Author: shyam

Sell in December and go away?

Seasonality affects stocks. It’s a fact that a number of pundits have tried to answer the ‘why?’ and the ‘how?’ of it. But first, lets look at the numbers in this handy chart:

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Now carefully look at December and January. Its almost a guaranty that the market melts up in December and goes down in January.

If you are in the market, enjoy the rally till Christmas and get out! If you are not getting paid to be a hero, then why try to be a superman?

In fact, it looks like you can stay out of the market till April, or maybe comeback only in July? Something to think about…

As to the “why” and the “how”? Well, the US markets enjoy a Santa Claus rally (most of the time) and it does have affect other markets. Also, portfolio managers looking to do some window dressing might be tempted to play high-beta emerging market stocks, so India might be benefiting from that. But who cares? With the global market teetering on the European experiment gone bad, why take changes? Book profits instead!

“I told you so”

“So although we didn’t join the euro…and, frankly, it’s showing to be a bit of a mess, the break-up of it would be very bad for Britain. So I spend a lot of my time putting pressure on other European leaders to come up with a solution that will actually make sure that there is stability and growth in Europe,” – U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron. (WSJ)

Urbanization is a Good Thing

Peepli Live

Image via Wikipedia

I watched this movie called Peepli Live, produced by Amir Khan. The story revolves around an indebted farmer who, facing a large debt, contemplates suicide. Its an interesting movie. However, right at the end, there’s commentary as to how millions of low-income farmers are being forced to forgo their (small) land-holdings and migrate to the city. Here’s the thing: I don’t see it as a bad thing that needs to be reversed. Rather, the role of the government and society should be to ease the transition.

Urbanization allows efficient allocation of public services. It is easier to serve a city with 10 schools rather than 10 small villages with 1 school. The problem is that by portraying urbanization as bad, subsistence farming as good we are trying to swim against the tide and misallocating capital (like the insanely evil NREGA.) We would be better off focusing on easing the transition that is already taking place by focusing on city planning.

Subsistence farming was never a good idea. Lack of scale and under-capitalization implies that millions of farmers in India lead a hand-to-mouth existence. We should be focusing on providing better options for livelihood generation rather than putting poverty on the pedestal and trying to wish the problem away.

Urbanization is a good thing and it is going to continue being a predominant trend of our times. Deal with it.

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: Ch 6

This is a review of the 6th chapter of John J. Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

Continuation Patterns

Continuation patterns are shorter terms patterns that indicate that a current price action is nothing more than a pause in an existing trend and that the previous trend will resume later.

Triangle

There are three types of triangles:

  1. Symmetrical (coil): Formed out of two trendlines where the upper one descending and the lower line ascending.
  2. Ascending: Formed out of a rising lower line and a flat upper line.
  3. Descending: Formed out of a flat lower line and a descending upper line

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The Broadening Formation (Megaphone Top)

imageIt looks like a triangle turned backwards and represents an out-of-control market. Volume tends to increase along with the wider price swings.

 

 

 

 

Flags and Pennants

Flags and Pennants represent brief pauses in a one-directional market and they need to be preceded by sharp, straight line moves.

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A flag should slope against the trend and volume should dry up during the formation and build again during the breakout. The flag usually forms during the mid-point of the move.

A Pennant represents a small symmetrical triangle. imageVolume should be light during its formation. The move after the pennant should duplicate the move before its formation.

Both patterns are short-term and should be completed within 1-3 weeks with volumes drying up during their formation.

The Wedge

The wedge formation is very similar to a symmetrical triangle, except that it has a prominent slant. A falling wedge is considered bullish whereas a rising wedge is considered bearish.

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The Rectangle (Trading Range)

It usually just represents a consolidation area after which the previous trend resumes. A decisive close outside the upper/lower boundary signals a completion.

The Measured Move (Swing)image

It describes the movement of a stock when a major advance or decline is divided into two equal and parallel moves. The moves should be fairly orderly and well defined.

 

 

The Continuation Head & Shoulders

The price action looks similar to a Rectangular pattern except that the middle trough, in an uptrend, tends to be lower than the other two shoulders. In a downtrend, the middle peak exceeds the other two peaks.

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Next: Chapter 7 – Volume & Open Interest