Author: shyam

The StockViz API

The StockViz API is available on Mashape. We hope that programmers who want to get involved in quantitative trading/investing can make use of our API and build exciting models and strategies.

Why Mashape?

Rather than provide our own infrastructure for our APIs, we decided to host it on Mashape. Here are some the reasons why:

  1. You, as a programmer can “pipe” StockViz data through other APIs on Mashape – you can, for example, pipe our News API through a sentiment analysis API, or use an SMS API to send out alerts.
  2. You get a ready-made, transparent way of tracking your usage – metering for free.
  3. Your personal information is well protected – Mashape has been in this business for a while and have protection in place.
  4. Mashape comes with an issue tracker – you can post all of your problems/solutions/hacks/requests and get them answered in one place.
  5. You can consume the API in any programming language you like (there are 7 supported right out the gates.)

Why provide an API?

Increasingly, our users have been demanding increasing levels of customization. For instance, an alert whenever NIFTYBEES has a Golden Cross, and an alert based on option greeks have been our longest standing requests. Now, with a bit of computer savvy, you can build you own set of alerts to help guide your investing process.

Pricing

We have a “freemium” pricing model. Most users would be happy within the free tier. As your usage grows, you will be billed directly by Mashape.

Getting Started

  1. Register yourself on Mashape.
  2. Link your Mashape and StockViz accounts.
  3. Follow posts on our API section for tutorials, etc.
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Indian Banks: What Next?

In a recent research report titled “India: No ‘banking’ on growth”, Goldman Sachs has some interesting analysis on Indian banks.

The borrowing spree of the previous few years is increasingly causing strains on banks’ balance sheets.

India corporate leverage

A sharp increase in stressed assets is a big overhang for the banking system and Indian banks’ Gross NPLs are the highest in the region. However, provisions for stressed assets are still low, and the lowest in the region.

indian stressed assets

The infrastructure sector contributes about 30% of total stressed assets, even though its share in total loans is only about 15%. Also, their research suggests that a 1% increase in real GDP growth will increase credit growth by 1.7%. So there could be significant positive spillover effects if clogged investment projects come on stream.

feedback loop

Basically, once GDP growth starts picking up, it will unclog the banking system. And the key to kick starting growth is to see the already-sanctioned projects through by removing bottlenecks.

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Weekly Recap: something else is going to happen

Nifty weekly performance heatmap

The Nifty ended the week -0.24% (-0.18% in USD terms)

Index Performance

Saved by IT…

Index weekly performance

Top Winners and Losers

INDHOTEL +5.27%
HCLTECH +6.95%
TATAMOTORS +7.94%
CIPLA -10.48%
AMBUJACEM -7.18%
HINDALCO -6.11%
HCL Tech – the gift that keeps on giving?

ETFs

GOLDBEES +1.27%
BANKBEES -0.22%
NIFTYBEES -0.43%
INFRABEES -1.13%
PSUBNKBEES -2.32%
JUNIORBEES -2.43%
PSU Banks and Infrastructure are turning out to be the most hated sectors so far this year…

Advancers and Decliners

advancers and decliners

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum 200 +3.33%
IT 3rd Benchers +2.92%
Consistent10* +1.52%
Velocity* +0.90%
Long Term Equity* +0.84%
Growth with Moat +0.27%
Efficient Growth -0.12%
Balance-sheet Strength -0.41%
ADAG Mania -0.88%
Quality to Price -1.30%
Market Elephants -1.51%
Financial Strength Value -2.28%
Magic Formula Investing -2.49%
Market Fliers -2.50%
Enterprise Yield -2.65%
High beta continues to get crushed – will the real Modi rally please stand up?

Sector Performance

weekly sector performance

Yield curve

yield curve

Thought for the weekend

via Barry Ritholtz:

2014-Research

Analysts have been uniformly bearish on bonds and bearish on emerging market equities. To quote Rule No. 9 from Bob Farrell: “When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.”

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Weekly Recap: Less is More

nifty weekly heatmap

The Nifty ended the week –0.43% (-0.17% in USD terms.)

Index Performance

IT corrected and pharma was boosted by expectation-beating earnings…

weekly index performance

Top Winners and losers

NTPC +7.51%
TATASTEEL +7.98%
COALINDIA +8.95%
BHEL -9.84%
ADANIENT -5.51%
SRTRANSFIN -5.41%
BHEL took a tumble. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the company, it did. But what a move in the metal stocks!

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +0.79%
GOLDBEES +0.34%
NIFTYBEES -0.19%
BANKBEES -0.58%
PSUBNKBEES -1.28%
INFRABEES -1.71%
Infrastructure continues to be in disfavor. Mid-caps saw a bit of a lift towards the end of the week.

Advancers and Decliners

If you stare hard enough, you can see the brown shoots:

advancers and decliners

Investment Theme Performance

Quality to Price +4.68%
Financial Strength Value +3.54%
Long Term Equity* +2.99%
Balance-sheet Strength +2.50%
Enterprise Yield +1.32%
Velocity* +0.94%
Market Elephants +0.44%
Efficient Growth +0.35%
Market Fliers -0.05%
Growth with Moat -0.19%
Consistent10* -0.24%
Momentum 200 -0.40%
Magic Formula Investing -1.97%
IT 3rd Benchers -2.33%
ADAG Mania -2.39%
This Quality-to-price theme has had an unbelievable ride so far. Time to rebalance.

Sector Performance

weekly sector performance

Thought for the weekend

Brief diagnostic interviews, lasting only five minutes each, were held with a series of patients at the time of their admission to hospital and then presented to groups of experienced psychiatrists who were required to make a diagnosis. The content of the interview was presented in three alternative ways — as a videotape, as an audiotape, or as a written transcript. It turned out that an accurate diagnosis could be made within the first few minutes of an interview and behavioural cues seem to be of little or no importance in this regard, irrespective of the medium (transcript, audio, etc…) i.e. less is more.

 

Source: Do Behavioral Cues Matter?

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Returns on Recurring Deposits

Earlier, we discussed returns on a systematic investment plan (SIP) on an index ETF (To SIP an ETF or Not?) The analysis was incomplete because it did not discuss returns on a similar investment made on a risk-free asset. How would a recurring deposit over the same period of time perform?

To simplify, lets have a look at the overnight rates on our zero-coupon yield curve:

zero coupon yield

We can use these rates as a rough approximation for 1 month risk-free returns. What would returns be if an investor put in a fixed amount every month and re-invested it based on the risk-free yield above?

Since 2011: 9.66%
Since 2012: 10.25%
Since 2013: 11.98%

Compare this to SIP on ETF returns:

Since 2011: 7.40%
Since 2012: 8.58%
Since 2013: 5.33%

Three years worth of data points are too short to draw any conclusions. And unfortunately we don’t have yield curves before 2011, so we’ll take the 1-Month Mumbai Interbank rates as a proxy.

mibor

Recurring Deposit

Start Year (Jan) IRR
2004 7.87%
2005 8.03%
2006 8.18%
2007 8.33%
2008 8.54%
2009 8.90%
2010 9.49%
2011 9.86%
2012 10.13%
2013 11.19%

SIP on the JUNIORBEES ETF

Start Year (Jan) IRR
2004 10.77%
2005 9.48%
2006 8.66%
2007 8.47%
2008 9.81%
2009 8.70%
2010 4.91%
2011 7.40%
2012 8.58%
2013 5.33%

It looks like right up till 2009, the market outperformed the risk-free rate. And then took a turn for the worse and is yet to recover. Better days ahead, hopefully.

Update from Prakash Lekkala:

we will be taxed 30% on fixed deposit returns… so considering that, dollar cost averaging did better than FD, except in 2010 and 2013.

Bond MF’s would have done better since 2010, as you wouldn’t have paid tax after indentation

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