Category: Your Money

Apollo-Cooper Breakup: Winner is Morgan Stanley!

Can’t make this stuff up. Morgan Stanley, that was acting as one of the financial advisers to Apollo, ended up being the ultimate winner in the whole kerfunkel.

APOLLOTYRE

On just the 2.7M shares it bought in July, it ended up making Rs.104M in 6 months. So, did they bet on the collapse of the very deal that they were advising? Smells funny…

Sources:
Morgan Stanley buys 0.5% stake
Morgan Stanley Asia sells 46.50 lakh shares of Apollo Tyres

Related:
Apollo Tyres: Buyer’s Remorse, Part III

Placebo Effects in Music, Wine, Medicine and Finance

I recently came across a few articles that got my wheels turning about the placebo effect in our lives. The placebo effect is the measurable, observable, or felt improvement in health or behavior not attributable to a medication or invasive treatment that has been administered. Although its origins are in medical research, researchers have observed it in other domains as well.

 

Are you listening to the equipment or the music?

The best headphones go for more than $1000, and the best amplifiers and related devices are many times that. But can you really tell the difference in quality between a $50 headset and a $500 one? How much of the difference is explained purely by the price tag?

Source: Placebo-philes

Did you know that for wine, price and quality are negatively correlated?

If you know what the wine you’re tasting is, if you know where it comes from, if you know who made it, if you’ve met the winemaker, and in general, if you know how expensive it is — then that knowledge deeply affects — nearly always to the upside — the way in which you taste and appreciate the wine in question.

Source: How money can buy happiness, wine edition

Doctors want to ban Homeopathy in the UK

A 2010 House of Commons Science and Technology Committee report on homeopathy said that homeopathic remedies perform no better than placebos, and that the principles on which homeopathy is based are ‘scientifically implausible’. However, millions of people suffering from chronic pain swear by their daily intake of diluted sugar tablets.

Source: NHS

Doctors confuse what they believe with what they know

Researchers have found that partial meniscectomy, where surgeons trim and remove torn pieces of the meniscus, is pointless. Researchers in Finland who studied two sets of patients—one that received the surgery, and another that was led to believe that it had—observed no significant differences in improvement between the groups after one year.

Source: Fake Knee Surgery as Good as Real Procedure

 

Technical analysis could be the placebo at work

Researchers believe that both technical analysis and folk medicine have strong potentials for statistical bias: the placebo effect for folk medicine and data snooping for technical analysis. Survival bias ensures that only the winners tell the story about how good it works. While the losers go back to allopathic medication (in the case of medicine) or their jobs (in the case of trading.)

Source: Technical Analysis as Folk Medicine

Monthly Recap: Financial Research

Nifty monthly heatmap

The Nifty ended the month +2.23% (+2.78% in USD terms)

Index Performance

IT and Realty indices stole the show…

monthly index performance

Top winners and losers

GLAXO +18.53%
BOSCHLTD +19.74%
INDHOTEL +29.48%
PETRONET -7.93%
ULTRACEMCO -7.22%
NTPC -6.79%
Glaxo shot up on the back of the buyback offer from its parent. Bosch, however, seems to be on a ride of it own…

ETFs

INFRABEES +4.79%
JUNIORBEES +4.45%
PSUBNKBEES +3.55%
BANKBEES +2.64%
NIFTYBEES +2.34%
GOLDBEES -4.61%
Infrastructure and banks continued to rock. Gold fell out of favour.

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

Rates rose across the curve, but more so on the long-end…

india yield curve

Investment Theme Performance

The best performing strategy was small-cap value…

*Contributed Themes

Sector Performance

monthly sector performance

Thought of the month

Magic is based on belief in a set of rituals. A person will only consult a magician if they have faith in the actions that the magician will perform. Science is not based on belief in its theorems, the equivalent of magic’s rituals, but on a belief in the process by which science is created.

Source: Finance + Research

Weekly Recap: Source of Returns

nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty ended the week up +0.63% (+0.93% in USD terms)

Index Performance

The biggest performers were real-estate and banks…

weekly index performance

Top winners and losers

BANKINDIA +9.55%
BOSCHLTD +11.21%
APOLLOHOSP +13.04%
MCDOWELL-N -4.80%
UBL -2.20%
HEROMOTOCO -1.97%
The Mallya empire took a hit on the back of the high-court verdict overturning the Diageo deal… But what a move in Bosch. And Apollo Hospitals staged a remarkable U-turn after sliding for more than 3 months…

ETFs

INFRABEES +2.63%
BANKBEES +1.65%
PSUBNKBEES +1.12%
JUNIORBEES +0.83%
NIFTYBEES +0.67%
GOLDBEES -0.57%
Infrastructure – the most hated sector just a few months ago, seems to be back on the radar…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

The short-end of the curve seems to be moving up. Is the market expecting a rate-hike in Jan?

india yield curve

Investment Theme Performance

style=”color:green”>+2.83%Market Fliers+2.47%Market Elephants+2.31%Efficient Growth+2.04%Enterprise Yield+1.02%Velocity+0.57%Long Term Equity+0.27%ADAG Mania+0.22%Momentum 200-0.21%

A week where both high-beta and low-beta portfolios rallied. Is the participation finally getting broader?

Sector Performance

Cyclical stocks stole the show…

weekly sector performance

Thought for the Weekend

For a given set of environmental contingencies–e.g., history, culture, demographics, etc.–the equity allocation preference is mean reverting. It rises in expansionary parts of the cycle, as people become more optimistic about the future and more eager to maximize what they see as attractive returns, and it falls in contractionary parts of the cycle, as people become less optimistic about the future and more concerned about protecting themselves from losses.

Source: Where do returns come from?

Indian REITs – Why You Should Care

The SEBI and the RBI are almost done with finalizing the regulation around REITs. Here’s a quick primer of what’s in store.

What are REITs?

REIT stands for Real Estate Investment Trusts. It is a company that mainly owns, and in most cases, operates income-producing real estate such as apartments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and warehouses. The shares of REITs can be listed on a stock exchange and can be traded just like any other stock or ETF.

How are REITs structured in India

Size

The size of the assets under the REIT shall not be less than Rs. 1000 crore which is expected to ensure that initially only large assets and established players enter the market.

Public participation

Minimum IPO size should be Rs. 250 crore and minimum public float should be 25%. Initially, till the market develops, the units of the REITs may be offered only to HNIs/institutions and therefore, the minimum subscription size shall be Rs. 2 lakhs and the unit size shall be Rs. 1 lakh.

Regulatory requirements

The REIT can only invest in assets based in India.

The manager needs to have at least 5 years of related experience coupled with other requirements such as minimum networth, manpower with sufficient relevant experience, etc.

The sponsor of the REIT will have to maintain a certain percentage holding in the REIT to ensure a “skin-in-the-game” at all times.

90% of the value of the REIT assets shall be in completed revenue generating properties.

90% of the net distributable income after tax of the REIT should be distributed to the investors.

The REIT cannot invest in vacant land or agricultural land or mortgages. But can hold mortgage backed securities.

The aggregate consolidated borrowings and deferred payments of the REIT have been capped at 50% of the value of the REIT assets.

The NAV should be declared at least twice a year.

You can read the full set of regulations on the SEBI website (pdf).

Who is likely to benefit?

Real estate developers might see a benefit in terms of reduced funding costs in the short-term. Mall-operators might choose to offload some of their properties into the new structure.

There might be a brief period of disruption as pricing information becomes public and developers lose their ability to exploit information asymmetry. The rent-vs-own argument gets new data points as well.

For the long-term, this gives investors the ability to gain liquid exposure to an otherwise illiquid asset class. Instead of trying to develop a multi-tenant apartment block yourself, you can just go buy a REIT for a lot less headache.

Watch for companies like Brigade and DLF to move their serviced apartments and malls into the new structure. And maybe push some unsold inventory as well. [stockquote]DLF[/stockquote] [stockquote]BRIGADE[/stockquote]