Author: shyam

The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers

In a paper published in January 2002, Joseph Piotroski explored whether a simple accounting-based fundamental analysis strategy can give better returns to an investor. He came up with a way to score balance-sheets based on financial strength – the higher the score, the better were the prospective returns. Scientifically curious readers can take a look at Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers (pdf)

We created a Theme based on this score. Basically, balance-sheets are scored based on current profitability, stability and operational improvements for two years (using 3 years of data.) The rationale is that stocks that score high on these criteria should out-perform over a period of time.

You can take a look at the this theme here: Financial Strength Value

Similar themes: Magic Formula Investing, Quality to Price, Balance-sheet Strength.
[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

Prabhudas Lilladher’s top 15 largecap ideas

Prabhudas Lilladher came out with a research report yesterday that picked 15 large-cap stocks that looked good. Can these stocks out-perform the Nifty? How would a portfolio of these stocks perform over a period of time? Is the hit ratio any better than 50/50? Well, we created a Theme that tracks this portfolio. So dood-ka-dood, pani-ka-pani.

Check out the Theme here: Prabhudas Lilladher Largecap 13-Sept-2013

Previously: Prabhudas Lilladher Midcap 10-Sept-2013
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Balance-sheet Strength

We saw how you can use quantitative methods to score balance-sheets with the STA, SNOA and PROBM models. When you put them all together, you get a portfolio of stocks with incredibly strong (and believable) balance-sheets. We put together a Theme that tracks such a portfolio of stocks.

Check out the “Balance-sheet Strength” theme – a portfolio of 20, equally weighted stocks for the value investor in you.

Stocks to avoid based on this model:

PIIND [stockquote]PIIND[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
SHASUNPHAR [stockquote]SHASUNPHAR[/stockquote]
APARINDS [stockquote]APARINDS[/stockquote]
CCL [stockquote]CCL[/stockquote]
EIDPARRY [stockquote]EIDPARRY[/stockquote]
VINATIORGA [stockquote]VINATIORGA[/stockquote]
NAVNETPUBL [stockquote]NAVNETPUBL[/stockquote]
APLAPOLLO [stockquote]APLAPOLLO[/stockquote]
AVTNPL [stockquote]AVTNPL[/stockquote]

Note: we ignored stocks that don’t had 3 years worth of statements.

Prabhudas Lilladher’s top 8 midcap ideas

Prabhudas Lilladher came out with a research report yesterday that picked 8 mid-cap stocks that looked good. Can these stocks out-perform the Nifty? How would an equally weighted portfolio of these stocks perform over a period of time? Is the hit ratio any better than 50/50? Well, we created a Theme that tracks this portfolio. So dood-ka-dood, pani-ka-pani.

Check out the Theme here: “Prabhudas Lilladher Midcap 10-Sept-2013

Previously: CS Midcap 28-Aug-2013
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Weekly Recap: Manufactured Complexity

nifty weekly performance

The Nifty rallied 3.81% this week, largely on the back of the new RBI Governor’s “Big Bang” entry.

Index Performance

Banks rallied on the back of RBI’s FX swaps that is expected to bring in $10bn from non-resident deposits.

index performance

Top Winners and Losers

ICICIBANK +19.24%
BHEL +19.54%
YESBANK +20.38%
SESAGOA -7.02%
TATAPOWER -6.66%
HEROMOTOCO -5.68%
Say Yes to Yes Bank? After spending most of 2013 in the boondocks, it appears that RBI’s measures was what the market was waiting for…

ETFs

BANKBEES +10.04%
NIFTYBEES +4.09%
JUNIORBEES +2.48%
INFRABEES +1.53%
GOLDBEES -1.79%
PSUBNKBEES -8.24%
PSU (State-owned) banks did not feel the same love that private banks felt. Gold is probably more exposed to currency fluctuations than the macro at this point…

Advancers and Decliners

Are we at the cusp of a breakthrough here?

advance decline

Yield Curve

Rates ended lower across the curve but the term-structure remains inverted.
yield curve

Sector Performance

IT corrected and banks rallied…
sector performance

Thought for the weekend

For all their great work, it is unclear that economists have actually helped government officials manage the complex task of managing a national economy any better than they ever have. We are bedeviled by manufactured complexity — complexity that could have been avoided but has instead been amplified by the pursuit of narrow knowledge in a broad world.

Source: Our Self-Inflicted Complexity