Weekly Recap: The Year Ahead

world.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.59%
CAC(FRA) -1.01%
UKX(GBR) -0.94%
NKY(JPN) -2.07%
SPX(USA) -1.46%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.47%
INMEX(MEX) -1.95%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.66%
XU030(TUR) +0.66%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.26%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.44%
NIFTY(IND) +2.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.49%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.11%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -6.15%
Natural Gas -2.38%
Ethanol -1.74%
Brent Crude Oil -5.10%
RBOB Gasoline -4.72%
WTI Crude Oil -4.23%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.68%
Platinum -0.99%
Copper +0.35%
Palladium -2.75%
Silver 5000oz -2.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.49% USDJPY:+0.16%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.83%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.56%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.13%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) -0.43%
USDRUB(RUS) +9.81%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.74%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -1.56%
Lumber -1.63%
White Sugar -3.21%
Corn -4.64%
Feeder Cattle +4.15%
Soybean Meal -6.21%
Cocoa -0.05%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.97%
Cotton -3.45%
Lean Hogs -0.12%
Wheat -4.92%
Cattle +0.91%
Orange Juice +2.30%
Soybeans -4.37%
Sugar #11 -3.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.55%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.58%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.90%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.11%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.17%
Markit iTraxx Europe +4.55%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +23.20%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.47%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.83%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.61%
India was one of the few markets that were green in the first week of 2015. Credit spreads got wider, NKY down more than 2% and Europe was forced to eat Greek yogurt.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.44% 68/62
2 +4.13% 69/61
3 +3.59% 69/59
4 +5.05% 76/54
5 +4.83% 79/50
6 +4.44% 77/53
7 +4.12% 77/53
8 +4.33% 74/55
9 +3.88% 75/55
10 (mega) +1.77% 66/64
No child left behind?

Top Winners and Losers

BHEL +9.44%
ADANIPORTS +10.43%
LICHSGFIN +11.73%
BAJAJFINSV -2.59%
M&M -2.44%
GLENMARK -1.32%
Presented without comment.

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +3.69%
INFRABEES +2.60%
BANKBEES +2.52%
NIFTYBEES +2.30%
PSUBNKBEES +2.25%
CPSEETF +1.78%
GOLDBEES -0.41%
The “gyan sangam” effect was good for a couple of points on the bank ETFs…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-26.2015-1-02

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.15 +0.11%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.04 +0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.06 +0.25%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.05 +0.38%
An inverted, flat curve with rate cuts fully baked in.

Investment Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

Will Vladimir Putin pose naked to win back Russian affections?
Will China buy Venezuela?
Will Whole Foods open stores across India?
Will Kim Jong Un release a fitness video?

An Unserious Look at the Year Ahead