Author: shyam

The deadliest buzzwords

dilbert

Aswath Damodaran has an awesome post on wading through the deadliest buzzwords that are most frequently used by investors to distract and delude themselves and others. I am going to give you the headlines here, header over the real deal after the fold.

Optionality

Question that you should ask yourself:

Does the company in question has the exclusive or close-to-exclusive right to expand into new markets? This exclusivity can come from owning a proprietary technology or possessing an exclusive license to operate in a market.

Growth Potential

Question that you should ask yourself:

To create value, you need to earn excess returns while growing, and to earn those excess returns, you need barriers to entry and competition. Does the company’s competitive advantages allow it to create value from that growth.

Strategic considerations

Question that you should ask yourself:

Can you convert the qualitative benefits into earnings and cash flows?

Disruptive

Question that you should ask yourself:

Is there dissatisfaction with the status quo, either on the consumer side or on the producer side?

 
Source: If it is a strategic growth investment in China, the numbers don’t matter! Or do they?
 
 
 

Leapfrogging Indian Labor Laws

A lot of ink gets spilt on the intractable nature of Indian labor laws. Indian labor laws are considered by many as a retarding factor of growth. Inflexible labor market regulations are believed to be hindering large-scale investments, technology absorption, productivity enhancement and high employment growth in Indian manufacturing. Inflexible labour market could also be one of the reasons for the share of manufacturing in Gross Domestic Capital Formation hovering around 30% since 1970s, and growth in share of services sector in GDCF from 39% in 1970 to 51% in 2010.

hiring and firing

However, what if, we have reached a point where it doesn’t matter anymore?

robots per 10000 employees in manufacturing

Indian labor laws exist to protect current employees. But what if entire new production lines are setup without having to employ labor at all?

What if, instead of this:

people

We start with this:

robots

Industrial robot manufacturers are reporting between 18% and 25% growth in orders and revenue year on year.

Even newspaper articles are being written by algos. An algorithm called Quakebot is programmed to extract relevant data from USGS earthquake reports and plug it into a pre-written template. The story goes into the LAT’s content management system, where it awaits review and publication by a human editor. Narrative Science, a company that trains computers to write news stories, predicts that in the next 15 years, 90% of news would be written by computers.

Connecting the dots, we can imagine a future where our existing idea of a “corporation” might appear quaint.

Corporations can be thought of as information-processing feedback loops. They propose products, introduce them into the marketplace, learn from the performance of the products, and adjust. They do this while trying to maximize some value function, typically profit.
 
So why can’t they be completely automated? I mean that literally. Could we have software that carries out all those functions?
 
The CEO of an automatic corporation will be a devops engineer: fixing software bugs, writing “features” (i.e. new ways for the corporation to behave), watching performance dashboards (imagine all the pretty graphs!), and providing some vestige of human input to tune parameters used by the software. Eventually they can take their hands off the steering wheel, having configured everything to run on auto-pilot, and set up alerts to page their phone if something really goes wrong.

 
Why bother our netas and babus for reforms when we can directly leapfrog in to the “Automatic Corporation”?

Sources:

Mutual fund positioning: Feb 2014

We are trying to figure out if tracking mutual fund purchase and sell decisions can help us be better investors. What fund managers do, vs. what they say, can provide insights into their decision making process. Here are their biggest moves in February this year:

Five month aggregates

mf removed

Reversals: Reliance(+), Bank of Baroda(), Petronet(+)

mf added

Reversals: TCS(+), State Bank of India(+), Titan(+), Cadila Healthcare(+)
 
 
NOTE:

  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered

Weekly Recap: Buying More Stuff Makes You Miserable

world equity markets 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

The Nifty ended the week -0.34% (-1.21% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.15%
CAC(FRA) -3.44%
UKX(GBR) -2.75%
NKY(JPN) -6.20%
SPX(USA) -1.84%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.11%
INMEX(MEX) -2.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.01%
XU030(TUR) +0.47%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.52%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.60%
NIFTY(IND) -0.34%
INDEXCF(RUS) -7.61%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.35%

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY heatmap 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Index Performance

index performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Top winners and losers

CUMMINSIND +6.26%
BPCL +6.41%
IDFC +8.66%
INFY -9.25%
SAIL -9.13%
SSLT -7.94%
Infosys got whacked on muted growth outlook and Sesa on falling commodity prices thanks to a slowing China. Cummins: a well managed cap stock with a strong balance sheet that is transitioning from a value stock to a momentum stock.

ETFs

INFRABEES +10.26%
PSUBNKBEES +2.75%
BANKBEES +0.70%
GOLDBEES +0.54%
JUNIORBEES -1.36%
NIFTYBEES -1.50%
Infrastructure, the last two weeks has seen a reversal of fortunes. Will it last?

Advancers and Decliners

ad line 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Investment Theme Performance

The tech-heavy momentum strategies under performed. Mid-tier IT stocks were the worst.

Sector Performance

sector performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Thought for the weekend

Instead of making us happier, getting more stuff drags us down. In a new paper published in the journal Motivation and Emotion, Knox College psychology professor Tim Kasser shows, through a series of experiments spanning from six months to 12 years, that when people become more materialistic, their emotional well-being takes a dive.

The connection between our stuff and our self-esteem is a two-way street: If we become less materialistic, our well-being will improve. If our well-being improves, we tend to be less materialistic.

Source: Here’s Proof Buying More Stuff Actually Makes You Miserable