Analysis: SYMPHONY

Today’s pick is SYMPHONY [stockquote]SYMPHONY[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a range bound movement, which broke out on the downside to reach Rs. 200 levels. After finding support there, the stock started its up-move to see its 52 weeks high of Rs. 455 in October. It then retraced the gains to find support at Rs. 300 levels. Since then the stock has been on an up-trend. In the last three months, the stock moved +21% vs. a flat Nifty.

SYMPHONY Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are crawling towards over-bought territory. The stock has just broken out of a channel and is currently trading at the top of the Bollinger bands.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other, not giving any direction to the stock. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

SYMPHONY correlation chart

SYMPHONY’s average correlation with the Nifty is zero. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SYMPHONY Volatility chart

SYMPHONY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 1 to 4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Globe capital has a buy call based on fundamentals:

· Q2FY2013 financial performance – 48% growth in PAT

· Large dealer-distribution network

· Exports to boost sales in near term

· Increasing temperature and global warming to fuel demand for air coolers

· Industrial air cooling – growth driver to profitability

Given the technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term BUY. Also, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

Analysis: DRREDDY

Today’s pick is DRREDDY [stockquote]DRREDDY[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with an up-move to Rs. 1,800 levels. After experiencing resistance at those levels, the stock started its move down. It then saw head-and-shoulders bottom formation during May to July, and since then it has been on an up-trend. It saw the 52 weeks high of Rs. 1,970 in February, but since then was on a down-trend to find support on the trend-line. In the last three months, the stock moved -1% vs. +1 of the Nifty’s.

DRREDDY technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw 4X9 and 4X18 bullish SMA cross-over combined with a Dragonfly bullish Doji yesterday.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

DRREDDY correlation chart

DRREDDY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.35 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

DRREDDY volatility chart

DRREDDY has a historical volatility in the narrow range of 0.25 to 0.45. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term BUY. A long-term BUY is also suggested based on the support provided by the trend-line. However, it is advisable to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

Analysis: ICICIBANK (IBN)

Today’s pick is ICICIBANK [stockquote]ICICIBANK[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a downward move to reach Rs. 800 levels. After finding support for a couple of weeks the stock started its up-ward movement. It saw the 52 weeks high of Rs. 1,210 in February, but since then was on a down-trend to find support on the trend-line. In the last three months, the stock moved +2% same as that of the Nifty’s.

ICICIBANK technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the upper side of Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw 4X9 and 4X18 bullish SMA cross-over.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

ICICIBANK correlation chart

ICICIBANK’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.82 which is positive and very strong. The scrip will be closely replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

ICICIBANK volatility chart

ICICIBANK has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

ICICIBANK analysts coverage

Analysts have positive expectations regarding this stock. Less than expected earnings might hit the street expectations in the coming reviews and might impact the stock as well.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A long-term call could be taken depending on the price action around Rs. 1,200 levels. It is also suggested to have tight trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2013-03-04.2013-03-08

The NIFTY ended on a bullish note, shooting up +4.16% for the week.
Biggest losers were HINDUNILVR (-3.31%), AMBUJACEM (-2.67%) and BAJAJ-AUTO (-0.73%).
And the biggest winners were IDFC (+9.76%), SESAGOA (+8.57%) and ICICIBANK (+7.85%).
Advancers lead decliners 44 vs 6
Gold: -0.22%, Banks: +3.96%. Infrastructure: +1.27%,
Net FII flows for the week: $364.58 mm (Equity) and $353.58 mm (Debt)

Banking for the poor: Will corporates do what PSUs failed to?

In India, there are about 6,00,000 villages, but out of these only 60,000 villages have banking facilities which means 90 % of the villages are unbanked. Against such a grim background, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent decision to issue new licences to private corporates and public sector entities has aroused renewed hopes of improving banking services in unbanked areas.

Since India has opted for a bank-driven model to achieve financial inclusion, banks will play a crucial role in the whole process of inclusive growth.

STATE-WISE DATA

So far, RBI has made the right noises as far as improving financial inclusion is concerned saying banks must view it as a business opportunity rather than an obligation. While issuing guidelines for bank licences in February, RBI had said, “The business plan of applicants will have to address how the bank proposes to achieve financial inclusion.”

While the intent of institutions and regulators is little to doubt, they have all come a cropper as far as execution is concerned and it is high time that we differentiate the ‘doers’ from the ‘talkers’?

Financial inclusion has been a dud so far due to lack of technology, lack of a viable business model, higher cost of transactions and absence of reach and coverage, etc.

SEPT 2012

Every year, the government spends thousands of crores (Rs 14,000 crore in 2013-14) in recapitalising public sector banks to enable timely and adequate credit and other financial services to the weaker sections and low income groups. However, PSU banks have failed to extend basic banking services to the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ due to various factors like lack of clear policy framework and poor infrastructure and execution, resulting in financial inclusion remaining only on paper.

Institutions must overcome primary challenges like high cost of transactions, huge initial investments to create the necessary infrastructure and other expenses like financial education for the poor before financial inclusion can yield dividends.

But in this era of cut-throat competition, where banks are constantly driven by higher interest margins and intoxicated by the ideology of profit maximisation, asking bankers and financial executives to opt for social banking is a conflicting proposition that makes for a great headline but will make little headway.

Past efforts like nationalisation of banks, Lead Bank Scheme, development of Regional Rural Banks and formation of Self-Help Groups to take banking services to the masses have failed to increase penetration. Even the much-famed business correspondents (BCs) model has been a laggard.

 

FINANCIAL COMPARISON

In this context, a critical question that matters is- will corporates be able to design and deliver innovative financial services at affordable cost?

Corporates must create better awareness about banking facilities and design products which are poor-centric to ensure that the poor shed their inhibitions while approaching a bank.

Another area that corporates must grapple with is the high clout that politicians and bureaucrats wield in rural areas. Driven by electoral gains, many politicians exercise undue influence to push PSU banks to extend agricultural credit and other goodies to rural households, particularly close to elections. (Example- Rs 52,000 crore Farm Loan waiver.)

 

GRAPH

In the case of the farm loan waiver, a lot of funds, aimed at poor farmers, were allegedly diverted by middlemen and politicians. The mandate for corporates is to use financial inclusion to effectively check corruption and empower the poor.

But since they have been mandated to open only 25% of the branches in unbanked areas, it is hard to figure out if they can make any meaningful impact in addressing financial inclusion.

[stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKBEES[/stockquote]