Tag: gold

Is a bottom in sight for Gold?

The price of gold in USD terms is approaching the cost of production:


Simple logic would dictate that gold miners will start mothballing mines if its no longer feasible to mine and ship gold.


It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the days to come…


Gold trumps stocks for third Diwali in row

The yellow metal is on course to record sparkling returns for third year in row despite a strong year for equities.

While investors in gold have reaped over 15% returns since last Diwali, the returns from Sensex has been a fixed deposit-like gain of about 8.5 % for the same period.

While the precious metal has risen from Rs 26,700 levels last Diwali to Rs 30,700 currently, the BSE benchmark Sensex has risen from near-17,300 levels to 18,755 since last Diwali. Gold prices have also more than tripled from Rs 10,000 levels to Rs 31,000 in the last five years. India is the largest consumer of gold with an annual demand of about 700 tonnes.


The fact that gold jewelry and investment demand remains robust despite the rising prices is a reflection of the inherent desire among Indians to hold gold driven mainly by its alluring appeal as a jewelry and as a safe-haven against inflation that erodes both savings and income.

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, inflationary pressures and the still-shaky outlook for economic growth in developed countries is driving high levels of investment demand for the precious metal.


From gold coins, gold jewelry to MFs and ETFs, robust consumer appetite in gold’s cultural heartlands, India and China, has seen global prices rise from $270 an ounce in 2001to more than $1700 an ounce as on November this year. India, the world’s largest gold consumer and China account for over 55% of global gold jewelry demand and 52% gold investment demand.

Gold is being seen as a safest hedge against credit risk, currency risk and inflation that has besieged the financial world in the last decade. With the financial world navigating from one hurdle to another like the mortgage crisis to the banking crisis to the current sovereign debt crisis, investors have sought refuge under gold to protect their wealth.


Apart from sluggish growth in stock markets and high inflation rates, a spurt in central banks gold buying since 2009 after being net seller for over two decades has also contributed significantly to demand and thereby prices.

Off late, gold ETF investments are gaining ground at a rapid pace and are increasingly emerging as preferred route for long term investment in gold.

Technical Analysis

Despite the Finance Ministry’s measures to discourage investments in gold, assets under management of gold ETFs crossed the Rs 11,000 crore mark in September this year from Rs 10,701 crore in August and Rs 5,000 cr in May 2011, reflecting the robust appetite for the yellow metal.

Even as jewelry demand has been declining due to the volatile prices, a reflection of the price-sensitive nature of this segment, the rush for gold ETFs has meant that AUMs have soared from Rs 138 crore in April 2007 to Rs 11,198 crore in September, 2012 — over 80 times in 5 years.

With Diwali and Dhanteras round the corner, festive flavor is expected to add more color to the yellow metal and garner greater portfolio share of investors.

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China to overtake India in one more thing

National emblem of the People's Republic of China

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Warren Buffet may not like gold that much, but apparently Indians and Chinese haven’t received his latest newsletter. And not only that, China is set to overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of gold. Chinese demand has more than tripled from 2010.

Given that both growth and inflation remain high in China, it appears that gold is being seen as a hedge against inflation. Also, Beijing has encouraged gold consumption, announcing in 2010 measures to promote and regulate the local gold market, including expanding the number of banks allowed to import bullion.

After completely dominating the copper market (China accounts for 40% of global copper demand), it appears that China is about to wade into the bullion shop.

Investors looking to get exposure to gold via ETFs can look towards GOLDBEES or KOTAKGOLD.

Source: FT

Sunder’s List

English: CNBC’s “Mad Money with Jim Cramer” ca...

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Europe is beginning to get tiring. All the announcements and the subsequent denials put the market through a 3 days up-down cycle. Citi says that we need to write-off Europe for the next three years. The bounce off over-sold conditions (the dead cat bounce) can’t hide material weakness in US stocks.

However, there are a couple of contrarian signals that we need to be aware of. One of them is Jim Cramer asking us to sell the rally. Usually he is a good indicator of what not to do. The other is that the S&P 500 is potentially showing an inverse H&S. As goes America, so goes the world, so watch out for that breakout.

At least one big fan of gold is waiting on the sidelines: Jim Rogers says that the yellow metal is in for a correction. Be aware.

Good luck and follow me on twitter!

Everybody (and their mother) is getting out of the Euro

Maps shows a group of countries known as the P...

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Not to kick a man when he is down, but the news about institutions, depositors and finally money market funds getting rid of Euros have been piling up. US funds have been cutting exposure to both European banks as well as PIIGS debt. Even a German holiday company (TUI) started preparing for a Euro pull-out. Warren Buffet thinks the EU cannot be saved in its current form and Soros has been a hater all along.

The latest meme in this train-wreck is that PIIGS under pressure in the bond-market should offer gold as their collateral! If it worked for India in the 90’s, it should work for Europe in the 10’s, yeah? Even though I was ten at that time, I still remember the popular outrage when India shipped 47 tons of gold to England. What a reversal of fortunes it would be if Europe were forced to ship their gold to China. Italy holds about 2,400 tons of gold in its vaults, I hope the Chinese have built a big enough room to hold all that metal.