.77% 65/73
3 -4.87% 55/82
4 -4.92% 64/74
5 -2.13% 68/69
6 -3.39% 68/70
7 -0.75% 65/73
8 -0.09% 64/73
9 +0.30% 66/72
10 (mega) +2.15% 69/69
Large caps were the best performers …

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +10.98%
ADANIENT +11.25%
HINDPETRO +13.91%
UNIONBANK -16.81%
BANKBARODA -13.42%
BANKINDIA -9.53%
Bank earnings were a rude wake-up call about the true state of the current economy. Bad loans from the previous boom continue to haunt financials.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.07%
JUNIORBEES +1.04%
NIFTYBEES +0.31%
GOLDBEES +0.06%
CPSEETF -0.08%
BANKBEES -0.66%
PSUBNKBEES -4.44%
Given how poorly government owned enterprises are managed, why own any PSE at all?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-23.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.07 +0.13%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.14 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.05 +0.09%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.00 +0.21%
Unchanged.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

John Maynard Keynes was also an extraordinary investor. He was a fundamental, focused investor, similar to Warren Buffett in that he practiced buy and hold in a select group of stock holdings. But even with a small number of holdings he still tried to diversify his risks.

But given the volatility of his returns, there is no way investors would put up with this type of drawdowns in today’s investment world. Keynes would certainly be fired if he were managing money this way today.

Source: Would Keynes Have Been Fired as a Money Manager Today?

Correlation Update 31.01.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Electric Shocks

world.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.74%
CAC(FRA) +5.96%
UKX(GBR) +4.31%
NKY(JPN) +3.84%
SPX(USA) +2.19%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.41%
INMEX(MEX) +3.45%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.68%
XU030(TUR) +3.92%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.62%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.73%
NIFTY(IND) +3.78%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.05%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.81%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +7.34%
RBOB Gasoline +0.77%
Brent Crude Oil -1.73%
WTI Crude Oil -5.25%
Natural Gas -4.87%
Heating Oil -1.34%
Metals
Gold 100oz +1.57%
Platinum -0.02%
Copper -3.79%
Palladium +2.81%
Silver 5000oz +3.95%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.13% USDJPY:+0.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.04%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.28%
USDNGN(NGA) +3.07%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.75%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.34%
USDINR(IND) -0.71%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.42%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -6.85%
Orange Juice +0.44%
Sugar #11 -0.78%
Wheat -1.12%
White Sugar -1.18%
Cattle -2.87%
Corn +0.19%
Cotton -3.43%
Lumber -0.03%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.09%
Feeder Cattle -0.29%
Soybean Meal +1.41%
Cocoa -4.63%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.63%
Soybeans -1.82%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.18%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.60%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.34%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.79%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -22.27%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.84%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.29%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.08%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.30%
Markets rallied and the Euro tumbled on ECB’s 60bn QE program.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.90% 68/68
2 +0.87% 71/63
3 +2.38% 74/61
4 +0.11% 75/61
5 +1.42% 70/65
6 +1.20% 71/64
7 +3.52% 74/62
8 +1.50% 72/63
9 +2.00% 73/62
10 (mega) +2.91% 62/74
A broad-based rally driven by Eurozone EQ, falling oil, rate cuts, budget… Oh my!

Top Winners and Losers

TATAMOTORS +11.93%
BHARTIARTL +12.03%
ADANIENT +12.70%
M&MFIN -18.22%
SRTRANSFIN -5.98%
PETRONET -4.61%
The Adani stable was on fire this week…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +6.67%
BANKBEES +4.46%
NIFTYBEES +3.59%
GOLDBEES +1.78%
JUNIORBEES +1.77%
CPSEETF +0.64%
PSUBNKBEES +0.27%
No asset left behind…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.11 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.06 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 -0.05%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.11%
Weird that the long end of the curve ended the week in the red.

Investment Theme Performance

Large-cap dominance drove CNX 100 Tactical this week. Momentum was not far behind…

Thought for the weekend

Research:

Study participants from a range of ages generally did not enjoy spending even brief periods of time alone in a room with nothing to do but think, ponder or daydream. The participants, by and large, enjoyed much more doing external activities such as listening to music or using a smartphone. Some even preferred to give themselves mild electric shocks than to think.

Source: Most people are just not comfortable in their own heads

Correlation Update 24.01.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Your Portfolio Correlations

We often like to quote Howard Marks before we begin any discussion on diversification:

If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you;
If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.

Irrespective of what your preference is, you can now track it on StockViz. Head over to Portfolio and click on ‘Analytics.’ You should see one-year and one-month correlation charts of your portfolio right away. These are updated overnight.

Here’s how my one-month correlation chart looks like. How does yours look like?