Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Big Bets

world.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +5.38%
CAC(FRA) +4.80%
UKX(GBR) +0.76%
NKY(JPN) -1.94%
SPX(USA) -1.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.31%
INMEX(MEX) -2.57%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -3.68%
XU030(TUR) +0.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.54%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.77%
NIFTY(IND) +2.77%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.02%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.25%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -1.82%
Brent Crude Oil +0.95%
WTI Crude Oil +0.96%
Natural Gas +4.83%
RBOB Gasoline +3.74%
Ethanol -8.81%
Metals
Gold 100oz +4.96%
Palladium -5.39%
Platinum +3.02%
Silver 5000oz +8.54%
Copper -4.66%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.42% USDJPY:-0.89%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.20%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.90%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.42%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.72%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.01%
USDINR(IND) -0.73%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.82%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.58%
Agricultural
Corn -3.20%
Feeder Cattle -3.05%
Lean Hogs -4.84%
Soybean Meal -9.92%
Wheat -6.01%
Cattle -3.58%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.52%
Cotton -2.49%
Lumber -3.34%
Sugar #11 +2.41%
Cocoa -0.25%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.38%
Orange Juice +5.89%
Soybeans -5.62%
White Sugar +1.48%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.63%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.40%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.89%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +3.23%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.73%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +7.83%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.75%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.74%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.43%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.56%
Rajan surprised us with a rate cut. But the Swiss central bank surprised a whole bunch of FX brokers and punters by abandoning their peg against the Euro. Most developed country 10-year yields are either at zero or negative. Investors are paying the Swiss for the privilege of lending them money!

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Index Returns

index performance.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +0.74% 70/65
2 -0.29% 74/61
3 +1.86% 73/62
4 +1.33% 68/67
5 +0.33% 68/67
6 +1.61% 73/62
7 +1.28% 66/69
8 +1.72% 70/65
9 +2.28% 71/64
10 (mega) +2.90% 68/67
Large caps outperformed mid and small caps.

Top Winners and Losers

BOSCHLTD +10.24%
UPL +11.37%
ULTRACEMCO +12.48%
HINDALCO -10.61%
PETRONET -7.62%
SSLT -7.00%
Miners got pummeled. The end of a super-cycle brings many deaths…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +3.43%
JUNIORBEES +3.38%
BANKBEES +3.28%
GOLDBEES +3.09%
NIFTYBEES +2.99%
CPSEETF -0.04%
INFRABEES -0.60%
Go Rate-Cut Rajan!

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-1-9.2015-1-16

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.10 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.48 +0.49%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.32 +1.36%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.28 +2.57%
The long-end continues to rock investor returns…

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

Concentration produces wealth. Diversification protects it.
Concentration produces innovation. Diversification produces mediocrity.
Make big bets, do fewer things, concentrate your resources.
Don’t hedge, commit.

Source: Making Big Bets

Correlation between Theme components

If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you;
If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.
-Howard Marks

Investors can now look at the correlation (over one-year and one-month horizons) between stocks that make up an investment ‘Theme’ strategy. For example, here’s how the one-year correlation of the Financial Strength Value Theme looks like:

one year correlation

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Happy Sankranti and Pongal!

Nifty Cash-Futures Basis

Fair value

Equity futures have a ‘fair-value’:

Futures Price = Cash Price [1+r (x/360)] – Dividends;
where x = days to expiration of the futures contract

Fair value is the theoretical assumption of where a futures contract should be priced given such things as the current index level, index dividends, days to expiration and interest rates. The actual futures price will not necessarily trade at the theoretical price, as short-term supply and demand will cause price to fluctuate around fair value. Price discrepancies above or below fair value should cause arbitrageurs to return the market closer to its fair value. – CME

Cash-futures Basis

You can see this in action when you plot the NIFTY index value with its futures:

nifty-cash-futures-basis

Initially, x/360 is large, so futures’ trade rich to cash. As expiry approaches, futures and cash prices converge. This is the natural order of things.

Interest Rate

You can go one step further and back out the interest rate baked into these prices:

nifty-cash-futures-interest-rate

r is usually within a tight band; roughly around where short-term rates are.

So if you ever wondered why futures are trading higher than cash, now you know!

The Golden Straitjacket

One of Thomas Friedman‘s theses states that individual countries must sacrifice some degree of economic sovereignty to global institutions, a situation he has termed the “golden straitjacket.”

From his book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree:

To fit into the Golden Straitjacket a country must either adopt, or be seen as moving toward, the following golden rules:

  1. making the private sector the primary engine of its economic growth,
  2. maintaining a low rate of inflation and price stability,
  3. shrinking the size of its state bureaucracy,
  4. maintaining as close to a balanced budget as possible, if not a surplus,
  5. eliminating and lowering tariffs on imported goods,
  6. removing restrictions on foreign investment,
  7. getting rid of quotas and domestic monopolies,
  8. increasing exports,
  9. privatizing state-owned industries and utilities,
  10. deregulating capital markets,
  11. making its currency convertible,
  12. opening its industries, stock and bond markets to direct foreign ownership and investment,
  13. deregulating its economy to promote as much domestic competition as possible,
  14. eliminating government corruption, subsidies and kickbacks as much as possible,
  15. opening its banking and telecommunications systems to private ownership and competition, and
  16. allowing its citizens to choose from an array of competing pension options and foreign-run pension and mutual funds.

When you stitch all of these pieces together you have the Golden Straitjacket.

As your country puts on the Golden Straitjacket, two things tend to happen: your economy grows and your politics shrinks. That is, on the economic front the Golden Straitjacket usually fosters more growth and higher average incomes — through more trade, foreign investment, privatization and more efficient use of resources under the pressure of global competition. But on the political front, the Golden Straitjacket narrows the political and economic policy choices of those in power to relatively tight parameters. Governments — be they led by Democrats or Republicans, Conservatives or Labourites, Gaullists or Socialists, Christian Democrats or Social Democrats — that deviate too far from the core rules will see their investors stampede away, interest rates rise and stock market valuations fall.

Will the Modi-Jaitley duo make this budget the budget of the Golden Straitjacket? Or are they going to stick to the UPA/Congress playbook of rent extraction? Fingers crossed…

Weekly Recap: Surge!

world.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.19%
CAC(FRA) -1.72%
UKX(GBR) -0.71%
NKY(JPN) -1.45%
SPX(USA) -0.31%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.50%
INMEX(MEX) -0.15%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -13.03%
XU030(TUR) +2.55%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.73%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.57%
NIFTY(IND) -1.32%
INDEXCF(RUS) +8.50%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.61%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -8.70%
Brent Crude Oil -11.76%
Heating Oil -6.41%
Natural Gas -3.70%
RBOB Gasoline -8.49%
WTI Crude Oil -9.43%
Metals
Platinum +2.32%
Gold 100oz +2.78%
Silver 5000oz +5.81%
Copper -1.76%
Palladium +1.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.44% USDJPY:-1.50%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.81%
USDMXN(MEX) -1.40%
USDNGN(NGA) -2.29%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.00%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.19%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.02%
USDINR(IND) -1.53%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.93%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.79%
Agricultural
Cattle -2.98%
Corn +1.98%
Orange Juice -2.50%
Soybean Meal +2.07%
Soybeans +4.65%
Cotton +1.86%
Lean Hogs -3.52%
Sugar #11 +4.77%
Feeder Cattle -1.12%
Lumber -2.61%
Wheat -1.99%
Cocoa +2.41%
Coffee (Arabica) +13.60%
Coffee (Robusta) +7.25%
White Sugar +3.45%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.72%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.96%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.91%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +12.78%
Markit iTraxx Australia +7.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.52%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +8.23%
Markit iTraxx Japan +5.72%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.50%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.54%
Precious metals found a bid, the dollar rally took a pause for the cause, energy continued to tumble, credit widened and Nigeria got ground to dust.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +2.17% 66/70
2 +1.39% 70/66
3 +0.62% 73/63
4 +3.15% 74/63
5 +0.78% 74/62
6 -0.28% 64/72
7 +0.29% 68/69
8 +0.01% 66/70
9 -0.54% 59/77
10 (mega) -0.44% 66/71
Mid-caps were a sight for sore eyes…

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +7.84%
UBL +8.18%
HINDUNILVR +14.37%
PFC -8.51%
NMDC -7.89%
IDEA -7.69%
Who would’ve thunk that Unilever can post double digit returns in a week?

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +0.21%
INFRABEES -1.09%
NIFTYBEES -1.30%
CPSEETF -1.47%
BANKBEES -2.62%
JUNIORBEES -2.87%
PSUBNKBEES -4.84%
After “gyan sangam” comes the hangover. Decades of mismanagement, vested interests and perverse incentives cannot be wished away…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-2.2015-01-09

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.27 +0.23%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.63 +0.31%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.03 +0.46%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.03 -0.05%
Rate cuts factored in and some more…

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

If your hairdresser or auto mechanic is busy, you get penciled in for next week. She doesn’t tell you she’ll fit you in tomorrow at double her usual rate.

Source: Surge!