Author: shyam

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Vega(κ)

Vega(κ) is the sensitivity of an option’s value to underlying volatility(σ). σ is one of the main drivers of change in an option’s value and so κ allows you to quantify this particular risk.

For example, a κ of 1178.50 when the model price is Rs.188.92 and σ is 0.185 implies that if σ rises by 1% to 0.195, then the price will increase to Rs.188.92 + 1178.50/100 = Rs.200.705

  • κ increases as volatility increases
  • κ for a long term option is higher than the κ for a shorter term option with the same strike
  • an at-the-money option will have a greater κ than either an in-the-money option or an out-of-the-money option
  • κ is the same value for calls and puts

Vega in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

κ:

March 2014 NIFTY Vega

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Gamma(γ)

The option’s gamma(γ) is a measure of the rate of change of its delta(δ). δ is dynamic: it changes not only as the underlying stock moves, but as expiration approaches. γ is the Greek that determines the amount of that movement.

  • γ is the amount a theoretical δ will change for a corresponding one-point change in the price of the underlying.
  • γ will be a number anywhere from 0 to 1.00 and is positive when buying options and negative when selling them.
  • Deep-in-the-money or far-out-of-the-money options have lower γ than at-the-money options.
  • As implied volatility decreases, γ of at-the-money calls and puts increases.
  • When implied volatility goes higher, the γ of both in-the-money and out-of-the-money calls and puts will be decreasing.
  • As the time to expiration draws nearer, the γ of at-the-money options increases while the γ of in-the-money and out-of-the-money options decreases.

Gamma in Action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

γ:

March 2014 NIFTY Gamma

Note that the γ value is the same for calls as for puts. Some intuitions:

  1. The δ tells us how many underlying contracts we are long/short.
  2. The γ tells us how fast our “effective” underlying position will change.
  3. So γ shows how volatile an option is relative to movements in the underlying asset.
  4. γ will let you know how large your δ (position risk) changes.

Source:
Option Gamma
Gamma
 

Forensics: NIFTY Options – Delta(δ)

Delta(δ) is a theoretical estimate of how much an option’s premium may change given a 1-point move in the underlying. For an option with a δ of .50, an investor can expect about a 50p move in that option’s premium given a Rs.1 move, up or down, in the underlying.

  • For purchased options owned by an investor, δ is between 0 and 1.00 for calls and 0 and -1.00 for puts.
  • As a call option goes deeper-in-the-money, δ approaches 1.00 on the increased likelihood the option will be in-the-money at expiration.
  • With an increase in implied volatility, δ gravitates toward .50 as more and more strikes are now considered possibilities for winding up in-the-money because of the perceived potential for movement in the underlying.
  • Low implied volatility stocks will tend to have higher δ for the in-the-money options and lower δ for out-of-the-money options.
  • At expiration an option either has a δ of either 0 or 1.00 with no time premium remaining.
  • As expiration nears, in-the-money call δs increase toward 1.00, at-the-money call δs remain around .50 and out-of-the-money call δs fall toward 0 provided other inputs remain constant.

Delta in action: March 2014 NIFTY Options Since Jan

First, lets look at the underlying:

NIFTY

To capture the full move of the NIFTY, you’ll have to look at, at least, a dozen strikes between 5950 and 6900.

δ of calls:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (CE)

δ of puts:

March 2014 NIFTY Delta (PE)
 

Note how δs rip towards 0 or 1 as expiry approaches? Here’s an important intuition: in-the-money options will move more than out-of-the-money options, and short-term options will react more than longer-term options to the same price change in the stock.

Source: Understanding Delta

IPOs Revisited

IPO performance

We had come out with the StockViz 5-day rule for IPOs back in July-2012 which basically stated that “if it [the stock] doesn’t pop within the first 5 days, chances are that it never will.” And subsequent performance of IPOs have validated that rule.

Since August-2012, there have been 53 IPOs, of which only 2 have made any real money for investors over the long-term: JUSTDIAL and REPCOHOME. Here’s how the 5-,10-,20-,50-,100-,200-day average return for IPOs look like, juxtaposed on the NIFTYBEES ETF return:

returns

The IPOs that made money were not slam-dunks either. Here’s a splattering of commentary on Just Dial:

  • Hindu Business Line: Avoid (source)
  • Economic Times: Avoid (source)
  • Aditya Birla Money: Avoid (source)
  • Microsec: Seems unattractive, subscribe for listing gains (source)
  • HDFC Securities: Avoid (source)
  • GEPL Capital: Subscribe (source)
  • VS Fernando: Avoid (source)

There simply isn’t enough information about the company to evaluate whether the stock is a good investment or not at the time of the IPO. However, if you followed the rule, you would have cut your losses and retained the winners.

When it comes to investing in IPOs, remember the StockViz 5-day rule!

[stockquote]JUSTDIAL[/stockquote] [stockquote]REPCOHOME[/stockquote]

Markets 14.04.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-04-14

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.47%
CAC(FRA) -1.08%
UKX(GBR) -1.21%
NKY(JPN) -0.11%
SPX(USA) -0.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.61%
INMEX(MEX) -0.30%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.29%
XU030(TUR) -0.68%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.45%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.41%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.39%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.13%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.57%
Ethanol -1.50%
Heating Oil +0.58%
Natural Gas +0.15%
RBOB Gasoline +0.10%
WTI Crude Oil +0.52%
Metals
Copper +0.36%
Gold 100oz +0.74%
Palladium +0.92%
Platinum +0.30%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.25% USDJPY:-0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.16%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.33%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.40%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.18%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.54%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.03%
USDINR(IND) +0.18%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.25%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.69%
Cocoa +0.81%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.91%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.16%
Corn +0.45%
Cotton +0.97%
Feeder Cattle +0.73%
Lean Hogs +0.50%
Lumber -1.06%
Orange Juice +0.73%
Soybean Meal +0.42%
Soybeans +0.55%
Sugar #11 -1.52%
Wheat +1.48%
White Sugar -2.96%

Must Reads

Conditions are so dry in California that some farmers aren’t even bothering to plant. Will this make India’s food inflation situation worse? (Bloomberg)

Many products are often complex for complexity’s sake, while conflicts of interest abound among financial advisers and insurance brokers. If you really care about people making better financial decisions, focus on making financial products simpler and transparent. (Bloomberg)

Fund managers do not try to maximise their returns. They try to do better than their peers. We do not necessarily need a BMW, until next door has one. People do not necessarily need to maximise their pay – but grow furious if they find they are paid less than a colleague. Rather than do the best for ourselves that we possibly can, many of us instead aim just to do better than the other guy. (FT)

Enjoy! Markets closed for Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti.