Tag: reading

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Will UP really go bankrupt if FDI in retail were allowed? Why is TN and WB opposing foreign investment? In the meantime, why is the farmer’s association in favor of it? The funny thing is that we already have FDI in retail except that it is for cash-and-carry “wholesale” only. But whatever the original intent was, it has been diluted to mean a minimum of Rs.1000 ($20) per purchase, that can be paid using a credit-card and can include anything from liquor, food and soap! So what is the whole ruckus in the parliament really about?

The problem, apparently, is that if you give a choice between getting ripped off at the corner store and buying stuff in a clean, organized environment, the aam aadmi will chose the latter. So what are the traders in the kirana stores to do if everybody chooses to shop wisely? Its like saying, lets not build a bridge across the river because that would drive the ferry out of business. Building the bridge is a common good. It cuts down on travel time, it makes it cheaper and safer. And hence, the cost to society of the ferry going out of business is outweighed by the benefits.

Lets apply that logic to multi-brand retail. Its no secret that there’s tremendous waste and corruption not only in food-processing but in every step of our supply-chain. The government or the domestic industry, on its own, neither has the will, money or the expertise to setup a system that can fix those problems. After spending an inordinate amount of time in decision-making limbo and almost a year with inflation in double digits, the government finally mustered up the courage to put this in play. And now the peanut gallery has erupted in self-righteous rage.

So what are the nay sayers protesting against anyways? Are they against brining down inflation? Are they against reducing waste in our supply-chain? Are they against more choices for the aam aadmi? Are they against getting farmers paid market rates for their work? They are protesting against something that is for the common good; supported by trade organizations that represent the kirana stores. In the end, the aam aadmi can only vote but the traders can pay.

Support FDI in retail! It is the right thing to do.

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It appears that the EU is fast approaching the end-game. The Germans will not allow the ECB to print money and buy bonds. And neither will they allow PIIGS to default and quit. The only thing left on the table is tighter integration where austerity coupled with a transfer union will stabilize the Euro. The Germans seem to be hell bent on a treaty change and a move towards a fiscal union with tighter budget controls, even if that means removing democratically elected governments and replacing them with ‘technocrats’ favorable to Germany.

With Italy in dire straits, it appears that IMF has chalked up a $800 billion loan in case its debt crisis worsens. The funny thing is the largest contributor to the IMF is the US (18%). Wonder how that would go down with the Congress. But rumors of the IMF loan to Italy has sent stocks soaring, for now.

Since the US is going to be on the hook anyways, why not allow Uncle Ben to buy up all Euro debt? Maybe the only response to the current existential threat to Europe would be for the Fed to print dollars and buy up, say, €2 trillion of bonds? If it is presented as a choice between printing and fascism, Bernanke might just get away with it.

The fact remains that the world desperately needs the West to reflate.

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Continuation of the review of the 4th chapter of John J. Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (prev.)

Trendlines

The simplest trendlines are the up trendline: a straight line drawn upward along successive reaction lows. A tentative trendline is initially drawn under the first two consecutively higher lows (points 1 & 3) and then confirmed at the 3rd test (ponit 5). A down trendline is similarly constructed over consecutively lower rally highs.

To draw a trendline:

• The peak at 2 should be penetrated
• 50% retracement of wave 2-3
• Prices approach the top of 2
• Confirmed once prices bounce off the line the third time (point 5)

As long as the trendlines are not violated, it can be used as buying and selling areas. A violation, however, is one of the best early warning of a change in trend. The longer the trend and the number of times it has been tested, the more its importance. Once a reversal occurs, what was once an up trendline, now acts as a resistance barrier for subsequent rallies. And what was once a down trendline, acts as support.

Up Next: The Fan Principle