Author: shyam

Mutual fund positioning: Feb 2014

We are trying to figure out if tracking mutual fund purchase and sell decisions can help us be better investors. What fund managers do, vs. what they say, can provide insights into their decision making process. Here are their biggest moves in February this year:

Five month aggregates

mf removed

Reversals: Reliance(+), Bank of Baroda(), Petronet(+)

mf added

Reversals: TCS(+), State Bank of India(+), Titan(+), Cadila Healthcare(+)
 
 
NOTE:

  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered

Weekly Recap: Buying More Stuff Makes You Miserable

world equity markets 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

The Nifty ended the week -0.34% (-1.21% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.15%
CAC(FRA) -3.44%
UKX(GBR) -2.75%
NKY(JPN) -6.20%
SPX(USA) -1.84%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.11%
INMEX(MEX) -2.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.01%
XU030(TUR) +0.47%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.52%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.60%
NIFTY(IND) -0.34%
INDEXCF(RUS) -7.61%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.35%

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY heatmap 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Index Performance

index performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Top winners and losers

CUMMINSIND +6.26%
BPCL +6.41%
IDFC +8.66%
INFY -9.25%
SAIL -9.13%
SSLT -7.94%
Infosys got whacked on muted growth outlook and Sesa on falling commodity prices thanks to a slowing China. Cummins: a well managed cap stock with a strong balance sheet that is transitioning from a value stock to a momentum stock.

ETFs

INFRABEES +10.26%
PSUBNKBEES +2.75%
BANKBEES +0.70%
GOLDBEES +0.54%
JUNIORBEES -1.36%
NIFTYBEES -1.50%
Infrastructure, the last two weeks has seen a reversal of fortunes. Will it last?

Advancers and Decliners

ad line 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Investment Theme Performance

The tech-heavy momentum strategies under performed. Mid-tier IT stocks were the worst.

Sector Performance

sector performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Thought for the weekend

Instead of making us happier, getting more stuff drags us down. In a new paper published in the journal Motivation and Emotion, Knox College psychology professor Tim Kasser shows, through a series of experiments spanning from six months to 12 years, that when people become more materialistic, their emotional well-being takes a dive.

The connection between our stuff and our self-esteem is a two-way street: If we become less materialistic, our well-being will improve. If our well-being improves, we tend to be less materialistic.

Source: Here’s Proof Buying More Stuff Actually Makes You Miserable

Takeaways: Day Trading in Taiwan

day-trader-geek

Found a paper that came out in May 2011 that studied the skill distribution of day traders in Taiwan an interesting read. Here are some excerpts.

Study period: from 1992 to 2006

Interest area: First, the authors are interested in analyzing the cross-section of speculator skill, and day traders, given their short holding period, are almost certainly speculators. Second, the signal-to-noise ratio regarding investor skill arguably is greater for day traders than for investors with longer holding periods. Finally, day traders incur substantial trading costs and receive quick feedback about their trading ability.

Shyam here: I am not sure about the second part. You cannot compare skill levels based on returns across different holding periods – apples to oranges.

In the average year, about 360,000 Taiwanese individuals engage in day trading and about 15% of these day traders earn abnormal returns net of fees. Of course, some outperformance would be expected by sheer luck. However, about 1,000 day traders (less than 1% of the total population of day traders) are able to predictably outperform.

Conclusion: The most profitable day traders are not liquidity providers, as they tend to place aggressive orders in
anticipation of price moves. The most successful are heavy day traders with a history of profits who are willing to short and who concentrate in a few stocks.

Source: The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill Evidence from Day Trading (pdf)

Malls Leapfrogged

Jack-Black-and-Michael-Ce-001

Emerging markets’ lagging technology adoption is considered an advantage. They are less inhibited by entrenched intermediate technology and can leapfrog to a state-of-the-art technology. For example, in India, mobile phones have substituted traditional fixed networks. Orissa electrified approximately 2,000 villages using decentralized solar power, biomass, wind power and a variety of small-scale hydropower projects. Why has retail commerce lagged behind?

Before the internet, malls offered the convenience of having a whole bunch of shops in one place. People can drive to a mall, park their cars, take breaks during shopping, probably even have a meal and then drive back home. What sounds like a typical American suburban ideal is a nightmare in the Indian context. Drive, park, deal with pesky salesmen, have junk for lunch, and then drive back? No thanks!

The leapfrog

Decline of malls in America

During the past few years, foot traffic in retail shopping malls has been declining. More American consumers are busier than ever and have less free time to shop in stores. Smartphones, tablets, conference calls, email, social networking, and video streaming all help to provide more efficient communication, but at the same time contribute to the limited capacity of the U.S. consumer for other endeavors. More and more, consumer preferences are shifting toward what can be done quickly and efficiently, and, ideally, what can be done from home or on the road when it comes to shopping.

Source: Have you been to the mall lately?

deadmalls.com

“Within ten to fifteen years, the typical U.S. mall, unless it is completely reinvented, will be a historical anachronism—a sixty-year aberration that no longer meets the public’s needs, the retailers’ needs, or the community’s needs.”

Source: Are Malls Over?

Is Costco losing the millennials?

A member of the millennial generation is highly unlikely to be a Costco customer. A car is all but a necessity for the typical “stock up” visit to Costco, and compared to older generations, millennials tend to not own cars and don’t seem to want to own cars. Most Costco stores are in suburban locations, while millennials tend to prefer urban living, and even if they are among the relatively few of their peers who could afford to buy a home, home ownership is less important to them than it was to their parents and grandparents as young adults. So … if you don’t have a car, and you don’t have the money or interest to stock up on two years’ worth of paper towels or mustard, and you wouldn’t have the space in your apartment to store this kind of stuff even if you wanted to, then there’s not much sense in shopping at Costco.

Source: Will millennials kill Costco?

e-commerce > malls?

An estimated 120 new malls have come up in the country over the last two years, of which 30-40 have either shut down or became non-functional due to poor footfalls and poor management. Meanwhile, capital continues to pour into e-commerce companies. Since Jan 2013, e-tailers have raised about Rs. 5,190cr.

Source: Over two dozen failed malls up for sale in metro cities

Will India leapfrog malls to e-commerce? We already give a puzzled look when people give us land-line numbers, will malls soon become a similar anachronism?