Author: shyam

Are You Feeling Lucky? The Return on Capital Edition

The markets have corrected a lot over the past couple of weeks. And some of you may be considering jumping in to “buy the dip.” If a plain vanilla index ETF like the Nifty Bees is not your cup of tea, consider these stocks, ranked based on historical Return on Capital (ROC), as the first filter:

COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]
ONGC [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote]
ASIANPAINT [stockquote]ASIANPAINT[/stockquote]
ITC [stockquote]ITC[/stockquote]
ULTRACEMCO [stockquote]ULTRACEMCO[/stockquote]
TTKPRESTIG [stockquote]TTKPRESTIG[/stockquote]
SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]
PAGEIND [stockquote]PAGEIND[/stockquote]

Banking Stress Charted

2s10s

The last time the yield curve inverted – the difference between the 10 year and the 2 year went negative – in recent memory was back in Feb 2012.

Surprisingly, no apparent correlation with bank stocks though.

So what gives?

Weekly Recap: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

NIFTY.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

The Nifty went down 1.04% for the week, but yesterday was the proverbial “Black Friday” with the index tanking -4.08% in one day.

Index Performance

Banks were the worst hit with NPAs coming to roost. Plus the CBI is investigating debt restructurings that were a bet too promoter friendly.

indexperf.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Top winners and losers

ABIRLANUVO +8.71%
IDEA +8.83%
TATAMOTORS +12.61%
BHEL -10.09%
TITAN -9.05%
YESBANK -8.74%
Titan was the lamb to the slaughter with the RBI and the Finance Ministry hell bent on curbing jewelry sales. Idea continued to baffle sane investors.

ETFs

GOLDBEES +8.50%
INFRABEES -0.10%
NIFTYBEES -0.76%
JUNIORBEES -1.24%
BANKBEES -3.46%
PSUBNKBEES -11.62%
Banks got no respite while paper gold surged. How long before the government annexes the gold in the gold ETFs?

Advancers and Decliners

adline2.2013-08-09.2013-08-16

Yield Curve

The yield curve continued to shift up. Maturities out 5 years mostly flat but short-term looks stressed.

yieldCurve.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Sector Performance

2-3 wheelers over-turned their last week’s under-performance.

sectorperf.2013-08-08.2013-08-16

Thought for the Weekend

Linear thinking is dangerous. It is the easiest form of reasoning, lying on the path of least resistance. The simpler the path, the more readily people will march along it. Linear arguments are easy to make, as they require the least amount of evidence — past data points with a straight line drawn through them. However, the larger the crowd that follows the wrong line of reasoning, the more people pile in, and the greater the consequences if they are proved wrong.

Source: Ben Bernanke: Buy One Suit, Get Three Free

 

Weekly Recap: I don’t know

Nify heatmap

The Nifty continued its slide, down -1.98%. Some of the beaten down sectors staged a dead-cat bounce. The new RBI governor is likely to follow Brazil and Turkey in hiking short-term rates to stabilize the currency and tame inflation. Meanwhile, overly leveraged business are going to take a hit. Not to mention the worsening of the payment situation in the infrastructure and real-estate sectors.

Index Performance

Nifty Index performance

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +17.08%
PFC +17.64%
RANBAXY +31.53%
BHEL -21.52%
ASIANPAINT -13.40%
GSKCONS -11.27%
Ranbaxy was the turn-around story of the year (so far…) It appears that investors are finally able to overlook short-term challenges and look at longer-term growth.

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +3.41%
GOLDBEES +1.38%
PSUBNKBEES -0.76%
NIFTYBEES -2.48%
INFRABEES -4.42%
BANKBEES -5.98%
Banks continued to get crushed.

Advancers and Decliners

Not a bull in sight…
advancers-decliners

Yield Curve

The yield curve seems to have stabilized. However the RBI did announce further liquidity tightening measures after the markets closed yesterday.
yield curve

Sector Performance

sector performance

Thought for the weekend

Sometimes I am asked things I could not possibly know, particularly about the future. Rather than guess, I believe the best approach is to admit the truth, then plan accordingly. The alternative is to do what too many people do: Make predictions, then marry those forecasts. This usually leads to catastrophic results.

Source: On the Value of Not Knowing

Weekly Recap: The Blip

NIFTY.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

The Nifty went down on both knees, down -3.54%, and Financial Tech and MCX got bentIT was once again the best performing sector, benefiting from the Rupee’s slide.

Index Performance

indexperf.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

 

Top winners and losers (CNX 100)

 

LUPIN +4.22%
BAJAJHLDNG +4.28%
TITAN +8.13%
JPASSOCIAT -28.78%
DLF -25.47%
PFC -19.20%
Investors were willing to ignore compressed margin at Titan and ramped the stock higher. DLF reflected the credit crunch in real-estate and infra.

ETFs

BANKBEES +0.86%
GOLDBEES +0.49%
INFRABEES +0.47%
NIFTYBEES -2.36%
PSUBNKBEES -2.76%
JUNIORBEES -6.72%
Banks tried to stage a comeback but the Junior Nifty got dragged down by the troubles at Financial Tech.

Advancers and Decliners

A lot of breakage here. Tread carefully.
adline2.2013-07-26.2013-08-02

Yield Curve

Yield curve

The yield curve remained inverted with long term rates trending higher.

Sector Performance

Sector perfornamce

Though for the weekend

During the whole modern era from 1750 onward—which contains, not coincidentally, the full life span of the United States—human well-being accelerated at a rate that could barely have been contemplated before. Instead of permanent stagnation, growth became so rapid and so seemingly automatic that by the fifties and sixties the average American would roughly double his or her parents’ standard of living. In the space of a single generation, for most everybody, life was getting twice as good.

At some point in the late sixties or early seventies, this great acceleration began to taper off. The shift was modest at first, and it was concealed in the hectic up-and-down of yearly data. But if you examine the growth data since the early seventies, and if you are mathematically astute enough to fit a curve to it, you can see a clear trend: The rate at which life is improving here, on the frontier of human well-being, has slowed.

Source: The Blip