Author: shyam

Monthly Recap: April in Paris

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.02%
CAC(FRA) +2.83%
UKX(GBR) -1.62%
NKY(JPN) +1.98%
SPX(USA) +0.82%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.10%
INMEX(MEX) +1.49%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.98%
XU030(TUR) +7.02%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.01%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.11%
NIFTY(IND) +1.42%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.04%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.22%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.74%
Ethanol -2.63%
WTI Crude Oil -2.99%
RBOB Gasoline -9.46%
Heating Oil -4.41%
Natural Gas +2.79%
Metals
Platinum -0.92%
Copper -2.26%
Silver 5000oz -5.52%
Palladium +3.04%
Gold 100oz +1.11%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.89% USDJPY:+0.36%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.55%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.51%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.36%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) -0.93%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.21%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.66%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -10.25%
Feeder Cattle +11.81%
Lumber -0.68%
Sugar #11 -4.27%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.52%
Soybean Meal +1.17%
White Sugar -4.05%
Cattle +3.42%
Cotton +3.72%
Lean Hogs +2.18%
Wheat +0.18%
Cocoa -16.04%
Corn -0.75%
Orange Juice +2.10%
Soybeans +0.58%

International ETFs (USD)

Nifty Heatmap

Index Returns


More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance


More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +6.70%
INFRABEES +6.18%
JUNIORBEES +5.37%
BANKBEES +4.10%
PSUBNKBEES +3.35%
NIFTYBEES +1.24%
PSEs… because this time its different.

Yield Curve

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.23 -0.11%
5 10 +0.16 -0.31%
10 15 +0.11 -0.40%
15 20 +0.06 +0.07%
20 30 +0.10 -0.45%
Bonds down in spite of increased FII flows…

Investment Theme Performance

Value themes out-performed momentum…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

Residual Momentum

The conventional way of implementing momentum strategies rank either relative or absolute time series returns of a universe of stocks. If either market beta, value or the small-cap premium had a big hand in driving equity returns during the formation period, then the momentum portfolio will be overweight those factors. This leads to steep momentum crashes, or so the theory goes.

In their paper on Residual Momentum, Blitz, Huij and Martens propose ranking stocks based on the residuals obtained after fitting their return series to the Fama-French Three factor model. They argue that a portfolio created this way outperforms vanilla momentum strategies.

We have created an automated residual momentum strategy, Momo (Residual) v1.0, that implements the residual momentum strategy outlined in the paper.

Monthly Recap: March Madness

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.04%
CAC(FRA) +5.43%
UKX(GBR) +0.82%
NKY(JPN) -1.10%
SPX(USA) -0.05%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.37%
INMEX(MEX) +3.82%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.74%
XU030(TUR) +1.50%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.52%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.59%
NIFTY(IND) +3.31%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.96%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.35%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +15.44%
Ethanol +4.17%
RBOB Gasoline +14.79%
Brent Crude Oil -3.29%
Heating Oil -1.73%
WTI Crude Oil -4.69%
Metals
Copper -2.21%
Gold 100oz -0.60%
Palladium +3.44%
Platinum -7.47%
Silver 5000oz -1.63%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.42% USDJPY:-0.52%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.12%
USDMXN(MEX) -6.66%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.30%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.37%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.29%
USDINR(IND) -2.76%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.70%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.30%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -0.64%
Feeder Cattle +6.74%
White Sugar -10.37%
Cattle -5.08%
Cocoa +9.22%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.95%
Lean Hogs -3.74%
Orange Juice -6.15%
Soybean Meal -8.00%
Corn -2.08%
Cotton +3.13%
Lumber +2.24%
Sugar #11 -12.42%
Wheat -0.12%
Soybeans -8.83%

Nifty Heatmap

Index Returns


More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance


More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +7.19%
BANKBEES +4.08%
NIFTYBEES +3.49%
JUNIORBEES +2.44%
INFRABEES +2.12%
CPSEETF +0.28%
GOLDBEES -3.30%
Can we just rename PSUBNKBEES and BADBNKBEES and be done with it?

Yield Curve

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.70%
5 10 -0.12 +1.54%
10 15 -0.16 +1.48%
15 20 -0.09 +1.55%
20 30 -0.10 +1.81%
Long bonds FTW!!!

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum, value… everything worked!

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional Flows

So hot right now…

Are stocks an inflation hedge?

Is there a relationship between inflation and stock returns in India? A recent study that looked at monthly data between 1994 and 2014 shows that there is no significant pro-cyclical inter-dependency between inflation and stock returns.

However, the paper does not present the results of any statistical significance tests. This leaves the reader at the mercy of trying to interpret pretty pictures of wavelet transforms.

On the Dynamics of Inflation-Stock Returns in India