Is the RBI going to surprise the market with a rate hike when it meets on July 30th? If past is prelude, then the RBI, having to deal with a lame-duck government, might just pull the trigger on this one. Consider what it did during the Asian currency crisis back in 1997/98 (courtesy Barclays):
If FII inflows don’t hold up, then they might just do this. Interesting times…
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