Study reveals why economists suck at making predictions

The ability of forecasters to predict turning points is limited. Forecasts from the official sector, either from national sources or international agencies, are no better at predicting turning points.

So the explanation for why recessions are not forecasted ahead of time lies in three other classes of theories, which are not mutually exclusive.

One class says that forecasters do not have enough information to reliably call a recession. Economic models are not reliable enough to predict recessions, or recessions occur because of shocks (e.g. political crises) that are difficult to anticipate.
A second class of theories says that forecasters do not have the incentive to predict a recession, which – though not a tail – event are still relatively rare. Included in this class are explanations that rely on asymmetric loss functions: there may be greater loss – reputational and other kinds – for incorrectly calling a recession than benefits from correctly calling one.
The third class stresses behavioural reasons for why forecasters hold on to their priors and only revise them slowly and insufficiently in response to incoming information.

A more than a healthy dose of skepticism is always warranted when dealing with these so called “expert forecasts.”

Source: “There will be growth in the spring”: How well do economists predict turning points?