Tag: reading

Sunder’s List: Normandy

Roundup: S&P -1.13%, Dow -0.81%, Nasdaq -1.40%, Gold $1,253.40, London -0.24%, Germany -0.41%, France -0.10%. At pixel: Nikkei -1.61%, Hang Seng -0.55%

Congress can’t catch a break. CAG has highlighted “undue benefit” to the tune of at least Rs.5,887 crore, given by the civil aviation ministry to Mumbai International Airport Ltd (MIAL), a consortium controlled by GVK. (LiveMint, #scam) [stockquote]GVKPIL[/stockquote]

IBM: IT services demand “depends on what the economic climate is, and that has not been very encouraging.” (SA)

Microsoft may launch an Android phone that uses Bing online services. Looks like Project Normandy is a go. (AllthingsD)

Robert Shiller says mismatch between Eugene Fama’s findings and theories must make him feel like a priest who has discovered God does not exist. At the heart of their disagreement: Shiller holds that investors, being human, can be swayed by psychology, Fama contends markets are always efficient, with people incorporating all available information into prices. (Guardian)

Related: Investing Isn’t Rocket Science – No, It’s Harder than That! (CrossingWallStreet)

Good luck!

Sunder’s List: What A Mess!

Roundup: S&P -0.32%, Dow -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.20%, Gold $1258.40, London -0.55%, Germany -0.88%, France -1.04%. At pixel: Nikkei -0.40%, Hang Seng -0.56%

Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) came out with draft rules that will hit the returns of regulated entities in generation and transmission. NTPC will suffer the most, with some brokerages forecasting as much as 6% erosion in its RoE from the current 23%. (LiveMint) [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]

The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has fined Coal India and three of its subsidiaries a combined Rs1,773 crore for misusing their position as monopoly suppliers of coal to fix prices and supply poor-quality coal. (LiveMint) [stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote]

Indian tax authorities say Nokia owes $3.4 billion after mistakenly claiming exemptions on software exports. (WSJ)

The next government in New Delhi will inherit a serious mess that has been created by hubris during the boom years followed by policy paralysis since 2009. (LiveMint, #economy)

New York-based art dealer Subhash Kapoor has been accused of looting over $100 million worth of artifacts from India. (GQ)

Turnover in commodities market has dropped from a daily average of Rs.55,538 crore in April to Rs.18,373 crore in November. Now punters are turning to the futures and options segment of equities from commodities amid an uptick in stock indices. (LiveMint)

European banks: increasingly resembling listless entities devoid of purpose in a capital shadowland that’s not willing to let them move onto another more deathly plane. Large corporates are bypassing banks and tapping markets directly. (FT)

Good luck!

Sunder’s List: Not So Fast!

Roundup: S&P +0.18%, Dow +0.03%, Nasdaq +0.15%, Gold $1241, London +0.11%, Germany +0.25%, France +0.11%. At pixel: Nikkei -0.34%, Hang Seng -0.09%

Headwinds

Don’t underestimate UPA’s ability to put a spanner in the rally: Bond prices fell and yields rose above the 8.90%-mark as investors felt that government borrowings could rise ahead of national polls. Investors are worried about a populist splurge by a desperate government with its backs to the wall. (ET)

BoA-ML’s three reasons to curb your enthusiasm (ET):

  1. The states are traditionally BJP strong-holds
  2. BJP doing well in these states is not enough to indicate the direction of the 2014 election.
  3. The success of the recently formed AAP in Delhi has again reinforced the split nature of Indian politics where the non-Congress, non-BJP regional parties are getting powerful

The odds are close to zero that any administrator, even one as reportedly skilful as Mr Modi, will be able to push through the deep structural changes that Indian businesses needs – reforms to subsidy programmes, for instance, or to outdated labour market and land acquisition rules. (FT)

Tailwinds

2014 could be a banner year for global trade. (Economist)

US, Europe, Japan are all running their printing presses at full speed. And if recent inflation numbers are any indication, they have no incentive to stop their presses. Despite unprecedented efforts and trillions of freshly printed money, inflation in major developing economies is actually heading lower. The OECD reported last Tuesday that the inflation rate in the world’s largest economies fell for a third straight month – the rate for its 34 developed-country members fell to 1.3% from 1.5% in September. (WSJ)

Good luck!

Sunder’s List: For The Win!

Roundup: S&P +1.12%, Dow +1.26%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Gold $1229.60, London +0.83%, Germany +0.96%, France +0.72%. At pixel: Nikkei +1.84%, Hang Seng +0.44%

Tail-winds galore. BJP is winning. No immediate threat of taper. We are set for an awesome Santa Claus rally! (LiveMint, NYT)

Its the inflation, stupid! Above all that ails India under the Congress party, more than corruption or joblessness, the price of onions explains its resounding defeat in the state elections held in recent weeks. India appears to be catching the Latin American disease: rising prices and falling growth. (FT, #inflation)

What happens after a long period of miraculous growth? Lessons from other emerging markets (MPettis):

First, the investment-led growth miracle always culminated in a period during which debt began to grow at an unsustainable pace, and in every case the miracle was brought to a halt either because of a debt crisis.

Second, in every single case even the greatest of skeptics arguing against the sustainability of the growth miracle ended up wildly underestimating the difficulty of the subsequent adjustment.

Third, the adjustment period was never just a period of difficult economic adjustment. It was also always a period of tremendous political difficulty, fractious political disputes and, more often than not, a period of radical political transformation.

There are three major domestic airlines that haven’t tied up with foreigners. Market leader IndiGo is closely held and considered the strongest of the bunch. State-owned Air India constantly turns to taxpayers for bailouts and isn’t under the same commercial pressure. That leaves budget airline SpiceJe all alone. Loans of $40 million are due in 12 months and the company isn’t generating the needed funds. Its losses widened to about $80 million in the latest quarter, almost four times the loss a year earlier. (WSJ)

It is past time for the U.S. and Canada to eliminate their border — either by creating a customs and monetary union or, more radically, by merging outright into a single nation-state or a European Union-style partnership. (WSJ)

Now, Bitcoin Option Spreads. What could go wrong? (ZH)

Good luck!

Sunder’s List: I didn’t knew

Roundup: S&P -0.43%, Dow -0.43%, Nasdaq -0.12%, Gold $1225.50, London -0.18%, Germany -0.61%, France -1.17%. At pixel: Nikkei +0.17%, Hang Seng -0.22%

Jignesh Shah’s defense: “Oh really?! I didn’t knew!” (WSJ) [stockquote]MCX[/stockquote] [stockquote]FINANTECH[stockquote]

Rural demand for personal and home care products has begun to taper off. Growth across rural markets between January and September slowed to 4% from 7% in the year-ago period. Urban growth (across categories) declined from 8% to 2% in the same period. (LiveMint, CONSUMER GOODS)

Private-equity investors aren’t convinced the rupee’s decline is over. Cheap money from the West will go away eventually and the rupee’s value will be determined by India’s economic health. In the long term, India’s persistent inflation looks to be a negative factor, as it erodes the purchasing power of the currency. (WSJ, #inflation)

Interest rate futures would be permitted on 91-day treasury bills, two, five and ten year government bonds. But the regulators have capped the amount of trades that foreign investors could do. They cannot use this for trading, but use it only for hedging. Also, the RBI has said banks shall not participate in IRF trading till it approves. (ET)

Wall Street analysts, big-picture strategists and powerful consultants have turned cold on oil, metals and grain futures as a decade-long rally peters out. Of 912 hedge funds, money managers and proprietary and corporate trading desks surveyed by Barclays, only 6% said commodities will generate the best returns in the next three months, while a majority picked equities. (FT)

Banks and hedge funds stealthily creating ‘hit lists.’ Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and South Africa are now very vulnerable to currency swings. Hungary, China, Korea, Poland, the Philippines and Mexico are less vulnerable, since all of these, excluding China, have seen improvements in their current account positions. India lies somewhere in the middle of Nomura’s ‘hit list.’ (FT)

Good luck and have a nice weekend!