Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Bubbles are a Good Thing

world markets 2014-03-21.2014-03-28

The Nifty ended the week a whopping +3.12% (+4.75% in USD terms.)

Here’s how the rest of the world markets faired:

Major
DAX(DEU) +2.61%
CAC(FRA) +1.75%
UKX(GBR) +0.89%
NKY(JPN) +3.32%
SPX(USA) -0.66%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.45%
INMEX(MEX) +0.71%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.43%
XU030(TUR) +7.98%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +5.14%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.29%
NIFTY(IND) +3.12%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.81%
TOP40(ZAF) +3.06%
Commodities(CME)
Gold Futures $1293.80 -3.16%
Silver Futures $19.77 -2.53%
Platinum Futures $1404.70 -2.15%
Copper Futures $3.06 +2.17%
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financial Futures $108.07 +1.08%
E-mini Natural Gas Futures $4.49 +3.99%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY heatmap 2014-03-21.2014-03-28

Index Performance

index performance 2014-03-21.2014-03-28

Top winners and losers

IDFC +15.02%
CONCOR +16.35%
PNB +16.85%
ZEEL -5.78%
DRREDDY -5.50%
GLENMARK -3.51%
Dr Reddy and Glenmark led the drop in pharma stocks, something to do with the biotech massacre in the US?

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +7.78%
BANKBEES +3.34%
NIFTYBEES +3.04%
JUNIORBEES +2.45%
GOLDBEES -2.77%
PSU banks rallied on the back of the RBI’s decision to delay adoption of Basel III norms.

Investment Theme Performance

High-beta stocks flew on increased risk-taking. A Modi win better workout…

Sector Performance

sector performance 2014-03-21.2014-03-28

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-03-21.2014-03-28

Thought for the Weekend

Robert Shiller on bubbles:

First of all, it’s a free world and people can do what they want. I’m not proposing we put the straightjacket on these things. The other thing is that human nature needs stimulation and people have to have some sense of opportunity and excitement. I think profits are an important motivator. In the long run, it’s hard to say that bubbles are really bad.

Source: Robert Shiller’s Nobel Knowledge

Proximity Bias

Where an idea comes from seems to influence whether or not people think something’s a good idea. The further away that an idea comes from, the better people think that it is. Our brains are wired to assume that ideas that come from nearby are more concrete so they’re not considered as creative as the more abstract concepts that come from further away.

We are also eager to take advice from someone that sounds intelligent on TV or in an article, without vetting their predictions or doing our own research before making a purchase or sale.

Uncertainty makes people anxious and uncomfortable so we are willing to listen to those that claim they can predict the future to alleviate that tension. No one knows for sure what’s going to happen tomorrow, but it makes us feel better to believe that someone can forecast the future to make us feel better.

Source: Why We Miss Creative Ideas That Are Right Under Our Noses

Many technical indicators boil down to a handful of unique variables

Facepalm

Dr. Brett Steenbarger at Traderfeed:

The bad news is that the many technical indicators out there really just boil down to a handful of unique variables. The good news is that, overall, these unique variables do possess statistically significant predictive validity with respect to the prospective movement of stock index prices. The challenging news is that even this significant predictive value leaves the lion’s share of the future movement of stock index prices unexplained.

Source: The Psychology of Quantitative Analysis