Category: Your Money

Introduction To Stock Exchanges

History of the Stock Exchange

The oldest trading companies were either owned by individuals or were family partnerships. In 1553, a British explorer set up an enterprise to find a North East trade route to China and the Orient. 250 merchants put up 25 pounds each to equip 3 ships for the voyage, thus sharing the cost and any eventual profits. This was the birth of the first modern shareholding enterprise, a ‘joint stock company’ called the ‘Muscovy Company’. The famous East India Company was formed in 1600 and was dominant in trading up to about 1850. The importance of the Dutch empire led to the formation of the United East India Company of the Netherlands in 1602 and the Dutch West India Company in 1621.

Thus, trading began in these companies. Europe’s oldest stock exchange was opened in Amsterdam in 1611. In London, brokers and jobbers (as they were called) met in coffee houses. To regulate the market, New Jonathan’s Coffee House was converted into the ‘Stock Exchange’ in 1773. In 1850, the US had about 250 functioning stock exchanges. However, by 1900, New York was totally dominant due to the introduction of the telegraph and ticker-tape.

The role of the Stock Exchange

Stock Exchanges are important as they provide the regulation of company listings, a price formation mechanism, the supervision of trading, authorization of members, settlement of transactions and publication of trade data and prices. However, the role of the stock exchange is becoming hazy as many listing rules are made by government bodies (like the SEC in the US), settlement is being taken over by separate settlement entities and more and more computerized matching systems outside exchanges are capturing business.

Some of the world’s largest exchanges are – the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the London Stock Exchange, Tokyo and the NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations). Technically, NASDAQ never had an exchange as such and only deal on computer screens. Their shares are actually ‘over the counter’ (OTC) but the companies are much larger than one usually finds with OTC trading. The market value of a stock exchange is the number of shares in existence multiplied by the share price of each. This is also called ‘capitalization’. Share prices go up and down all the time and the capitalization is only that at the moment when calculation is done.

International Equity

Nowadays, it has become common for multinational companies to seek a listing on several foreign stock exchanges. This may be to attract a wider investor market or because the local market is a little small for the ambitions of the company. The result has been a large expansion in primary market issues and secondary market trading in non-domestic equities. Large new equities are now offered on an international basis and similarly, US mutual funds and pension funds have gradually become less parochial and are investing more abroad.

Indices

Share indices are usually based on market capitalization. If the index is of the top 50 companies, say, then ‘top’ means biggest by market capitalization. Sometimes the index is described as ‘weighted’. This simply means that a 1% change in the price of the largest company in the index will have more impact that a 1% change in the price of the smallest. Since the share price is always changing, the ‘top’ shares are not always the same. There is provision for removing some shares and adding others, for example, every quarter.

Modern indices are based on taking the number of shares and multiplying by the price. This gives proper weight to the companies worth the largest capitalization. For example, Standard and Poor’s S&P 500 is an index based on market capitalization. The Dow Jones industrial average, which tracks 30 companies, simply averages the share price using a method known as the ‘constant divisor’. The Dow used to be calculated hourly but is now done every minute.

Stay tuned for next week where I discuss equity markets!

 

[stockquote]SHALPAINTS[/stockquote]

National Food Security Bill: Making India Poor

The National Food Security Bill (NFSB) led to an uproar in the Lok Sabha when it was tabled on May 6. True, it doesn’t take much for our esteemed parliamentary members to get agitated but this time, they have a point. With NREGA and similar “empower the poor” schemes failing to deliver owing to rampant corruption, is another scheme really required? Worse, if the NFSB is passed, India’s fiscal deficit will get worse, a fact that’s already impacting India’s allure as an investment destination.

Opposition parties believe that the NFSB is a smokescreen for UPA to divert attention from the corruption charges levied at the party. They also claim it’s a move to gratify voters as the 2014 elections come close. Whether that’s true or not, the NFSB has holes that make it flawed from the start.

Food Security Bill

First, the NFSB is not new. It’s been dug out of its grave by the UPA government after a spell of 4 years. It was passed by the Cabinet in March 2013 but faced flak from opposition in the Lok Sabha.

If the NFSB is passed, India’s poor amounting to 800 million people (two thirds of the country’s population) will have the legal right to receive 5 kilograms of food grain per person at fixed rates of ₹3 (rice), ₹2 (wheat) and ₹1 (coarse grains) per kilogram. Meanwhile, the Antodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) meant to protect 2.43 crore poorest of poor families will continue with the supply of 35 kg food grains per month per family.

Economic implications of National Food Security Bill

NFSB has not received a favorable response from any quarter – media, corporate, or business. That’s not over a disinclination to help the poor but over the practicality of implementing a scheme that relies on the same flawed infrastructure that has stalled previous schemes.

Secondly, the NFSB was proposed at a time when India’s growth rate was almost 9%. Today it’s struggling to touch the 5.2% mark promised by finance minister, P Chidambaram. If it falls any lower, India’s status in the investment market would be rated “junk.” For 2013-14, the food security bill will cost the exchequer Rs. 1,24,502 crore, an extra expenditure of Rs. 44,711 crore after deducting existing food subsidies and adding infrastructure, transportation and other costs allied to the NFSB. NREGA’s annual cost is only a little less.

Thirdly, the government’s involvement via NFSB could drastically raise the amount of food grain procured from the market, leading to distortion of agriculture prices. The Bill will add to the total subsidy burden that’s already about 2.4% of the GDP. Chidambaram hopes to cut the fiscal deficit to under 4.8% of GDP in 2013-14 from around 5% in 2012-13. NFSB will certainly not help.

fiscal deficit percentage GDP India

Can India afford to decelerate its growth rate any further? As S.A. Aiyer’s calculated in his 2009 paper Socialism Kills: The Human Cost of Delayed Economic Reform in India, India has already failed to prevent 14.5 million infant mortalities, produce 261 million literates and empower 109 million poor because of delayed economic reform. The need of the hour is not NFSB but reform that drives growth – the only factor that effectively helps move above the poverty line.

A scheme to feed the poor does not address the core problem. It will only end up making greedy middlemen, politicians and bureaucrats richer. The UPA knows this too. Then why focus on a scheme rather than the root cause of implementation failure? Why not focus on preventing stored food from going to rot? Why not optimize distribution channels to bring what is already available to the poor instead of creating new administrative burdens? Without fundamental changes at the ground level, NFSB is doomed.

 

 

Don’t trade when…

… you are emotional.

I read a couple of posts that resonated.

Over at The Next Big Move, Joe Fahmy narrates a story of his friend who got into a big fight with his girlfriend. And wanting the world to collapse around him, shorted the market. He’s now about 15% underwater.

 

You can’t do anything in life (especially trading) if your head is not clear. You can have the greatest strategy in the world, but if your mind is rattled and you’re not mentally tough, you have NO SHOT of succeeding.

 

And over at Off Road Finance, there’s a post on trading when distracted. Did you know that people who consider themselves skilled multi-taskers perform worse on nearly everything, even when they’re not currently multi-tasking?

 

Multitasking at any time hurts your performance all the time.  Whatever you’re doing right now, do that until done (if at all possible) and do only that one thing.  Really try to do it well.  Do this even when the task isn’t trading-related.  Don’t think about trades while driving.  Don’t check your Twitter feed while blogging…  Just do what you’re doing and do it the best you can all the time.  Spend hours of time on problems that deserve it.

 

So unless you can focus and leave emotions out, don’t trade.

Sources:

Don’t Trade If Your Head Is Not Clear
Oh Look, A Shiny Object!

Tata Steel’s $1.6bn writedown

Tata Steel has announced a $1.6bn writedown on its struggling European division. Its European operations has been hit by the 30% fall in steel demand in the Eurozone since the emergence of the global financial crisis in 2007. The company’s 2012 turnover was $26.13 billion, so the write-down is a pretty big deal.

Europe’s steel industry woes are pretty well documented and its main steel trade association had urged a 25% cut in capacity to remain relevant. However, closing steel plants are a challenge as the sector is seen as strategically and symbolically important by politicians.

In December last year, ArcelorMittal wrote down the goodwill in its European businesses by about $4.3 billion and ThyssenKrupp wrote down $4.7 billion of its Americas unit.

Tata Steel is expected to announce its financial results on May 23rd. Is some “spring cleaning” in store as the new Chairman takes over? (ET, FT)

 

[stockquote]TATASTEEL[/stockquote]

The Money and Bond Markets – Part II

Some markets are domestic (for example transactions in the local currency and under the control of the local central bank) and some are international (for example, a bond denominated in Japanese yen issued in London). There are also money markets, which are short-term (borrowing/lending of money for 1 year or less), and bond markets, which handle longer-term lending.

The Interbank Market

Banks lend money to one another for different periods of time. The deposit rate offered by one bank to another is called the offer rate. Thus, the interbank rates in London are called LIBOR – London Interbank Offer Rate. As London is a huge international market, LIBOR is the most commonly heard of interbank rate. In other wholesale markets, we may hear terms like ‘LIBOR + ¼’, ‘LIBOR + 35 basis points’ etc. The most common maturity period in the interbank market is 3 months.

Money Market Securities

Common money market instruments are –

Treasury Bills – short-term debt instruments issued by governments

Local Authority/Public Utility Bills – also called Munis in the US, issued by local municipalities etc.

Certificates of Deposit – receipts issued by banks for short term deposits by lenders. The advantage to the lender is that the CD can be sold in the secondary market, if they need the money earlier

Commercial Paper – issued by private corporations looking to raise short-term capital

The Bond Market

In some markets the terms bond and note are both used for medium to long-term securities. The US, for instance, has 2, 5 and 10 year Treasury notes and 30 year Treasury bonds.

There are different types of bonds –

Government bonds – These are the most important and often dominate the bond markets. The bonds are typically issued by a central bank or Ministry of Finance and first sold to specialist dealers from where they are sold in secondary markets.

Mortgage and Asset Backed bonds – In some countries, there is a big market for mortgage bonds. In the US, for example, home mortgages are bundled up and used as the backing security for mortgage bonds. The bundle is called Collateralized Mortgages obligations (CMO) or Collateralized Debt securities/obligations (CDS/CDO) .This technique is called securitization of assets and the bonds are called Asset-Backed securities. In theory, securitization can be applied to any stream of income payments.

Corporate bonds –Of course, they are issued by corporates. There are different varieties for example debentures are bond that must be backed by security like land and buildings. Convertibles are bonds that can be converted at a later point (if so chosen) into equity.

Foreign bonds – These are domestic issues by non-residents – ‘bulldogs’ in the UK, ‘yankees’ in the US, ‘matadors’ in Spain, ‘samurai’ in Tokyo and ‘kangaroo’ bonds in Australia! The bonds are domestic bonds in the local currency, only the issuer is foreign. This is different from international or Eurobonds which are binds issued outside their original -country. For example if a non-US firm seeks dollar funding, they can issue bonds in London as Eurobonds or in the US as ‘yankee’ bonds.

Stay tuned for more next week!

 

[stockquote]SHALPAINTS[/stockquote]