Opening Bell 31.07.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-07-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.40%
CAC(FRA) +0.58%
UKX(GBR) +0.57%
NKY(JPN) +0.01%
SPX(USA) +0.00%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.80%
INMEX(MEX) -0.25%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.25%
XU030(TUR) +0.28%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.69%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.42%
NIFTY(IND) +0.56%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.89%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.42%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +0.36%
Ethanol +0.00%
RBOB Gasoline +0.01%
WTI Crude Oil -0.70%
Brent Crude Oil -0.49%
Heating Oil -0.08%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Palladium -0.41%
Platinum -0.49%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Gold 100oz -0.43%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.12% USDJPY:-0.15%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.22%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.22%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.22%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.21%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.08%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.05%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.33%
Corn +0.74%
Cotton +0.00%
Lumber +0.91%
Orange Juice +0.61%
Soybeans +0.20%
Sugar #11 -1.83%
Wheat +0.50%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.03%
White Sugar +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.30%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.32%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.77%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.07%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.27%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -6.53%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.04%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.26%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.26%
TGIF!!!

Must reads

Bill Gross: Fed on track for September rate hike. (IN)

We’ll soon find out how deep and wide Enfield’s moat is now that is under attack on two fronts. Meet Harley and Triumph. (MC) EICHERMOT 19,100.00 72.05 (0.38%)

The Gold Bond scheme is likely to have an annual cap of 500 grams per person. Its not like people were lining up in the first place. (HBL) Related: Hallmarking does not guarantee full purity of jewellery. (HBL) GOLDBEES 2,268.20 -39.05 (-1.69%)

After watching eCommerce cos raise dizzying amounts of capital, an old-economy crone says “Me too!” (HBL)

Tourism Minister Mahesh Sharma also has categorically ruled out a stake sale in India Tourism Development Corporation (ITDC). Welcome to the new, same as the old. (MC)

Now that BNP Paribas bought Sharekhan, what will happen to Geojit? (ET) GEOJITBNPP 49.60 -1.40 (-2.75%)

The RBI relaxed rules governing the restructuring and repayment of loans extended by NBFCs. (IE) Related: Raghuram Rajan meets banks, ARCs and PE firms to accelerate bad loan sales. (LiveMint)

Profit growth in Europe is above that of the U.S. for the first time since the financial crisis. (Bloomberg) Related: Investing in European Equities

Good luck and have a nice weekend!

Options Daily 31.07.2015

Summary: Aug NIFTY 8700 calls added 769,075 contracts while 9400 calls shed 5,750. On the Put side of the equation, the 8400 strike added 573,125 while the 6700’s shed 25.

Our trend model indicates a LONG on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

AUG NIFTY OI

AUG NIFTY OI chart

AUG BANKNIFTY OI

AUG BANKNIFTY OI chart

AUG NIFTY Volatility

AUG NIFTY Volatility chart

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

Opening Bell 30.07.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-07-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.34%
CAC(FRA) +0.81%
UKX(GBR) +1.16%
NKY(JPN) +1.36%
SPX(USA) +0.73%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.58%
INMEX(MEX) +0.71%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.34%
XU030(TUR) +0.25%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.30%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.71%
NIFTY(IND) +0.46%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.11%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.81%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.62%
Heating Oil +0.13%
RBOB Gasoline +0.83%
Ethanol -0.13%
Natural Gas +0.38%
WTI Crude Oil +0.29%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.04%
Copper +0.39%
Silver 5000oz +0.12%
Palladium +0.92%
Platinum +0.53%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.08% USDJPY:+0.14%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.11%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.01%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.09%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.09%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.77%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.01%
USDINR(IND) -0.02%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.10%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.20%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Corn +0.00%
Wheat +0.10%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Orange Juice -0.24%
Soybeans +0.13%
White Sugar +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.56%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.25%
Soybean Meal +0.11%
Sugar #11 +2.78%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.40%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.39%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.33%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.06%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.63%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -4.15%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.66%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.30%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.03%
Looks like a RISK ON day…

Must reads

The US Fed may hike rates in September. But Goldman’s CEO thinks that after an initial jolt, investors and markets will recover and move on without major trouble. (WSJ, IN)

Out of touch? In this day and age, Cyrus Mistry came out with a “Vision 2025.” What next? 5-year plan? (FE)

Amazon plans same-day delivery of products in India. (Hindu)

Richard Thaler, a professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, is widely considered one of behavioral finance’s founding fathers. Fuller and Thaler Asset Management was formed in 1993 to exploit behavioral errors in investing. Their funds ended up under-performing their benchmarks. (ETF)

Every valid strategy is going to have some periods of underperformance. Don’t give up on your strategy because of that; you are likely to give up near the point of maximum pain, and miss the great returns in the bull phase of the strategy. (Aleph)

Good luck!

Options Daily 30.07.2015

Summary: Aug NIFTY 8600 calls added 384,725 contracts while 8950 calls shed 25. On the Put side of the equation, the 8300 strike added 666,075 while the 7800’s shed 47,550.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

AUG NIFTY OI

AUG NIFTY OI chart

AUG BANKNIFTY OI

AUG BANKNIFTY OI chart

JUL NIFTY Volatility

JUL NIFTY Volatility chart

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility chart

AUG NIFTY Volatility

AUG NIFTY Volatility chart

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

Opening Bell 29.07.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-07-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.06%
CAC(FRA) +1.01%
UKX(GBR) +0.77%
NKY(JPN) -0.58%
SPX(USA) +1.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.95%
INMEX(MEX) +1.32%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.63%
XU030(TUR) +0.95%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.78%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.42%
NIFTY(IND) -0.29%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.24%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.05%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.32%
WTI Crude Oil -0.27%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.47%
Natural Gas +0.74%
RBOB Gasoline -0.40%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Palladium +0.70%
Platinum +0.14%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Silver 5000oz +0.06%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.18% USDJPY:-0.13%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.07%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.02%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.39%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.21%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.01%
USDINR(IND) -0.40%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.05%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.06%
Agricultural
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.20%
Sugar #11 -0.62%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.67%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +1.33%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.33%
Orange Juice +0.28%
Soybeans +0.18%
Wheat -0.15%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.21%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.28%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.71%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +3.52%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.22%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.28%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +10.58%
Markit iTraxx Japan +1.73%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.49%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.93%
What is the market going to obsess about today?

Must reads

Punjab National Bank, a quarter of whose $4-billion portfolio of steel loans is stressed, is considering taking charge of some companies over the next two years, changing their management and then selling stakes. (BS) So now we have bureaucrats trying to run steel companies. This should end well. (IE)

Channel stuffing going on in 2-wheelers: Motorcycle inventories have risen at dealerships across the country as companies continue to despatch high volumes despite poor demand, helping them show impressive sales at least on paper. (LiveMint)

Emerging-market currencies have slumped to 15-year lows. (FT)

Good luck!