Macro Update July 2015

US TREASURIES VS. GILT SPREAD

The spread between 10yr US Treasuries and Indian Gilts remained within a tight range this month.

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Long term US Treasury yields compressed.

ust-yield-curve.2015-06-30

Institutional investments

FIIs were net buyers in July. A welcome relief after June’s selloff.

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-07-31

DIIs joined the bandwagon as well.

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-07-31

Oil

Oil got shellacked.

wti-brent.2011-01-18

Gold

Gold got shellacked too.

gold.usd

Copper

Copper got shellacked three.

copper.usd

US Dollar

Here is the rally in US Dollar charted:

usd_fut_chart

Outlook

The fall in commodity prices should be a huge windfall for the Indian economy. However, the pace of reforms have come below expectations. The Monsoon Session of the parliament has been a disappointing mess. This has resulted in extended valuations in quality stocks. With a US rate-hike expected in September, we may see a bit of a wobble that might prove to be an excellent time to “buy the dip.”