Weekly Recap: Freedom to Win

world.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.38%
CAC(FRA) -1.02%
UKX(GBR) +0.32%
NKY(JPN) +2.84%
SPX(USA) +0.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.01%
INMEX(MEX) -1.17%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -11.52%
XU030(TUR) -3.38%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.09%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.08%
NIFTY(IND) +0.18%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.58%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.97%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -2.98%
Ethanol +2.19%
Heating Oil -1.20%
Natural Gas +12.77%
RBOB Gasoline -2.40%
WTI Crude Oil -2.73%
Metals
Copper -0.33%
Gold 100oz -0.03%
Palladium -2.37%
Platinum -1.35%
Silver 5000oz -5.66%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.65% USDJPY:+2.16%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.77%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.60%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.06%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.77%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.15%
USDINR(IND) +0.44%
USDRUB(RUS) +8.63%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.38%
Agricultural
Cattle -1.60%
Cocoa +0.78%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.94%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.56%
Corn -2.33%
Cotton +0.61%
Feeder Cattle +1.73%
Lean Hogs +0.70%
Lumber +0.43%
Orange Juice -5.07%
Soybean Meal +1.32%
Soybeans -2.50%
Sugar #11 -2.06%
Wheat -3.20%
White Sugar -1.04%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.14%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.38%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.85%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -0.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.08%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.75%
Markit iTraxx Europe -2.67%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -8.85%
Markit iTraxx Japan -4.21%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.66%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.00%
The US Dollar continued to rally with the Ruble and Yen bearing the brunt. Oil continued its slide.

Nifty heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Index Returns

index performance.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.08% 72/68
2 +3.25% 78/61
3 +3.16% 77/62
4 +3.00% 70/69
5 +2.24% 75/65
6 +1.28% 70/69
7 +3.19% 75/65
8 +2.16% 71/68
9 +1.96% 75/65
10 (mega) +0.72% 70/70
Midcaps outperformed the large caps this week…

Top winners and losers

ZEEL +8.03%
CUMMINSIND +9.15%
GLENMARK +11.34%
GAIL -8.27%
NMDC -7.69%
COALINDIA -7.02%
Coal India – soon to be and irrelevant, strike-plagued ex-monopoly.

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +2.83%
INFRABEES +2.70%
BANKBEES +1.30%
NIFTYBEES +0.50%
JUNIORBEES -0.79%
GOLDBEES -1.52%
CPSEETF -2.36%
Banks continued to outperform the rest of the indices. PSU banks – turning around?

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.NOV.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-10-31.2014-11-07

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.39 +0.27%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.21 +0.68%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.18 +0.78%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.07 +0.81%
The entire curve shifted down, and its now flat enough to crack some eggs and make an omelette.

Theme Performance

Thought for the weekend

When you’re in freedom to win mode, you’re constantly focused on improving your position, capabilities and odds of winning. You are always evaluating strategies, and making up clever lines of attack or defense. The activity that glues the rest of your activities together is keeping score.

In poker, due to the inherently probabilistic nature of the game, technically perfect game-play can still lead to a loss, so players of those finite games make sure they keep two kinds of score: actual wins/losses, and a separate score that measures whether or not they played correctly, whatever the outcome.

This separation of technical score-keeping and outcome score-keeping leads to a more dangerous place: score-keeping becoming sufficient to sustain finite-game mindsets even when the game is ambiguous or unclear, and there is no agreement among players about what the goal is.

Money is the classic example of a mechanism for keeping score that is divorced from outcomes.

Read the whole thing here: Don’t Surround Yourself With Smarter People