Category: Your Money

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A plunge in recent economic data puts the probability of a double-dip recession above 80%, according to modelling by Bank of America Merrill Lynch released Wednesday, reflecting the toll the U.S. debt downgrade, Europe’s woes and stock market volatility has taken on economic activity.

The recent dismal readings from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve and the University of Michigan were enough for Merrill to raise its overall probability of a contraction in the next year to 40% from 35% at the start of this month.

A survey of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region plunged to its lowest level since March 2009, according to the Fed last week. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since May 1980, according to a Thomson Reuters/University Michigan survey released on August 12.

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The euro-region debt crisis may deepen as eastern European borrowers who took loans in a strengthening Swiss franc struggle to repay western European banks, UBS Wealth Management said.

Lenders including Unicredit SpA (UCG), Erste Group Bank AG (EBS), Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) and Bayerische Landesbank have 80 billion Swiss francs ($101 billion) of household debt in Hungary, Poland and Croatia, emerging-markets analyst Kilian Reber said.

He assigns a 20% to 30% chance of a stronger franc triggering defaults in eastern Europe and fanning the euro-region debt crisis by forcing western European banks to seek new bailouts.

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America’s struggling workforce faces mass unemployment, low pay, inadequate benefits and highly regressive taxation. The centre-right’s ownership society and the centre-left’s knowledge economy are irrelevant to these problems. It is an insult to tell struggling health aides and store clerks to supplement their income by investing in stocks. It is a cruel joke to tell most of them that they should go to college, become entrepreneurs and found start-ups.

via The intellectual collapse of left and right – FT.com.