Author: shyam

Pedal to the Metal

We are in the middle of what can be best described as the most hated rally of all time. Retail investors have been sellers, having seen similar highs three times already. And economists, who should know better than to opine about the stock-markets, have labeled the rally as “without underlying fundamentals.”

But seasoned investors will know that the market is forward looking and its default setting is “optimism.” Who knows when this rally will end? But as long as it lasts, its time to press as hard on the accelerator as you can.

Go High Beta!

We created an Investment Theme a few days ago that consists of a portfolio of fairly liquid high beta stocks. It has beaten the cr@p out of every other portfolio so far. You can have a look at the theme here: Market Fliers

 
[stockquote]PRECOT[/stockquote]

Investors buy more following a CNBC interview conducted by an attractive anchorwoman

Some of the academic research we follow here at StockViz show how bizarre human decision making is. Consider this fine example (pdf):

  • Investors get excited by the pre-announcement of the interview and ramp shares higher: from days -2 to 0 (interview day) firms experience a positive 4-factor abnormal return of 1.62%
  • Then experience a negative abnormal return of -1.08% over the next ten days.
  • There is abnormal amount of trading by individual investors on days the CEO is interviewed by CNBC.
  • They keep on buying if the interview was both carried out by attractive anchorwoman and was watched by more male viewers.

It seems that we use a different head to trade when we see attractive women…

Weekly Recap: Headlines

Nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty ended the week up +2.64% (+2.18% in USD terms)

Index Performance

Banks stole the show and how!

index performance

Top winners and losers

PFC +14.84%
PNB +14.94%
BANKINDIA +21.81%
UBL -6.87%
ITC -3.53%
DABUR -3.18%
Its probably the first time Power Finance Corp made it to the top of this list…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +13.39%
BANKBEES +6.43%
NIFTYBEES +2.55%
INFRABEES +2.47%
JUNIORBEES +2.09%
GOLDBEES -3.17%
Banks, Banks, Banks…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

Must have been a snooze fest on the bonds desks…

india yield curve

Interbank Rates

interbank lending rates

Sector Performance

sector performance

Investment Theme Performance

This week belonged to value portfolios…

Thought for the weekend

headlines

Source: xkcd

Monthly Recap: The Fallacy of Success

nifty monthly performance heatmap

The Nifty went completely bonkers this month: +9.83% (+12.28% in USD terms)

Index Performance

Banks stole the show…

index performance

Top winners and losers

BANKINDIA +32.89%
JPASSOCIAT +36.53%
ADANIENT +47.53%
CIPLA -4.46%
EXIDEIND -3.52%
MPHASIS -3.50%
High beta took flight…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +19.26%
BANKBEES +17.78%
NIFTYBEES +9.22%
INFRABEES +6.94%
JUNIORBEES +6.67%
GOLDBEES +0.83%
PSU Banks showed how government backed entities don’t have to create value for their stock prices to go up…

Advancers and Declines

The A/D line is finally trending up… longer, stronger, better?

advance decline line

Yield Curve

Is the yield curve finally pricing in growth?

india yield curve

Interbank Rates

mumbai interbank rates

Sector Performance

monthly sector performance

Investment Theme Performance

Value out-performed story themes…

Thought to sum up the month

There has appeared in our time a particular class of books and articles which I sincerely and solemnly think may be called the silliest ever known among men. They are much more wild than the wildest romances of chivalry and much more dull than the dullest religious tract. Moreover, the romances of chivalry were at least about chivalry; the religious tracts are about religion. But these things are about nothing; they are about what is called Success.

Source: THE FALLACY OF SUCCESS
[stockquote]NEULANDLAB[/stockquote]