Monthly Recap: The Perfect Investor

world.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.06%
CAC(FRA) +7.76%
UKX(GBR) +2.79%
NKY(JPN) +1.28%
SPX(USA) -3.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.19%
INMEX(MEX) -6.09%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -14.70%
XU030(TUR) +3.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75%
NIFTY(IND) +6.35%
INDEXCF(RUS) +17.98%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.60%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.59%
Brent Crude Oil -6.64%
Ethanol -15.22%
WTI Crude Oil -9.49%
Natural Gas -9.44%
RBOB Gasoline +2.30%
Metals
Copper -10.92%
Gold 100oz +7.99%
Platinum +2.27%
Palladium -3.38%
Silver 5000oz +9.55%

Currencies

USDEUR:+7.28% USDJPY:-1.96%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.55%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.73%
USDINR(IND) -1.86%
USDRUB(RUS) +19.40%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.79%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.55%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.53%
Lumber -2.74%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
White Sugar -2.07%
Soybeans -5.88%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.31%
Corn -7.56%
Feeder Cattle -6.25%
Wheat -14.73%
Cattle -6.55%
Cotton -2.45%
Lean Hogs -17.35%
Orange Juice +0.07%
Sugar #11 +1.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.75%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.52%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.51%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe -7.13%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -36.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.64%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.88%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.87%
We certainly started the party with a bang: Euro QE, Swiss abandon, Rajan rate-cut… Oh my!

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.90% 68/66
2 +2.62% 79/54
3 +0.33% 73/60
4 +2.82% 81/52
5 +4.56% 72/61
6 +3.52% 81/52
7 +7.85% 77/56
8 +5.76% 76/57
9 +5.68% 69/64
10 (mega) +8.38% 69/65
Large caps did good. Midcaps not so much.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDUNILVR +22.69%
DLF +23.65%
ADANIENT +28.99%
M&MFIN -22.56%
PETRONET -13.76%
PNB -13.44%
DLF – looks like the market likes the EMI scheme. M&MFIN and PNB got shellacked because of poor shows at earnings parade. The Adanis continued to entertain…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +7.79%
NIFTYBEES +6.68%
BANKBEES +5.84%
JUNIORBEES +5.46%
GOLDBEES +4.65%
CPSEETF -0.12%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
Had gold found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.33 +0.74%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.92 +0.94%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.18 +1.48%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.14 +1.91%
The long bond was a rock-star.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Is there such a thing as a “perfect” value investor? Bob Goldfarb, chief executive of the legendary Sequoia Fund, was asked by Columbia University professor Louis Lowenstein “to select ten dyed-in-the-wool value investors who all followed the essential edicts of Graham and Dodd.”

Goldfarb came up with nine. For a nine-year period from 2006 through 2014, the average return of the eight funds that survived to the end was 6.70% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 7.99%.

Source: Looking Back at James Montier’s “Perfect” Value Investors