Dr. Brett Steenbarger at Traderfeed:
Source: The Psychology of Quantitative Analysis
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Invest Without Emotions
Dr. Brett Steenbarger at Traderfeed:
Source: The Psychology of Quantitative Analysis
Flash numbers came out yesterday, here’s a roundup.
Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 55.5 in March, the second-highest since January 2013.
The flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index came in at 53.2, only slightly lower than February’s 32-month high of 53.3 and registering expansion for the ninth consecutive month. The periphery is staging a robust-looking recovery.
New export work placed at manufacturers rose for an eighth month running, with China, Spain and the US mentioned as sources of growth.
The Markit Flash France Composite Output Index posted 51.6, up from 47.9 in February. That was the first reading above the 50.0 no-change threshold since last October.
In the manufacturing sector, growth of new work picked up to a solid pace that was the sharpest in 34 months (partly boosted by a faster rise in new export orders).
Eurozone unemployment remains stuck at a record high of 12%. Price measures continue to warn of deflation risk. Input prices – or the prices manufacturers pay for goods – have been dropping while output prices – or the prices they charge for what they sell – are contracting, as they have done for the past two years. (WSJ)
Investors are walking farther along the risk curve, reaching for yield. Debt investors are abandoning normal creditor protections on European leveraged buyout loans. Growing volumes of euro-denominated “covenant light” loans have now aroused the interest of European regulators, who are increasing their monitoring of lenders’ behaviour. (FT)
Germany is seeing its version of a real-estate boom, dubbed betongold or “concrete gold.” “People here don’t want to own property. But they now feel they must because there’s no interest on savings. All you can do is buy real or concrete gold.” (FT)
Source: Markit
@awealthofcs has an interesting article on saving for retirement in which he says:
Most people fail to understand the difference between consumption and investment. And therein lies the problem.
Source: 99 Retirement Problems
The Nifty ended the week -0.17% (+0.60% in USD terms.)
Here’s how the rest of the world markets faired:
MINTs | |
---|---|
JCI(IDN) | -3.66% |
INMEX(MEX) | +6.06% |
NGSEINDX(NGA) | -1.00% |
XU030(TUR) | +2.46% |
BRICS | |
---|---|
IBOV(BRA) | +5.10% |
SHCOMP(CHN) | +2.16% |
NIFTY(IND) | -0.17% |
INDEXCF(RUS) | +5.65% |
TOP40(ZAF) | +0.30% |
PSUBNKBEES | +4.08% |
BANKBEES | +1.88% |
JUNIORBEES | +1.36% |
NIFTYBEES | -0.10% |
GOLDBEES | -2.61% |
Balance-sheet Strength | +4.94% |
Financial Strength Value | +3.66% |
Quality to Price | +2.65% |
Magic Formula Investing | +2.35% |
Growth with Moat | +1.78% |
Consistent10* | +1.73% |
Market Elephants | +1.59% |
Efficient Growth | +0.99% |
Velocity* | +0.78% |
Enterprise Yield | +0.47% |
Market Fliers | +0.23% |
Momentum 200 | +0.16% |
IT 3rd Benchers | -0.14% |
Long Term Equity* | -0.19% |
ADAG Mania | -23.97% |
Kushwant Singh passed away this week. His 10 things to live a life is a stuff of legends:
Source: How To Live & Die
A new piece of academic literature argues that if you are an individual investor trading options on the basis of technical analysis, you have made some very poor decisions. The researchers studied Dutch discount brokerage clients for the period 2000-2006. The key take-away:
That translates to a cost of about 8.5% a year for normal traders, and about 20% a year for high rollers.
We had also linked to studies in the past that looked at specific signals. For example, Adam Grimes ran Fibonacci ratios through the grinder. His conclusion: mathematically it does not make sense for traders to use Fibonacci retracements when trading.
When you put these two studies together, it leaves us with an interesting question: why bother with technical analysis when a) it doesn’t work in the aggregate, and b) one of the most popular charts, Fibonacci ratios, have no statistical basis in fact?
In a recent interview with Josh Brown, technician Greg Harmon had this to say:
In my mind, looking at a chart is a bit like getting a “hall-ticket” pooja done at the Ganesha temple before the exams. You know you have studied hard and done your home-work, but if not-pissing off the Gods costs just Rs.100, you might as well get that done too.
Source: