Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Poverty Thoughts

Nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty shot up +3.01% (+4.05% in USD terms) this week. Midcaps and banks led the way…

Index Performance

index weekly performance

Top Winners and Losers

BHEL +14.00%
CROMPGREAV +15.70%
JPASSOCIAT +16.16%
APOLLOHOSP -4.57%
MPHASIS -3.21%
BHARTIARTL -2.65%
JP Associates did a parabolic up-move… next stop: infinity!

ETFs

BANKBEES +4.50%
NIFTYBEES +2.86%
INFRABEES +2.41%
PSUBNKBEES +2.30%
JUNIORBEES +1.94%
GOLDBEES -0.14%
Banks stole the show, followed by infrastructure… the market might be smelling a turnaround and likes it!

Advancers and Decliners

Can you spot the small uptick in sentiment?

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

india yield curve

Interbank Rates

mibor interbank rates

Investment Theme Performance

High beta outperformed while Velocity lagged… regime change in progress?

Sector Performance

Why in the name of God are textile stocks rallying? I thought we long since ceded to industry to Bangladesh and Vietnam?

india weekly sector performance

Thought for the Weekend

Heart wrenching:

You have to understand that we know that we will never not feel tired. We will never feel hopeful. We will never get a vacation. Ever. We know that the very act of being poor guarantees that we will never not be poor. It doesn’t give us much reason to improve ourselves.

Source: Why I Make Terrible Decisions, or, poverty thoughts

Sunday Long Reads

Could hangovers soon be a thing of the past?

Imagine an alcohol substitute that removes all negative effects associated with drinking, intoxication, and even the dreaded morning after. “So in theory we can make an alcohol surrogate that makes people feel relaxed and sociable and remove the unwanted effects, such as aggression and addictiveness.”

The wet cure

Has democracy actually done more harm than good?

Meet the neoreactionaries: mostly former libertarians who decided that freedom and democracy were incompatible. “Demotist systems, that is, systems ruled by the ‘People,’ such as Democracy and Communism, are predictably less financially stable than aristocratic systems. On average, they undergo more recessions and hold more debt. They are more susceptible to market crashes. They waste more resources. Each dollar goes further towards improving standard of living for the average person in an aristocratic system than in a Democratic one.”

Geeks for Monarchy: The Rise of the Neoreactionaries

Kill The Aid Industry

Donated clothes decimate local textile industries. Shells of buildings, silted dams, and unfinished “pilot projects” dot the African landscape. Young white people flock to expensive hotels for useless “conferences” that amount to paid exotic vacations. Peace Corps yahoos are flown out at great cost to teach Western hairdressing […] But aid’s worst consequence is the continuation, and amplification, of the attitude that change must always come from outside.

Let’s Kill The Aid Industry

The basic income movement

With globalisation, the share going to labour has withered everywhere, in countries as diverse as China, India, the UK, USA and Norway. In the future, the only way those relying on labour could raise their living standards will be by sharing the rental income gained by finance and capital investment in the global economy. We must imagine a new system of distribution, in which the whole of society receives a share of the rental income currently being taken wholly by financial capital.

The precariat needs a basic income

Are markets ever rational?

For markets to be efficient, we need to enable all 3 types of market participants:

  1. Fundamental/value investors
  2. Relative value investors or arbitrageurs
  3. Speculators

Each of these investor type plays a different and necessary role in ensuring that a well-functioning market is able keep the cost of capital low, absorb financial risks, and allocate capital efficiently to its more productive use. A well-balanced market is relatively stable and allocates capital in an efficient way that maximizes long-term economic growth.

When are markets ‘rational’?

Weekly Recap: Mathematics, Common Sense, and Good Luck

nifty weekly performance heatmap

Nifty ended the week down -1.00% (-0.94% in USD terms). Media and pharma dragged.

Index Performance

weekly index performance

Top winners and losers

MCDOWELL-N +4.67%
CROMPGREAV +4.91%
CUMMINSIND +6.81%
ZEEL -8.67%
SSLT -8.65%
BAJAJ-AUTO -7.15%
Taper much? Bajaj Auto: a parabolic up move followed by an equally swift down-move (what were they smoking?)

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +1.36%
INFRABEES -0.64%
GOLDBEES -0.65%
JUNIORBEES -0.84%
NIFTYBEES -0.88%
BANKBEES -1.65%
PSU Banks – they are so bad that they are good…

Advancers and Decliners

Have all the weak hands finally been shaken out?

advancers and decliners

Yield Curve

india yield curve

Interbank Rates

mibor interbank lending rates

Investment Theme Performance

High beta got crushed, and the market discovered value…

Thought for the weekend

Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies:

I’ll tell you some guiding principles that I think would work very well:
One thing I’ve always done is do something new.
Second, collaborate with the best people you possibly can.
Be guided by beauty.
Don’t give up.
Finally, hope for some good luck.

Source: Secret Sauce: Jim Simons on Life and Building a Business

Global PMI Roundup

The Flash numbers came out yesterday. Here’s what you need to know:

US

PMI rebounds to eight-month high in November. Data confirms ongoing modest improvement in manufacturing business conditions.

US nov 2013 flash pmi

Eurozone

PMI signals slowing growth for second successive month in November. Composite Output Index is at a 3-month low, manufacturing is at a 2-month low.

Eurozone nov 2013 flash pmi

Germany

Composite Output Index is at a 10-month high. Manufacturing is at a 29-month high.

germany nov 2013 flash pmi

France

French private sector economy slips back into contraction. Composite Output Index is at a 5-month low, manufacturing is at a 6-month low.

france nov 2013 flash pmi

Source: Markit

Quick! Throw your money away now!

Are we witnessing the rise Neo-Socialism? The words change, the data-set is new, but the story remains the same:

 

With globalisation, the share going to labour has withered everywhere, in countries as diverse as China, India, the UK, USA and Norway. In the future, the only way those relying on labour could raise their living standards will be by sharing the rental income gained by finance and capital investment in the global economy. We must imagine a new system of distribution, in which the whole of society receives a share of the rental income currently being taken wholly by financial capital.

 

Plus, there is a new acronym to be worried about, ESC (Economic Stabilisation Credit) aka individual, unconditional basic income.

Read the whole thing here.