Monthly Recap: Winter

world.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.09%
CAC(FRA) -1.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.22%
NKY(JPN) -9.14%
SPX(USA) +0.40%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.52%
INMEX(MEX) +2.41%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.74%
XU030(TUR) +3.56%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +6.39%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.50%
NIFTY(IND) -7.62%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.10%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.60%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +5.42%
RBOB Gasoline +20.16%
WTI Crude Oil +0.57%
Ethanol -2.68%
Heating Oil +3.61%
Natural Gas -25.63%
Metals
Copper +1.94%
Palladium +0.74%
Platinum +7.21%
Gold 100oz +11.54%
Silver 5000oz +4.93%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.50% USDJPY:-7.25%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -2.92%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.11%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.53%
USDINR(IND) +0.93%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.25%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.18%
Feeder Cattle +1.22%
Lean Hogs +6.19%
White Sugar +0.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.51%
Corn -4.78%
Lumber +5.88%
Soybeans -2.98%
Wheat -6.37%
Cocoa +10.09%
Cotton -4.85%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.26%
Orange Juice -9.50%
Soybean Meal -4.92%
Sugar #11 +9.12%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.27%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.58%
Markit CDX NA IG +7.19%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.66%
Markit iTraxx Australia +15.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe +9.54%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +45.82%
Markit iTraxx Japan +12.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.25%
Jan and Feb saw a wave of volatility hit pretty much every asset class. Diversification provided scant protection in wave-after-wave of selling across world markets and asset classes. Hopefully the great purge is done and we can look forward to better days ahead…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -22.65% 46/80
2 -19.11% 29/96
3 -20.26% 31/95
4 -17.46% 30/95
5 -16.40% 31/95
6 -15.09% 37/88
7 -12.49% 42/84
8 -12.19% 34/91
9 -11.15% 50/76
10 (mega) -6.23% 63/63
Mid- small- and micro-caps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

MARICO +6.81%
BHARTIARTL +8.83%
EICHERMOT +14.23%
BHEL -34.50%
PNB -22.23%
AUROPHARMA -21.41%
Eicher Motors emerged a big winner…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +9.31%
JUNIORBEES -6.73%
INFRABEES -6.80%
NIFTYBEES -7.07%
CPSEETF -9.72%
BANKBEES -9.83%
PSUBNKBEES -11.21%
Gold. Enuf said.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.14 +0.28%
5 10 +0.12 +0.02%
10 15 +0.15 -0.42%
15 20 +0.12 -0.41%
20 30 +0.11 -0.38%
Long bonds got shellacked…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Fund flows

FIIs sold out of both equities and bonds…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

Bonds

The spread between 10-year US treasuries and Indian gilts are at levels seen in late 2013…
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

… and all is not hunky-dory in the US bond markets either. The spread between 10yrs and 2yrs are at their lowest since 2008…
ust-yield-curve.2s10s

… and the whole yield curve shifted down in February.
ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Thoughts

As we hit ‘publish’ on this article, Indian markets are enjoying a post-budget rally. Did markets find a bottom in February? Or is more pain to come? Bring on the March madness!