In the post Mixture model over S&P 500 returns, we looked at how mixture models can be used to classify returns as belonging to “bull” or “bear” regimes. Unfortunately, we found that using it to trade the index itself was a losing proposition. This lead us to ask ourselves whether a mixture model was any better than a simple moving average based classifier.
Daily returns
If we split returns that occur over different moving averages (50-, 100-, 200-days) and plot their densities, we can see how losses are more frequent when the index is trading below some moving average:
Avoiding being long the index when it is trading below a moving average seems to be a good idea. And a quick back-test shows the 200-day average is the one to watch:
All the moving-average “systems” above out-performed the mixture-model based system.
Take-away
Simple beats complex, most of the time.
Code and charts are on github.
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