Public Sector Banks: Is this time different?

A tale of three indices

The NSE has three financial indices listed that provides a rare window into how different parts of the financial sector has performed over the years.

Index Inception Date
CNX PSU BANK 2004-01-01
CNX FINANCE 2004-01-01
CNX BANK 2000-01-01

Return profiles

Returns in the financial sector comes with some very fat tails. If one could consult an oracle on the timing of these big swings, there’s a pretty packet for them.

CNX FINANCE-returns-histogram

CNX BANK-returns-histogram

CNX PSU BANK-returns-histogram

Cumulative returns

If you had stayed invested since 2004-01-01, here’s how much you would have made:

Index Cumulative returns
CNX FINANCE 495%
CNX BANK 455%
CNX PSU BANK 265%

Note: These are cumulative numbers, not annualized returns

CNX FINANCE-returns

CNX BANK-returns

CNX PSU BANK-returns

If you notice, PSU banks are yet to recover from the draw-down that occurred August-2013.

Investors have been on a PSB binge ever since the Modi effect took shape. Will this time be different for investors?

[stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKBEES[/stockquote]