Bold Asset Allocation

Keller, Wouter J., Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA) (July 18, 2022, SSRN) builds on PAA, VAA and DAA following the same philosophy. The differences between them and some of the weaknesses of BAA is summarized here.

The author swapped out SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) with QQQ (the NASDAQ 100 ETF) to juice returns. We added the original back into our backtest for completeness. Also, we ran a parallel backtest with SPHB (High-Beta ETF) instead of EEM in the canary assets like before.

The results are just as disappointing as they were before.

As much as you might hate 60/40, at least there is no model risk.


Not to belabor the point but, practically speaking, investors are better off managing drawdowns through asset allocation (hence giving up the upside during booms) or through using simple trend-following to avoid steep drawdowns (hence incurring higher transaction costs due to whipsaws) than trying to construct a Rube Goldberg machine.

Code and charts on github.