Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: October

world.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -6.32%
CAC(FRA) -6.68%
NKY(JPN) -4.86%
SPX(USA) -2.16%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -3.46%
INMEX(MEX) -2.65%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.86%
XU030(TUR) -0.82%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.47%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.45%
NIFTY(IND) -1.08%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.55%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.05%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.18%
Ethanol +4.04%
Heating Oil -3.48%
Natural Gas -4.43%
RBOB Gasoline -7.66%
WTI Crude Oil -5.83%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.69%
Palladium +0.44%
Platinum -1.99%
Silver 5000oz +0.58%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.13% USDJPY:-1.46%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.72%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.18%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.20%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.06%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.14%
USDINR(IND) -0.45%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.70%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.23%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.77%
Cocoa +1.08%
Coffee (Arabica) +10.84%
Coffee (Robusta) +5.01%
Corn +4.28%
Cotton +3.95%
Feeder Cattle +0.92%
Lean Hogs +1.99%
Lumber +0.38%
Orange Juice -3.85%
Soybean Meal +10.54%
Soybeans +0.60%
Sugar #11 +3.25%
Wheat +4.13%
White Sugar +1.08%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -14.82%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.60%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +22.00%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +18.07%
Markit iTraxx Australia +11.93%
Markit iTraxx Europe +4.57%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +93.24%
Markit iTraxx Japan +7.25%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.82%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.17%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.90%
Markets seesawed between “good news is bad news” (US recovery means end of ZIRP) and “bad news is bad news” (slowing global growth) resulting in some serious whiplash. Credit blew out, European markets tanked and oil got crushed…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Index Returns

index performance.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -6.80% 69/66
2 -2.31% 63/70
3 -0.18% 66/69
4 -2.54% 65/70
5 +0.24% 62/72
6 -1.06% 60/75
7 +0.00% 72/63
8 -0.35% 74/61
9 -0.53% 66/69
10 (mega) -1.15% 66/69
Small-caps bore the brunt of the market correction.

Top winners and losers

RCOM +5.06%
UNIONBANK +5.37%
BHEL +11.11%
NMDC -8.95%
JINDALSTEL -8.72%
IDEA -8.45%
JSPL continued to get pummeled, it is now -38.74% for the year.

ETFs

GOLDBEES +0.67%
BANKBEES +0.45%
INFRABEES +0.45%
CPSEETF -0.41%
NIFTYBEES -1.03%
PSUBNKBEES -1.09%
JUNIORBEES -3.01%
Negative for the most part…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-10-1.2014-10-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.03 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.04 +0.36%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.06 +0.66%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.05 -0.04%
The long end was affected by RBI’s OMO – apparently they were mopping up excess liquidity…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.OCT.2014-10-01.2014-10-10

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.OCT.2014-10-01.2014-10-10

Theme Performance

Momentum carried through this week, but barely. Most themes ended in the red.

Thought for the weekend

twain october

Google Asset Management

Facebook, with all the data they are collecting about you, your interests, your social “klout”, etc. could soon make the role of your bank manager redundant. And they have been trying to wedge into the financial services for a while now. Back in April, we surfaced a story about how Facebook is entering the remittances market and is planning to allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others. “Facebook wants to become a utility in the developing world, and remittances are a gateway drug to financial inclusion.”

Where Facebook goes, can Google be far behind?

Google has commissioned research on how it could enter the asset management industry, adding weight to widespread fears in the fund sector that the world’s biggest internet companies could destroy the livelihoods of established fund houses.

However, Silicon Valley tech firms with their “move fast and break things” motto may be ill suited to meet the fiduciary standards set by regulators to protect investors. Apple sending out a flawed update to new iPhones is a minor irritation, screwing up somebody’s retirement account is a big deal.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Source: Google study heightens fund industry fears

Broken Funds

Cycles usually turn and the most hated sectors end up bouncing back and out-performing the broader markets. Does the same apply to actively managed mutual funds? Should you bet on the asset manager’s luck turning and getting off to the races? Here are some “broken” funds that maybe of interest.

Escorts Infrastructure Fund

Since 2007-09-21, Escorts Infrastructure Fund has returned a cumulative -38.19% vs. CNX 500’s +58.39%. This fund should get a bad-timing award, having launched in 26-Jul-2007, if MorningStar is to be believed (factsheet.) If you are bullish on Indian infrastructure, you may be better off buying the INFRABEES ETF. [stockquote]INFRABEES[/stockquote]

JM Equity Fund

I wonder what the holdings of this fund were in 2008? It lost -71.81% (CNX 500: -64.26%) in value during the crash and is yet to recover. Seeing how well it tracked the broader market, it might make sense to just hold a CNX 500 index fund instead of paying this manager to actively run your investment to the ground.

JM Basic Fund

Since 2006-04-03, JM Basic Fund has returned a cumulative 4.72% vs. CNX 500’s cumulative return of 117.04%.

jm basic fund

Looks like the fund blew up pretty much every year of its existence.

HSBC Progressive Themes Fund

Something happened in Oct-2010 that permanently changed the course of this fund.

Since 2006-04-03, HSBC Progressive Themes Fund has returned a cumulative 36.18% vs. CNX 500’s cumulative return of 117.04%. And since 2013-01-01, the number is 25.73% vs. 31.98%.

Progressively losing client’s money.

Taurus Bonanza Fund

This fund was a bonanza for the asset manager who continues to charge 2.83% on Rs. 250.8M of assets (MorningStar.) Since 2006-04-03, Taurus Bonanza Fund has returned a cumulative 51.66% vs. CNX 500’s cumulative return of 117.04%.

It is yet to recover from the 2008 crash and you are probably better off buying a CNX 100 or CNX 500 index fund instead of chasing this bonanza.

Conclusion

It is said that there is a lot you can learn from studying failure. By looking at the track records of these broken funds, I think the key take-away here is that buy-and-hold only works if you (a) understand what it is that you are holding, and (b) stick to a strict re-balance frequency. Moreover, betting on reversion to mean might only work if you are betting that an out-performing manager will fall back to mediocrity. The other direction is a tough ask.

You can run the comparison tool here: FundCompare
 
 
 

Please get in touch with Shyam for advice on investing in mutual funds.
You can either WhatsApp him or call him at 080-2665-0232.
He is an AMFI registered IFA who can advice you on Mirae, HDFC, ICICI Pru, UTI and Birla Sun Life funds.

Risk, Volatility and Returns

Many investors believe that more risk implies more returns. However, that is an over-simplification: more risk implies a higher probability of more returns (and a higher probability of loss, as well.) Higher risk also implies higher volatility. This graphic is probably the best illustration of the relationship between risk, volatility and returns.

risk-return

As mutual fund investors, you may have come across the ICICI Prudential “Very Aggressive” and the “Very Cautious” funds. Lets compare their relative performance across different time horizons to further understand the relationship between risk, volatility and returns.

Since March 2008

Since 2008-03-03, ICICI Prudential Very Aggressive fund has returned a cumulative 56.24% vs. ICICI Prudential Very Cautious fund’s cumulative return of 53.30%. The 3% out-performance came with significant stomach-ulcer causing volatility.

icici 2008

It would require someone to have some serious testicular fortitude to hang-on to their investments after a 45% drawdown. It took the “Very Aggressive” fund more than a year to claw itself out of the hole. And many investors would have abandoned the fund during that period.

Here’s wealth chart:

Since March 2009

Boom!

Since 2009-03-02, “Very Aggressive” returned a cumulative 169.40% vs. the “Very Cautious” cumulative return of 41.37%. Max Drawdown: -13.81% vs. -4.70%.

Peace of mind came with a very high performance penalty.

Since March 2010

Since 2010-03-02, “Very Aggressive”: 50.02%, “Very Cautious”: 35.48%.

And This Year

Since 2010-03-02, “Very Aggressive”: 17.58%, “Very Cautious”: 7.54%.

Conclusion

The real risk, if you are investing for retirement, is the inability to maintain a certain lifestyle post-retirement due to inadequate savings. Ideally, your investments should be risk-seeking when you are young and risk-avoiding as you near retirement. You can use a set of funds to reflect this attitude towards risk. And there is almost never a “one-size-fits-all-5-star-gold-plated” fund that you can remain invested forever.

You can run our very own comparison tool: FundCompare to see how different funds performed over different time frames, indices and other funds.
 
 
 
 

Please get in touch with Shyam for advice on investing in mutual funds.
You can either WhatsApp him or call him at 080-2665-0232.
He is an AMFI registered IFA who can advice you on Mirae, HDFC, ICICI Pru, UTI and Birla Sun Life funds.

Monthly Recap: The Dornbusch Rule

world.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.85%
CAC(FRA) -0.02%
UKX(GBR) -3.65%
NKY(JPN) +1.31%
SPX(USA) -2.59%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.71%
INMEX(MEX) -3.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.36%
XU030(TUR) -9.13%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -12.62%
SHCOMP(CHN) +7.65%
NIFTY(IND) -0.11%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.58%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.71%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -8.29%
Ethanol -29.94%
Heating Oil -6.66%
Natural Gas -0.50%
RBOB Gasoline -11.26%
WTI Crude Oil -4.06%
Metals
Copper -2.88%
Gold 100oz -5.36%
Palladium -12.55%
Platinum -9.38%
Silver 5000oz -11.79%

Currencies

USDEUR:+4.31% USDJPY:+4.88%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +3.95%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.62%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.68%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.38%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +10.67%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) +1.81%
USDRUB(RUS) +7.69%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.42%
Agricultural
Cattle +5.29%
Cocoa -2.17%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.51%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.79%
Corn -11.13%
Cotton -5.74%
Feeder Cattle +10.07%
Lean Hogs +11.64%
Lumber -1.12%
Orange Juice -4.42%
Soybean Meal -29.19%
Soybeans -14.56%
Sugar #11 +2.75%
Wheat -13.09%
White Sugar -1.74%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY -2.12%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.12%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +19.25%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.49%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.66%
Markit iTraxx Europe +5.79%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +28.88%
Markit iTraxx Japan -3.93%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.01%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.07%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +11.80%
A US interest rates normalize, money that was sloshing about in frontier/emerging markets tends to flow back home. The US Dollar rallies, EM equities and credit wobble and commodities crash. Here’s to hoping that ZIRP stays on for a few more years and the ECB embarks on QE to pick up where the Fed left-off.

Index Performance

index performance.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +4.17% 79/58
2 +11.38% 77/59
3 +9.65% 78/59
4 +6.86% 78/59
5 +7.74% 78/58
6 +4.69% 78/60
7 +6.04% 74/63
8 +2.70% 72/65
9 +2.14% 66/71
10 (mega) +0.75% 66/72
In spite of market jitters towards the end of September, small and mid-caps managed to come out way ahead of the large caps…

Top Winners and Losers

ZEEL +14.78%
DIVISLAB +15.06%
CIPLA +21.90%
JINDALSTEL -25.84%
BHEL -16.79%
BANKINDIA -16.38%
So much for the recovery trade. The market re-discovered FMCG, Pharma and IT…

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +0.66%
NIFTYBEES +0.13%
INFRABEES -1.59%
PSUBNKBEES -1.61%
BANKBEES -2.27%
CPSEETF -2.70%
GOLDBEES -3.93%
Gold turning out to be terrible investment…

Yield Curve

The whole curve shifted down… lower inflation and rate-cut expectations can do that. But the curve might get steeper, given Rajan’s 6% inflation target for 2016.

yield Curve.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.76%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.09 +0.68%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.27 -0.16%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 +0.17%
No big moves…

Interbank Lending

mibor.30days.2014-9-30

Theme Performance

Has been a good month for most investment strategies. However, high beta continued to get pummeled.

Thought to sum up the month

The Dornbusch Rule:

The Dornbusch rule is that your calculations of fundamentals may be accurate, and you may have high confidence in them, but nothing requires that the market has to have high confidence in your beliefs about fundamentals. Thus markets can remain far away from equilibrium for far longer than you, who understand and are dazzled by your analytical insights, think possible.

As the spouse of one senior hedge-fund official put it: your theory of the world is that the market is inefficient when you put a trade on but will rapidly become efficient thereafter — where “rapidly” means “before your clients lose their patience with you”.

Source: PIMCO: How to Lose (Lots of) Money and Still Influence People