Japan: Wild-Wild East

The Nikkei Stock Average closed down 5.2% today, hitting a four-week low (but up 30.7% so far this year.) The market there has been on steroids ever since the launch of Abenomics: an aggressive easing program to rid the world’s third-largest economy of over 15 years of deflation. Its goal? To get inflation up to 2%.

But how much can a central bank do? Its 10-year bond yield is already sub 1% and debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to hit 245% this year. Its probably got the world’s worst demographics: average age is around 47 years… and shrinking: the fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman, vs 2.1 that is needed to maintain a stable population.

In fact, Japan’s economy collapsed into deflation just as its demographics ‘rolled over’ in the mid-1990s.

 

Japan - demographics

Back in 2010, Dylan Grice had predicted Abenomics:

So the path of least political resistance will presumably be to keep yields at levels which the Japanese government can afford to pay, and to stabilise JGBs at levels which won’t blow up the financial system. This will involve the BoJ buying any/all bonds the market can no longer absorb, probably under the intellectual camouflage of a quantitative easing program aimed at breaking Japan’s deflationary psychology. Economists might applaud such a step as finally showing the BoJ was getting serious about Japan’s problems. In fact, it will be the opening chapter of a long period of inflation instability.

 

Grab a box of popcorn, the show is just getting started.

Source:
Rethinking Abenomics
Dylan Grice on Japan

 

A dose of realism

When the markets keep going up and to the right, it is easy to forget that most of the momentum in the markets is built on quicksand, or so says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

 

Interest rates are already near zero across the developed world, public debts are much higher than in 2007, unemployment is already at a post-EMU high in Europe and 27% in Spain. And HSBC says that they “see building evidence of a cyclical downturn.”

 

The last time, the BRICS were in the mid stages of a roaring boom, strong enough to weather the Lehman shock. China responded with what is probably the greatest loan spree in history – $14 trillion of extra credit in four years. None of this can be done again. The BRICS are now nursing post-bubble hangovers as well, and China’s Politburo has no intention of repeating what it deems to have been a serious error.

 

So if this is right and if OECD economies are headed for a cyclical downturn, then all this talk about “tapering” by the US Fed is just that – talk. The Fed is unlikely to risk premature tightening that might plunge the US economy back into a recession. And if reduced Chinese demand for commodities keep raw material prices down, then as Jefferies’ strategists said recently, its almost a global “goldilocks” from the Indian viewpoint.

 

Source: No saviour in sight as world credit cycle rolls over

 

 

Prasar Bharati – An Expensive White Dinosaur

Freedom of the press is one of the biggest tenets of democracy. Media may go overboard at times but no one can deny that it is playing a crucial role in exposing the darker underbelly of Indian bureaucratism and politics today. But not Prasar Bharati, the national public broadcaster of India behind Doordarshan (DD) and All India Radio (AIR) and government stooge.

Even as the public broadcaster faces ridicule for its incompetence, outdated journalism and bureaucratic red tape, the government plans to pump in funds amounting to ₹21.80 billion to turnaround the sharp decline of the “autonomous” body. It’s just another sinkhole for taxpayer’s money, if you ask me.

Like various other government projects, Prasar Bharati is suffering from the consequences of bureaucratic mismanagement, lack of leadership, and political intervention. Prasar Bharati’s Board chairperson Mrinal Pande was openly vocal about it  at the inaugural meet of the Sam Pitroda expert committee set up to revive Prasar Bharati. He slammed the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (I&B), blaming “intricate circles of bureaucratic power” for the broadcaster’s current state.

Français : de la rubalise.

Didn’t Ajay Shukla, hired from a private TV channel to head DD’s primetime program News Night quit the very day after he subjected BJP’s Tarun Vijay to some hard questions? Is this the “autonomy” the government wants to protect? If so, isn’t this corruption of media?

Minister Manish Tewari admitted that two thirds of the I&B ministry’s budget (almost ₹18.85 billion out of ₹28 billion) goes to Prasar Bharati. The Ministry is the recruiting, disciplinary, and sanctioning authority of the broadcaster and the government is the largest advertizer on DD and AIR. Obviously, the broadcaster cannot bite the very hand that feeds it.

Minister Tewari made no attempt to disguise the government’s intention to leverage Prasar Bharati heavily to generate wide-spread awareness of government schemes for the welfare of people. Nothing wrong with that but will Prasar Bharati have a free hand in picking and choosing subjects? It’s doubtful.

As it is, Prasar Bharati is losing audiences in rural and urban areas where alternative media channels are available, thanks to DTH. That’s not to say that other media channels are top quality but at least they’re on the ball.

Pitroda’s expert committee may make umpteen plans to leverage social media, recruit new talent, and leverage a new business model for Prasar Bharati to become profitable but that’s not going to happen. With the government calling the shots, what are the chances that Prasar Bharati’s prospects will improve? Not unless TRAI’s recommendation is implemented – bar Union and State governments and their owned companies from the business of broadcasting and distributing television channels.

People are not fools. DD and AIR are not losing out because of outdated content alone. They are simply not trusted as reliable sources. Unless Prasar Bharati manages to break out of the government’s stronghold, no amount of funds is going to change its story.

 

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How do stock exchanges work?

Today, we’re going to try to understand the basic of how the mysterious world of stock exchanges work. What are the different types of trading systems? How are the players in the markets? What do some of the commonly used terms mean? Some of the content below is referenced from the book ‘An Introduction to Global Financial Markets’ by Stephen Valdez.

Stock exchange systems

Usually, systems in stock exchanges cover one of these patterns –Order-driver systems, Quote-driven systems or a mixture of the two.

Order-driven systems

In Order-driven systems, an intermediary, called a broker matches buy and sell orders at a given price. The broker takes no risk in that shares will not be bought or sold unless there is counterparty with the equivalent deal on the other side and only charges commission. Earlier, this activity tool place on a physical floor with the broker for a given share surrounded by others shouting out buys and sells orders. The broker then matched the orders and declared an official price. Nowadays, computer systems are used, at least for the major shares.

English: Stock Exchange. Collins Street, Melbo...

Orders are entered with a price limit, for example a buyer is prepared to buy 500 shares up to a price limit of $154 or a seller will sell 400 shares but at a price no lower than $151. Some enter an order to be filled at ‘market price’. Before the market opens, these orders are fed into the system. When the market opens, the computer calculates the opening price at which the largest number of bids and offers can be matched. All the orders at the market price are filled as far as possible. Unfulfilled orders are carried forward. During market hours, trading takes place on a continuous basis and the arrival of a new order will trigger a match if matching orders exist on the centralized book. An in-depth display of data of a given security is given at the same time.

Quote-driven systems

In quote-driven systems there is someone called a market maker. They continuously quote bid and offer prices at which they will buy and sell shares. The difference between the two is the spread, which is their profit margin. The systems are therefore quotation driven and market makers can change the quotations whenever they wish. The main quotation driven systems are NASDAQ (in the US) and London’s SEAQ (Stock Exchange Automated Quotations).

We have seen two types of traders – the broker and the market maker. Brokers approach market makers on behalf of their clients and either buy shares from them or sell shares to them. They make a living by charging commission and no risk is involved. Sometimes, a broker may match buy/sell orders from a client if the price is better than that available from a market maker. This leads to the term broker-dealer. Large clients like investment institutions don’t have to use a broker but may approach a market maker directly.

Stock borrowing and lending

A dealer may sell shares they don’t have at the moment, i.e. going ‘short’. Instead of buying the stock prior to settlement, they borrow it from institutions that are willing to lend for a commission. Typically, the stock is paid for and the money returned when the dealer actually buys the stock in the open market and returns it to the institution. The process greatly assists the liquidity of the market. On the other hand, institutions also need to fund their ‘long’ positions. One way to fund them is to lend stock not needed and take the money to help fund other positions.

Thus stock lending may be done by institutions merely to enhance income or by dealers as a means of financing their positions.

Settlement

Settlement if the process of paying money and receiving stock or receiving money and delivering the stock, basically ‘making good’ on the original transaction. If the stock cannot be delivered without money being credited to pay for it, this is called ‘Delivery Versus Payment’ (DVP) and is the ideal. Usually settlements are ‘rolling settlements’, for example, rolling 3 working day settlement. This means that a deal on Monday must be settled on Thursday. This is called ‘T+3’, i.e. ‘Trade Date + 3’.

Second markets

It is quite common to have a ‘second market’ for shares that do not fulfill all the requirements for a full official listing. In addition, there may be an active ‘Over the Counter’ (OTC) market, for instance, the huge NASDAQ market in the US.

Stock market analysis

Analysts often need to estimate the ‘fair price’ for a company’s stock. Often, this price is simply how much the market is willing to pay for the stock. There are two rewards for buying a share – dividends and an increase in share price. Both of these depend on profits, so analysts determine how the price per share of comparable companies compares to the profit per share. This relationship of the share price to profit is the Price/Earnings or P/E Ratio. Sometimes analysts look at the P/E for the whole stock market and compare this with historical values to see if the market is overpriced or not.  Analysts also look at earnings per share and use this as a measure of the firm’s performance.

This is a high-level bird’s eye view of stock markets! Next week we tackle the complicated world of foreign exchange and international trading.

 

 

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