Author: shyam

What can Modi do?

The following are excerpts from a recent JP Morgan special report titled “India: elections, markets & the tyranny of economic reality.”

The equity market exuberance, however, appears based on opinion polls increasingly pointing to a stable government post election, and the presumption of a dramatic economic pivot post election that jump starts a new capex cycle.

EM India Flow

The broad hope is that a positive cycle can be unleashed if projects get unclogged, increasing cash flow for infra companies (which account for 30% of stressed loans), enabling loan repayments, and healing bank balance sheets, which can allow a fresh lending cycle to start.

India stalled projects

But the problem is that the vast majority of projects are currently stuck because of issues that are under the purview of state governments, over which the central government has little jurisdiction.

India stalled projects reasons

And even if these problems were magically resolved, where is the money going to come from? Among the BSE-200 non-financials, 17% have operating incomes (before depreciation, interest and taxes) that are less than the perilous threshold of 1.5 times their debt service obligations. So a significant deleveraging would need to be undertaken before these infrastructure companies have the balance sheet strength to finance another investment cycle. This is a multi-quarter process.

India debt to equity

Banks are not in a position to lend. Public sector banks – which account for 70% of banking sector assets – are saddled with the overwhelming majority of impaired loans, and would need a significant quantum of capital injection by the government – far in excess of what has been budgeted – to finance any large pick-up in credit growth.

India bad loans

Given the economic reality on the ground, the translation from political stability to economic performance is likely to be far more lagged, incomplete and uncertain than the current market euphoria may be betraying.

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Implied Volatility(IV)

Implied volatility(IV) is a measure of the market’s expectations for the underlying’s performance during the life span of the option.

The IV of an option is actually backed out of the price of the option. All the inputs of an options pricing model are known (time to expiration, strike, price, interest rates) except for the volatility that the option is pricing in. So that value can be backed out and allows you to understand the relative value of the option’s price.

This Khan Academy video does a good job of explaining what IV is:


 

  • When IV is high, options will be more expensive to purchase. And low IV will translate to more affordable option prices.
  • Heightened implied volatility correlates with bearish sentiment, while low IV suggests a bullish mood.
  • If you purchase an option with high IV, you need a much bigger move out of the underlying stock to profit from the trade.
  • IV will rise ahead of scheduled events, such as earnings reports and new product launches. Once the anticipated event occurs, IV will immediately drop.

IV in Action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

IV of calls:
March 2014 NIFTY IV (CE)
IV of puts:
March 2014 NIFTY IV (PE)
 

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Vega(κ)

Vega(κ) is the sensitivity of an option’s value to underlying volatility(σ). σ is one of the main drivers of change in an option’s value and so κ allows you to quantify this particular risk.

For example, a κ of 1178.50 when the model price is Rs.188.92 and σ is 0.185 implies that if σ rises by 1% to 0.195, then the price will increase to Rs.188.92 + 1178.50/100 = Rs.200.705

  • κ increases as volatility increases
  • κ for a long term option is higher than the κ for a shorter term option with the same strike
  • an at-the-money option will have a greater κ than either an in-the-money option or an out-of-the-money option
  • κ is the same value for calls and puts

Vega in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

κ:

March 2014 NIFTY Vega

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Gamma(γ)

The option’s gamma(γ) is a measure of the rate of change of its delta(δ). δ is dynamic: it changes not only as the underlying stock moves, but as expiration approaches. γ is the Greek that determines the amount of that movement.

  • γ is the amount a theoretical δ will change for a corresponding one-point change in the price of the underlying.
  • γ will be a number anywhere from 0 to 1.00 and is positive when buying options and negative when selling them.
  • Deep-in-the-money or far-out-of-the-money options have lower γ than at-the-money options.
  • As implied volatility decreases, γ of at-the-money calls and puts increases.
  • When implied volatility goes higher, the γ of both in-the-money and out-of-the-money calls and puts will be decreasing.
  • As the time to expiration draws nearer, the γ of at-the-money options increases while the γ of in-the-money and out-of-the-money options decreases.

Gamma in Action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

γ:

March 2014 NIFTY Gamma

Note that the γ value is the same for calls as for puts. Some intuitions:

  1. The δ tells us how many underlying contracts we are long/short.
  2. The γ tells us how fast our “effective” underlying position will change.
  3. So γ shows how volatile an option is relative to movements in the underlying asset.
  4. γ will let you know how large your δ (position risk) changes.

Source:
Option Gamma
Gamma
 

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Delta(δ)

Delta(δ) is a theoretical estimate of how much an option’s premium may change given a 1-point move in the underlying. For an option with a δ of .50, an investor can expect about a 50p move in that option’s premium given a Rs.1 move, up or down, in the underlying.

  • For purchased options owned by an investor, δ is between 0 and 1.00 for calls and 0 and -1.00 for puts.
  • As a call option goes deeper-in-the-money, δ approaches 1.00 on the increased likelihood the option will be in-the-money at expiration.
  • With an increase in implied volatility, δ gravitates toward .50 as more and more strikes are now considered possibilities for winding up in-the-money because of the perceived potential for movement in the underlying.
  • Low implied volatility stocks will tend to have higher δ for the in-the-money options and lower δ for out-of-the-money options.
  • At expiration an option either has a δ of either 0 or 1.00 with no time premium remaining.
  • As expiration nears, in-the-money call δs increase toward 1.00, at-the-money call δs remain around .50 and out-of-the-money call δs fall toward 0 provided other inputs remain constant.

Delta in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

δ of calls:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (CE)

δ of puts:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (PE)
 

Note how δs rip towards 0 or 1 as expiry approaches? Here’s an important intuition: in-the-money options will move more than out-of-the-money options, and short-term options will react more than longer-term options to the same price change in the stock.

Source: Understanding Delta