Don’t trade when…

… you are emotional.

I read a couple of posts that resonated.

Over at The Next Big Move, Joe Fahmy narrates a story of his friend who got into a big fight with his girlfriend. And wanting the world to collapse around him, shorted the market. He’s now about 15% underwater.

 

You can’t do anything in life (especially trading) if your head is not clear. You can have the greatest strategy in the world, but if your mind is rattled and you’re not mentally tough, you have NO SHOT of succeeding.

 

And over at Off Road Finance, there’s a post on trading when distracted. Did you know that people who consider themselves skilled multi-taskers perform worse on nearly everything, even when they’re not currently multi-tasking?

 

Multitasking at any time hurts your performance all the time.  Whatever you’re doing right now, do that until done (if at all possible) and do only that one thing.  Really try to do it well.  Do this even when the task isn’t trading-related.  Don’t think about trades while driving.  Don’t check your Twitter feed while blogging…  Just do what you’re doing and do it the best you can all the time.  Spend hours of time on problems that deserve it.

 

So unless you can focus and leave emotions out, don’t trade.

Sources:

Don’t Trade If Your Head Is Not Clear
Oh Look, A Shiny Object!

Tata Steel’s $1.6bn writedown

Tata Steel has announced a $1.6bn writedown on its struggling European division. Its European operations has been hit by the 30% fall in steel demand in the Eurozone since the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2007. The company’s 2012 turnover was $26.13 billion, so the write-down is a pretty big deal.

Europe’s steel industry woes are pretty well documented and its main steel trade association had urged a 25% cut in capacity to remain relevant. However, closing steel plants are a challenge as the sector is seen as strategically and symbolically important by politicians.

In December last year, ArcelorMittal wrote down the goodwill in its European businesses by about $4.3 billion and ThyssenKrupp wrote down $4.7 billion of its Americas unit.

Tata Steel is expected to announce its financial results on May 23rd. Is some “spring cleaning” in store as the new Chairman takes over? (ET, FT)

 

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The Money and Bond Markets – Part II

Some markets are domestic (for example transactions in the local currency and under the control of the local central bank) and some are international (for example, a bond denominated in Japanese yen issued in London). There are also money markets, which are short-term (borrowing/lending of money for 1 year or less), and bond markets, which handle longer-term lending.

The Interbank Market

Banks lend money to one another for different periods of time. The deposit rate offered by one bank to another is called the offer rate. Thus, the interbank rates in London are called LIBOR – London Interbank Offer Rate. As London is a huge international market, LIBOR is the most commonly heard of interbank rate. In other wholesale markets, we may hear terms like ‘LIBOR + ¼’, ‘LIBOR + 35 basis points’ etc. The most common maturity period in the interbank market is 3 months.

Money Market Securities

Common money market instruments are –

Treasury Bills – short-term debt instruments issued by governments

Local Authority/Public Utility Bills – also called Munis in the US, issued by local municipalities etc.

Certificates of Deposit – receipts issued by banks for short term deposits by lenders. The advantage to the lender is that the CD can be sold in the secondary market, if they need the money earlier

Commercial Paper – issued by private corporations looking to raise short-term capital

The Bond Market

In some markets the terms bond and note are both used for medium to long-term securities. The US, for instance, has 2, 5 and 10 year Treasury notes and 30 year Treasury bonds.

There are different types of bonds –

Government bonds – These are the most important and often dominate the bond markets. The bonds are typically issued by a central bank or Ministry of Finance and first sold to specialist dealers from where they are sold in secondary markets.

Mortgage and Asset Backed bonds – In some countries, there is a big market for mortgage bonds. In the US, for example, home mortgages are bundled up and used as the backing security for mortgage bonds. The bundle is called Collateralized Mortgages obligations (CMO) or Collateralized Debt securities/obligations (CDS/CDO) .This technique is called securitization of assets and the bonds are called Asset-Backed securities. In theory, securitization can be applied to any stream of income payments.

Corporate bonds –Of course, they are issued by corporates. There are different varieties for example debentures are bond that must be backed by security like land and buildings. Convertibles are bonds that can be converted at a later point (if so chosen) into equity.

Foreign bonds – These are domestic issues by non-residents – ‘bulldogs’ in the UK, ‘yankees’ in the US, ‘matadors’ in Spain, ‘samurai’ in Tokyo and ‘kangaroo’ bonds in Australia! The bonds are domestic bonds in the local currency, only the issuer is foreign. This is different from international or Eurobonds which are binds issued outside their original -country. For example if a non-US firm seeks dollar funding, they can issue bonds in London as Eurobonds or in the US as ‘yankee’ bonds.

Stay tuned for more next week!

 

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Introducing BPS: Bill Payment at Source

A committee in the RBI has circulated a paper on a wonderful new idea of an Indian Bill Payment System through Government Internal Revenue Order system, i.e., IBPS-GIRO

Imagine a brave new world where you will pay every bill through IRCTC. IBPS-GIRO will be just like that, only better – because you can avoid travelling by trains, but how far will you go without paying your electricity bill?

May I be bold as to suggest a better idea? BPS: Bill Payment at Source. Instead of you first getting your salary and then logging onto IBPS-GIRO, and then paying your bill, the RBI should direct all utility providers to submit your bills directly to your employer who will automatically deduct the amount at source. This way, it will be one more hassle that the government will free you from.

In fact, the RBI can go two steps further and directly deposit the remaining amount, if you have any, into the National Pension Scheme (NPS.) After all, what is left after income tax, utility bills, EMI and saving for retirement?

Read the whole thing here: Report of the Committee to Study the Feasibility of Implementation of Giro Based Payment System in India They even have a logo mocked-up.

 

Behavioral Biases and Investment Decisions

Investopedia has an interesting article on the different biases that investors have. We can all empathize at some level with these:

  1. Overconfidence – in both the information that we have and on our ability to time the market with that information.
  2. Not taking losses, aka, reducing regret.
  3. Making the most satisfactory decision instead of the most efficient decision.
  4. Chasing trends

The best way to avoid the pitfalls of human emotion is to have trading rules. Or use algorithms like we do to make those decisions for you.

Read the whole thing: 4 Behavioral Biases And How To Avoid Them

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