Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Surge!

world.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.19%
CAC(FRA) -1.72%
UKX(GBR) -0.71%
NKY(JPN) -1.45%
SPX(USA) -0.31%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.50%
INMEX(MEX) -0.15%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -13.03%
XU030(TUR) +2.55%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.73%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.57%
NIFTY(IND) -1.32%
INDEXCF(RUS) +8.50%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.61%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -8.70%
Brent Crude Oil -11.76%
Heating Oil -6.41%
Natural Gas -3.70%
RBOB Gasoline -8.49%
WTI Crude Oil -9.43%
Metals
Platinum +2.32%
Gold 100oz +2.78%
Silver 5000oz +5.81%
Copper -1.76%
Palladium +1.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.44% USDJPY:-1.50%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.81%
USDMXN(MEX) -1.40%
USDNGN(NGA) -2.29%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.00%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.19%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.02%
USDINR(IND) -1.53%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.93%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.79%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.98%
Corn +1.98%
Orange Juice -2.50%
Soybean Meal +2.07%
Soybeans +4.65%
Cotton +1.86%
Lean Hogs -3.52%
Sugar #11 +4.77%
Feeder Cattle -1.12%
Lumber -2.61%
Wheat -1.99%
Cocoa +2.41%
Coffee (Arabica) +13.60%
Coffee (Robusta) +7.25%
White Sugar +3.45%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.72%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.96%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.91%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +12.78%
Markit iTraxx Australia +7.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.52%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +8.23%
Markit iTraxx Japan +5.72%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.50%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.54%
Precious metals found a bid, the dollar rally took a pause for the cause, energy continued to tumble, credit widened and Nigeria got ground to dust.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +2.17% 66/70
2 +1.39% 70/66
3 +0.62% 73/63
4 +3.15% 74/63
5 +0.78% 74/62
6 -0.28% 64/72
7 +0.29% 68/69
8 +0.01% 66/70
9 -0.54% 59/77
10 (mega) -0.44% 66/71
Mid-caps were a sight for sore eyes…

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +7.84%
UBL +8.18%
HINDUNILVR +14.37%
PFC -8.51%
NMDC -7.89%
IDEA -7.69%
Who would’ve thunk that Unilever can post double digit returns in a week?

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +0.21%
INFRABEES -1.09%
NIFTYBEES -1.30%
CPSEETF -1.47%
BANKBEES -2.62%
JUNIORBEES -2.87%
PSUBNKBEES -4.84%
After “gyan sangam” comes the hangover. Decades of mismanagement, vested interests and perverse incentives cannot be wished away…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.27 +0.23%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.63 +0.31%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.03 +0.46%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.03 -0.05%
Rate cuts factored in and some more…

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

If your hairdresser or auto mechanic is busy, you get penciled in for next week. She doesn’t tell you she’ll fit you in tomorrow at double her usual rate.

Source: Surge!

Mid N Small vs. Value Discovery

Sometimes, when you are comparing funds from different AMCs, you stumble across a pair of them that are so similar that it becomes a tough call choosing between them. For example, Religare Invesco MID N SMALL CAP Fund and ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund are right on top of each other. Try to spot the difference here (Jan-2012 through Jan-2015):

religare.icici

Between 2012-01-02 and 2015-01-07, Religare Invesco MID N SMALL CAP Fund has returned a cumulative 172.88% with an IRR of 39.49% vs. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund’s cumulative return of 170.32% and an IRR of 39.05%.

Their drawdowns are similar as well. And since the NAV is quoted after all expenses, Religare’s expense ratio of 2.97% vs. ICICI’s 2.34% is factored into the returns.

religare.icici.metrics

In terms of metrics, Religare is marginally better than ICICI. However, there is nothing there to swing the decision one way or the other.

Run the FundCompare tool and have a look for yourself.

Nifty Correlations

It is useful to visualize the correlations of returns between individual stocks in an index. If correlations are high, betting on the index as a whole could be more profitable compared to picking single stocks. Low correlations, on the other hand, is a stock-picker’s dream. Here’s how the NIFTY correlations stack up.

One year daily returns

cnx nifty correlations.2014-1-1

One month daily returns

cnx nifty correlations.2014-12-1

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

We plan to update these on a weekly basis.

Monthly Recap: Desires > Aspirations

world.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.17%
CAC(FRA) -3.14%
UKX(GBR) -2.60%
NKY(JPN) -0.05%
SPX(USA) -0.45%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.80%
INMEX(MEX) -5.54%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.33%
XU030(TUR) -0.93%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -11.79%
SHCOMP(CHN) +20.57%
NIFTY(IND) -2.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -8.94%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.15%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -21.95%
Brent Crude Oil -20.57%
WTI Crude Oil -21.45%
Heating Oil -19.32%
Natural Gas -27.91%
RBOB Gasoline -24.60%
Metals
Copper -1.05%
Platinum +0.32%
Gold 100oz +1.75%
Palladium -1.43%
Silver 5000oz +1.95%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.62% USDJPY:+1.55%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.78%
USDMXN(MEX) +6.70%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.44%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.62%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.93%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.02%
USDINR(IND) +2.04%
USDRUB(RUS) +18.77%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.51%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -12.45%
Lumber +0.82%
Soybeans -1.26%
Sugar #11 -8.60%
Wheat +0.26%
White Sugar -6.78%
Cattle -1.69%
Corn +4.84%
Orange Juice -3.12%
Feeder Cattle -3.24%
Soybean Meal -8.73%
Cocoa +3.43%
Coffee (Arabica) -14.03%
Cotton -3.09%
Lean Hogs -9.28%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.46%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.07%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.22%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.76%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.01%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +10.27%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.28%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.51%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.49%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +5.27%
The dollar rallied, oil collapsed, credit spreads widened and the sag in coffee kept punters awake.
Russia and Brazil were the worst performing markets. From Brics to Rics to Ics…

Index Returns

index performance.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (small) -9.85% 66/73
2 -5.19% 58/82
3 -4.45% 65/75
4 -2.74% 66/73
5 -3.71% 61/79
6 -3.54% 72/68
7 -1.31% 65/75
8 -1.14% 74/66
9 +0.52% 74/66
10 (mega) -2.85% 73/67
December was brutal, especially for small and mid caps…

Top Winners and Losers

UNIONBANK +11.22%
INFRATEL +12.24%
BAJAJFINSV +13.65%
RCOM -22.24%
TATASTEEL -15.62%
BPCL -13.43%
RCOM vs. Infratel, enuf said.

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +1.51%
GOLDBEES +0.87%
JUNIORBEES +0.24%
PSUBNKBEES +0.08%
CPSEETF -2.57%
NIFTYBEES -3.51%
INFRABEES -7.45%
Banks survived…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Interbank Lending

mibor.30days.2014-12-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.16 +0.77%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.23 +1.09%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.22 +1.65%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.32 +2.72%
#winning

Investment Theme Performance

Thought to sum up the month

When our aspirations conflict with our desires, our desires often win out. How do we stick to our long-term goals?

Make them easy and automatic, make them a matter of habit, and make them fun.

Source: How to Keep Your New Year’s Resolutions

Weekly Recap: The Year Ahead

world.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.59%
CAC(FRA) -1.01%
UKX(GBR) -0.94%
NKY(JPN) -2.07%
SPX(USA) -1.46%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.47%
INMEX(MEX) -1.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.66%
XU030(TUR) +0.66%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.26%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.44%
NIFTY(IND) +2.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.49%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.11%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -6.15%
Natural Gas -2.38%
Ethanol -1.74%
Brent Crude Oil -5.10%
RBOB Gasoline -4.72%
WTI Crude Oil -4.23%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.68%
Platinum -0.99%
Copper +0.35%
Palladium -2.75%
Silver 5000oz -2.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.49% USDJPY:+0.16%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.83%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.56%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.13%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) -0.43%
USDRUB(RUS) +9.81%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.74%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -1.56%
Lumber -1.63%
White Sugar -3.21%
Corn -4.64%
Feeder Cattle +4.15%
Soybean Meal -6.21%
Cocoa -0.05%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.97%
Cotton -3.45%
Lean Hogs -0.12%
Wheat -4.92%
Cattle +0.91%
Orange Juice +2.30%
Soybeans -4.37%
Sugar #11 -3.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.55%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.58%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.90%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.11%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.17%
Markit iTraxx Europe +4.55%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +23.20%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.47%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.83%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.61%
India was one of the few markets that were green in the first week of 2015. Credit spreads got wider, NKY down more than 2% and Europe was forced to eat Greek yogurt.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.44% 68/62
2 +4.13% 69/61
3 +3.59% 69/59
4 +5.05% 76/54
5 +4.83% 79/50
6 +4.44% 77/53
7 +4.12% 77/53
8 +4.33% 74/55
9 +3.88% 75/55
10 (mega) +1.77% 66/64
No child left behind?

Top Winners and Losers

BHEL +9.44%
ADANIPORTS +10.43%
LICHSGFIN +11.73%
BAJAJFINSV -2.59%
M&M -2.44%
GLENMARK -1.32%
Presented without comment.

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +3.69%
INFRABEES +2.60%
BANKBEES +2.52%
NIFTYBEES +2.30%
PSUBNKBEES +2.25%
CPSEETF +1.78%
GOLDBEES -0.41%
The “gyan sangam” effect was good for a couple of points on the bank ETFs…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.15 +0.11%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.04 +0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.06 +0.25%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.05 +0.38%
An inverted, flat curve with rate cuts fully baked in.

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

Will Vladimir Putin pose naked to win back Russian affections?
Will China buy Venezuela?
Will Whole Foods open stores across India?
Will Kim Jong Un release a fitness video?

An Unserious Look at the Year Ahead