Author: shyam

Leapfrogging Indian Labor Laws

A lot of ink gets spilt on the intractable nature of Indian labor laws. Indian labor laws are considered by many as a retarding factor of growth. Inflexible labor market regulations are believed to be hindering large-scale investments, technology absorption, productivity enhancement and high employment growth in Indian manufacturing. Inflexible labour market could also be one of the reasons for the share of manufacturing in Gross Domestic Capital Formation hovering around 30% since 1970s, and growth in share of services sector in GDCF from 39% in 1970 to 51% in 2010.

hiring and firing

However, what if, we have reached a point where it doesn’t matter anymore?

robots per 10000 employees in manufacturing

Indian labor laws exist to protect current employees. But what if entire new production lines are setup without having to employ labor at all?

What if, instead of this:

people

We start with this:

robots

Industrial robot manufacturers are reporting between 18% and 25% growth in orders and revenue year on year.

Even newspaper articles are being written by algos. An algorithm called Quakebot is programmed to extract relevant data from USGS earthquake reports and plug it into a pre-written template. The story goes into the LAT’s content management system, where it awaits review and publication by a human editor. Narrative Science, a company that trains computers to write news stories, predicts that in the next 15 years, 90% of news would be written by computers.

Connecting the dots, we can imagine a future where our existing idea of a “corporation” might appear quaint.

Corporations can be thought of as information-processing feedback loops. They propose products, introduce them into the marketplace, learn from the performance of the products, and adjust. They do this while trying to maximize some value function, typically profit.
 
So why can’t they be completely automated? I mean that literally. Could we have software that carries out all those functions?
 
The CEO of an automatic corporation will be a devops engineer: fixing software bugs, writing “features” (i.e. new ways for the corporation to behave), watching performance dashboards (imagine all the pretty graphs!), and providing some vestige of human input to tune parameters used by the software. Eventually they can take their hands off the steering wheel, having configured everything to run on auto-pilot, and set up alerts to page their phone if something really goes wrong.

 
Why bother our netas and babus for reforms when we can directly leapfrog in to the “Automatic Corporation”?

Sources:

Mutual fund positioning: Feb 2014

We are trying to figure out if tracking mutual fund purchase and sell decisions can help us be better investors. What fund managers do, vs. what they say, can provide insights into their decision making process. Here are their biggest moves in February this year:

Five month aggregates

mf removed

Reversals: Reliance(+), Bank of Baroda(), Petronet(+)

mf added

Reversals: TCS(+), State Bank of India(+), Titan(+), Cadila Healthcare(+)
 
 
NOTE:

  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered

Weekly Recap: Buying More Stuff Makes You Miserable

world equity markets 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

The Nifty ended the week -0.34% (-1.21% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.15%
CAC(FRA) -3.44%
UKX(GBR) -2.75%
NKY(JPN) -6.20%
SPX(USA) -1.84%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.11%
INMEX(MEX) -2.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.01%
XU030(TUR) +0.47%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.52%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.60%
NIFTY(IND) -0.34%
INDEXCF(RUS) -7.61%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.35%

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY heatmap 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Index Performance

index performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Top winners and losers

CUMMINSIND +6.26%
BPCL +6.41%
IDFC +8.66%
INFY -9.25%
SAIL -9.13%
SSLT -7.94%
Infosys got whacked on muted growth outlook and Sesa on falling commodity prices thanks to a slowing China. Cummins: a well managed cap stock with a strong balance sheet that is transitioning from a value stock to a momentum stock.

ETFs

INFRABEES +10.26%
PSUBNKBEES +2.75%
BANKBEES +0.70%
GOLDBEES +0.54%
JUNIORBEES -1.36%
NIFTYBEES -1.50%
Infrastructure, the last two weeks has seen a reversal of fortunes. Will it last?

Advancers and Decliners

ad line 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Investment Theme Performance

The tech-heavy momentum strategies under performed. Mid-tier IT stocks were the worst.

Sector Performance

sector performance 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Yield Curve

yield Curve 2014-03-07.2014-03-14

Thought for the weekend

Instead of making us happier, getting more stuff drags us down. In a new paper published in the journal Motivation and Emotion, Knox College psychology professor Tim Kasser shows, through a series of experiments spanning from six months to 12 years, that when people become more materialistic, their emotional well-being takes a dive.

The connection between our stuff and our self-esteem is a two-way street: If we become less materialistic, our well-being will improve. If our well-being improves, we tend to be less materialistic.

Source: Here’s Proof Buying More Stuff Actually Makes You Miserable

Takeaways: Day Trading in Taiwan

day-trader-geek

Found a paper that came out in May 2011 that studied the skill distribution of day traders in Taiwan an interesting read. Here are some excerpts.

Study period: from 1992 to 2006

Interest area: First, the authors are interested in analyzing the cross-section of speculator skill, and day traders, given their short holding period, are almost certainly speculators. Second, the signal-to-noise ratio regarding investor skill arguably is greater for day traders than for investors with longer holding periods. Finally, day traders incur substantial trading costs and receive quick feedback about their trading ability.

Shyam here: I am not sure about the second part. You cannot compare skill levels based on returns across different holding periods – apples to oranges.

In the average year, about 360,000 Taiwanese individuals engage in day trading and about 15% of these day traders earn abnormal returns net of fees. Of course, some outperformance would be expected by sheer luck. However, about 1,000 day traders (less than 1% of the total population of day traders) are able to predictably outperform.

Conclusion: The most profitable day traders are not liquidity providers, as they tend to place aggressive orders in
anticipation of price moves. The most successful are heavy day traders with a history of profits who are willing to short and who concentrate in a few stocks.

Source: The Cross-Section of Speculator Skill Evidence from Day Trading (pdf)