Gold vs. Jewelry

Today’s collapse in Gold took down gold jewelers like Titan (-5.05%), Gitanjali (-2.98%) along with gold lenders like Muthoot (-12.71%) and Manappuram (-9.84%). I understand why gold loan companies might be in trouble if the downtrend continues. The biggest question being whether their customers can top up their LTV given that the collateral is down -13.81% this year? However, unless the jewelry guys got into some nasty hedging bets, isn’t falling gold prices a net positive to them?

Women secretly know that gold jewelry is a bad investment. Trinkets falls 30% in value the minute you take it out of the showroom. The investment angle was something that they use to make men feel better about blowing away money. The drop in gold prices actually makes it more affordable so I would expect foot traffic to retail jewelers would actually increase.

As price decreases, consumers will buy more of the good.

There are significant headwinds affecting gold. Chief among them the ECB’s pressurization of Cyprus’ central bank to sell its gold reserves to help pay for the country’s bailout. That has raised expectations that other distressed euro-zone members might be forced to sell gold as well. Other factors include bearish forecasts such as from Goldman Sachs, the slow improvement in the U.S. economy, and the perception that gold is no longer needed as a safe haven.

However, if you are with me on the thesis that, in reality, jewelry buyers are not buying gold for investment but for consumption, then the drop in gold prices are a net positive to jewelry companies.

[stockquote]GITANJALI[/stockquote] [stockquote]MUTHOOTFIN[/stockquote] [stockquote]MANAPPURAM[/stockquote] [stockquote]TITAN[/stockquote] [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote]

Introduction to Financial Markets

Ever wonder why we have banks? Where does money come from? Why do we need the Reserve Bank? And yet, these concepts and institutions touch every facet of our lives. Let’s begin a journey to understand the basics of this financial system we are in. Over a period of the next few weeks, we’ll go over the different spokes of the financial wheel from a beginner’s point of view.

Reference material for the following posts comes from the book ‘An Introduction to Global Financial Markets’ by Stephen Valdez.

Why do we need any financial markets? Who are the players?

First there are parties who need to borrow money – these parties could be individuals, like you, private companies or governments. People may need to borrow money to pay off home loans and so on, private companies may need to borrow money to further their growth and expansion, and we all know governments need to spend a lot of money on public projects for which taxes collected from citizens is probably not going to be sufficient!

Then, believe it or not there are parties with surplus funds that they are willing to lend to the borrowers. We all know that idle cash doesn’t make money on its own! They may be people depositing savings in a bank, insurance or pension funds, or companies with profits to invest. In an ideal world where every borrower could meet a lender and vice versa without any intermediary, there would be no need for financial institutions or markets. But as it happens, we need intermediaries to facilitate the transactions between borrowers and lenders – the intermediaries are banks, other financial institutions and markets.

To give you a perspective – a private investor might deposit money in a bank at a 10% rate of interest p.a. for her savings account. Meaning that for a deposit of Rs. 1,00,000, she will get Rs. 1,10,000 back from the bank at the end of the year. How will the bank get the additional Rs. 10,000 to pay the investor at the end of the year? Obviously the bank will need to invest that money elsewhere, where the rate of interest is greater than 10% p.a. leaving enough profit for the bank to pay back the investor plus a surplus amount which is income for itself. We’ll see what options the bank has in a bit, but before that let’s take a look at the different types of securities in play in the financial markets.

Securities at play

Bonds

Bonds, also called debt instruments, are securities that pay out fixed amounts at regular intervals. That’s why bonds are also known as fixed income products or securities. Governments or private companies issue bonds when they want to raise capital. The purchaser of a bond is basically granting a loan to the issuer, which will be paid back over at the end of the borrowing duration. In the meantime, fixed interest payments are made by the borrower (the bond issuer) to the lender (purchaser). The fixed interest payments are also called coupons because in the days of yore, bonds were actually pieces of paper with the principal amount borrowed, interest rate and maturity printed on them. Interest payments could be redeemed by tearing off the coupons attached to the bond!

In our banking example above, the bank could purchase a fixed interest bond with a 12% rate of interest p.a. That means the bank earns Rs. 1,12,000 at the end of the year, leaving enough money to pay back the private investor in addition to a Rs. 2,000 profit for itself.

Of course, the ability of the borrower/issuer of the bond to pay back the principal depends on their creditworthiness which is what makes the bond desirable to purchasers. A government for instance, is considered safe as it’s unlikely to go bankrupt and will be able to repay its borrowings. The creditworthiness of private companies is a range determined by several credit ratings agencies such as Moody’s or Standard and Poor’s who assign ratings based on their analysis of the company’s liquidity.

Equity

The terms equity, common stock and shares are used interchangeably to mean the same thing. Shares are another means for companies to raise money from investors, but unlike bonds where fixed interest payments are made in return for the investment, shareholders don’t get fixed payments but actually own part of the company, corresponding to their share in the company’s profits. The percentage of the company owned by a shareholder would be proportional to the number of shares they own as a percentage of the total number of shares of that company in circulation. If this is the first time the company has issued shares to the public to raise capital, it’s called a new issue or the Initial Public Offering (IPO). Unlike in the case of bonds, there is no expectation for the company to return the original investment; the returns are realized in the form or capital gains when the company is profitable. Since the investor is part owner of the company, profitability increases the share prices, so the shareholder can sell the shares to other interested investors at a higher price in the secondary market.

We shall cover both these types of securities in much more detail in the coming weeks in addition to the several more complicated securities like options, swaps, forwards, futures and derivatives.

Next week, we talk about the history of banking and the different types of banking – commercial banking and investment banking. Stay tuned!

[stockquote]SHALPAINTS[/stockquote]

Indian Corporate Bond Market – Waiting for Godot?

Corporate bonds, as a percentage of India’s GDP, are at an abysmal low. This is in stark contrast to the equities market which has seen tremendous growth over the last few decades. Corporate bonds in India add a mere 5.48% to GDP versus USA (90.27%), Japan (37%) and China (24.05%).

bonds
Source: BIS Quarterly Review and IMF World Economic Outlook Database

Growth of the corporate bond market is vital as it creates low cost investment opportunities for businesses apart from banks, and offers yield premium opportunities for investors. Did you know that the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was originally set up to facilitate bond trading? The picture today belies the fact.

How did this happen?

Corporate bond market in India – The premise

The bond market segment in the country predominantly consists of government securities. Corporate bonds capture a small slice of 4.74% of the debt market. YoY growth in corporate bonds is also slow – only 19% versus 90% in Treasury bills. Also, the existing corporate bond market in India is largely driven by banks and other financial institutions rather than infrastructure companies or the manufacturing sector (considered indicators of infrastructural growth in the country). The lack of participation has dampened corporate interest and media attention in corporate bonds, making bank loans the primary source of debt capital. This lack of liquidity also forces corporate borrowers to prefer private placements over public issues for bonds.

bonds as a percentage of gdp

Lastly, the RBI controls most of the bond market and is not in any hurry to loosen its control. Interestingly, there has never been a dearth of corporate bond buyers with foreign investors more than willing to put in their money into creditable bonds. There just hasn’t been much for them to buy.

Challenges facing the corporate bond market

Infrastructural improvements made to facilitate the equity market are conspicuously absent in the debt market space that has to contend with:

  • Reduced incentive of Indian banks as the statutory lending ratio of 23% requires them to put roughly a quarter of their deposits into government bonds
  • Illiquid securities
  • Low investor awareness
  • Lack of transparency – no live trading market or access to live pricing
  • Resistance from bond houses and debt arrangers

The future of corporate bonds

In February, Reliance Industries Limited [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote] raised $800m via perpetual bonds from investors abroad at a coupon rate of 5.875% – a first strong move in a struggling national corporate debt market. In fact, all Indian issues that completed in Jan 2013 have been very well received and oversubscribed, demonstrating the strength of international capital markets for Indian corporate bonds.

Recently, the government decided to reduce withholding tax on infrastructure bonds – a positive move for the corporate bond market. Are these reforms too late in the day for the corporate bond market to thrive? I don’t think so. The Indian market is gradually opening up to foreign investors and larger corporate stakeholders. Once liquidity starts pouring in, corporate bonds are sure to become a critical pillar supporting India’s growth.

Why I don’t watch CNBC or NDTV Profit or…

I don’t watch CNBC, or NDTV Profit, or ET Now, or… Let me just bunch all of these together and refer to them as CNBC – the pioneer in real-time financial entertainment.

CNBC’s goal is not to make you money, but to sell advertising. In fact, if you use any website or TV channel or magazine that shows you ads, you should understand that the product that they are selling is YOU (to their advertisers.)

The structure of CNBC is to keep you on the edge of your seat. To keep you dependent on them for information on what to do next. They want you to live in fear and react to every little hiccup in the market. The ugly truth is that by the time any news hits CNBC, you, as an individual investor, is far behind the eight ball.

Market timing is nearly impossible. It may be blindingly obvious in hindsight, but at that very moment, even the good lord Brahma cannot tell you whether something has bottomed or topped.

How can you predict where the NIFTY is going to be in a year’s time when cannot even state with certainty that are you are not going to be hit by a truck while crossing the road?

How many of their “experts” are actually accountable to you? How many times have you heard anyone of them say “I don’t know” as an answer to a question?

Does knowing what the CEO had for lunch that day make you an expert in that company?

Does it matter what Ganesha predicts?

Watch CNBC for entertainment value, not for investment advice.

FLSRC: Government’s writ on monetary policy is suicidal

The sweeping recommendations of the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) headed by Justice B N Srikrishna has stirred a hornet’s nest. Prima facie, the report gives an impression that it is aimed at clipping the wings of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor and seeks greater role for the government in financial regulation, especially in monetary policy affairs.

The Finance Ministry and the RBI Governor have always been at loggerheads. Current Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s run-ins with past Governor YV Reddy and his predecessor and current Governor D Subbarao is now part of financial folklore.

POLICY RATES OF COUNTRIES The proposals that have generated much noise are setting up of a unified financial regulator by subsuming current sectoral heads like Sebi, Irda, PFRDA and FMC. Regulators will no doubt be fuming, as they will be jobless once FSLRC proposals are implemented. It is debatable if multiple regulators have stifled growth in the financial sector or lack of innovative financial products.

But the over-arching proposals concerning greater accountability of the RBI and the government setting monetary policy goals for the central bank will have wide ramifications.

According to FSLRC, policy rates will be determined by a MPC (monetary policy committee) comprising of two members from the RBI and five members appointed by the government, thereby giving the government greater say over policy. This means, effectively, the RBI governor will no longer have the final word on monetary policy.

There is logic in this view, since in a democracy, an elected government must helm policy affairs. The objective that the central bank must pursue should be defined by the government. But vesting powers with the centre can be dangerous as politically-elected governments tend to favour cheap money policy, while economically sound central banks generally are far more conservative and look for macro-economic stability and not merely growth. Also, it is debatable if the government possesses the necessary expertise and domain knowledge to carry out monetary policy functions considering that they are not elected through merit.

TREND IN POLICY RATES

 

The unified financial regulatory model has been prevalent in global financial system. But with global economy ravaged by one crisis after another, it is foolhardy to borrow a failed model. Rather, the Indian financial system, with its multiple regulators and stiff norms, had come in for immense praise after the global financial crisis in 2008. Isn’t it practical to stick to a model that has withstood the tough times?

The report said that there will be a quantifiable numerical target set by the government that must be met. In the Indian context, it is doubtful if it is feasible to set an inflation or growth target.

STRUCTURE OF FINANCIAL SUPERVISION

The committee has also suggested that the government will frame rules with respect to capital inflows like FDI, FII and NRI deposits against the present system of RBI. Four members of the panel have expressed their opposition to dilution of RBI’s powers on this front.

One area where unanimity seems to exist is the creation of a debt management office (DMO) for raising resources for the government which, at present, is managed by the RBI.

Many experts have warned of conflict of interest saying RBI’s role in monetary policy and managing the centre’s borrowing calendar may give the central bank a bias in keeping interest rates low. Creation of a separate agency will eliminate this loophole.

While FSLRC talks about accountability of the RBI, it is silent on seeking more answers from the government on fiscal policies. The government’s track record of fiscal deficit is there for all to see. The RBI, currently, enjoys the highest levels of credibility in the eyes of the public.

BAD GROWTH MIX

If the government, in its current form and public perception, takes control of monetary policy, the credibility and legitimacy of the entire process will be seen as suspect. Already, the government’s writ runs over financial regulators since almost all the current sectoral watchdogs are appointed by the government. Should we reward the government’s ineptitude with more responsibility? I think not!