Opening Bell 20.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.81%
CAC(FRA) -0.63%
UKX(GBR) +0.03%
NKY(JPN) -0.72%
SPX(USA) -0.14%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.76%
INMEX(MEX) +0.04%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.88%
XU030(TUR) -1.22%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.38%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.17%
NIFTY(IND) +0.23%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.04%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.47%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.09%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.04%
Natural Gas -0.40%
WTI Crude Oil -0.04%
RBOB Gasoline +0.11%
Metals
Copper -0.13%
Gold 100oz +0.04%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Palladium -0.30%
Platinum -0.54%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.08% USDJPY:-0.11%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.03%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.12%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.41%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.12%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.13%
USDINR(IND) +0.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.19%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.06%
Agricultural
Cocoa +0.00%
Corn +0.44%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Cotton -2.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.31%
Soybeans -0.22%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat +0.24%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.00%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.08%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.04%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.47%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.19%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.15%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +0.60%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.50%
Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 38 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 29 are trading above their 50-day SMA.
Also, there were 3 sigma events over the last 24 hours. Details here.

Must Reads

Exide gets robots to breathe more life into batteries
The first of the project, with technology sourced from East Penn Manufacturing Inc of the US, would be implemented at a 25-acre facility at Haldia in Bengal, where it has an existing plant. After invading the shop floors of automobile makers, robots are entering battery plants as well.

Russian Consumers Still in Shock as They Cut Back on Food and Medicine
With stores from near the Arctic to the foothills of the Caucasus Mountains, Magnit PJSC would be the first to know when the Russian consumer is back. Instead, the nation’s largest supermarket chain has just come across something it’s never seen.

Don’t Try This Crazy Trick on the Economy
Some economists argue that the Federal Reserve should take a highly unconventional approach to ending a long period of below-target inflation: Instead of keeping interest rates low to spur economic activity and push up prices, it should raise rates.

Car sharing leads to reduced car ownership and emissions in cities, study finds
Cars are one of the top contributors to greenhouse gas emissions globally, and cars in cities can be especially heavy with their contributions, owing to traffic and population density.

Brexit Fallout Will Be Contained to the U.K., Bond Yields Suggest
How far the economic ripples of Brexit will expand remains one of the key questions for financial markets in the months ahead. Bond yields suggest the fallout won’t be as far-reaching as initially feared. Yields on sovereign bonds in the U.S.

Ricoh India admits accounting violations, falsification of books
Ricoh India, a subsidiary of Japanese imaging and electronics major Ricoh, has admitted that some of its companies violated accounting principles and are responsible for falsification in the books of accounts.

Income Declaration Scheme rule on old cases clashes with I-T Act
MUMBAI: An anomaly in the Income Declaration Scheme (IDS), a mechanism to disclose hidden assets and come clean can trigger litigation and go against the present law.

Good luck!

Options Daily 20.07.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Jul 8500 calls added 2,55,375 contracts.
  2. Jul 9000 calls shed 2,05,950.
  3. Jul 8500 puts added 5,01,375.
  4. Jul 8200 puts shed 1,62,075.

Our trend model indicates a LONG on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

JUL NIFTY Volatility

JUL NIFTY Volatility chart

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(3,1)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 15.82 15.88 15.93 15.98 16.03
σ 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: BANKINDIA, CANBK, IBREALEST, JINDALSTEL, JPASSOCIAT, ORIENTBANK, PNB, RCOM.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 19.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.04%
CAC(FRA) -0.34%
UKX(GBR) +0.39%
NKY(JPN) +0.47%
SPX(USA) +0.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.48%
INMEX(MEX) +0.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.23%
XU030(TUR) -6.71%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.63%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.52%
NIFTY(IND) -0.38%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.25%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.05%

Commodities

Energy
WTI Crude Oil -0.42%
Brent Crude Oil -0.32%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.07%
Natural Gas +0.55%
RBOB Gasoline +0.06%
Metals
Copper +0.27%
Platinum -0.57%
Silver 5000oz -0.42%
Gold 100oz -0.15%
Palladium -0.50%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.02% USDJPY:-0.24%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.06%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.24%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.81%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.08%
USDINR(IND) -0.01%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.15%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.28%
Agricultural
Cotton +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Corn -1.12%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -1.15%
Soybeans -1.37%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs -100.00%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat -0.81%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 39 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 32 are trading above their 50-day SMA.
Also, there were 4 sigma events over the last 24 hours. Details here.

Must Reads

US exports gas to the Middle East

How much longer can Bangalore’s tech giants hide?
Walk into a coffee shop in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru (formerly and more commonly known as Bangalore) and you’re likely to find it full of young people drawing up business plans or meeting with funders.

NGT’s diesel car order may fall flat
NEW DELHI: National Green Tribunal’s (NGT) order for deregistering diesel cars older than 10 years may turn out be a damp squib in the absence of a scrappage policy for disposing of older vehicles.

Good luck!

Options Daily 19.07.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Jul 8600 calls added 7,70,100 contracts.
  2. Jul 8700 calls shed 1,50,225.
  3. Jul 8600 puts added 3,17,850.
  4. Jul 8100 puts shed 3,22,350.

Our trend model indicates a LONG on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

JUL NIFTY Volatility

JUL NIFTY Volatility chart

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51 17.51
σ 1.98 2.36 2.68 2.96 3.22

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: BANKINDIA, CANBK, IBREALEST, JINDALSTEL, JPASSOCIAT, RCOM.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 18.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.01%
CAC(FRA) -0.30%
UKX(GBR) +0.22%
NKY(JPN) +0.68%
SPX(USA) -0.09%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.03%
INMEX(MEX) +0.57%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.36%
XU030(TUR) +0.18%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.18%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.37%
NIFTY(IND) -0.28%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.08%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.39%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.50%
Heating Oil +0.52%
RBOB Gasoline +0.25%
Natural Gas +1.09%
WTI Crude Oil +0.20%
Ethanol -0.38%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Platinum -0.09%
Silver 5000oz -0.45%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium -0.42%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.28% USDJPY:+0.62%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.44%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.11%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.89%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.85%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.07%
USDINR(IND) +0.11%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.29%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.38%
Agricultural
Corn +1.14%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Cattle -1.47%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Lean Hogs -3.05%
Lumber -1.53%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat +0.71%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Feeder Cattle -1.69%
Soybean Meal -0.03%
Cotton +0.00%
Soybeans -0.09%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.18%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.11%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.93%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -6.18%
Markit iTraxx Australia -3.70%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.80%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +0.84%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.43%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.63%
Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 40 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 33 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Internal audit finds lapses by ex-Jabong executives; transfer of logistics unit Gojavas under lens
NEW DELHI | BENGALURU: A forensic audit commissioned by German ecommerce investor Rocket Internet has unearthed several apparent corporate governance violations by former top executives at its fashion portal Jabong.

An expert on fighting poverty makes the case against a universal basic income
There are plenty of people in Washington, DC, advocating on behalf of corporate industries, or well-endowed universities, or the idiosyncratic interests of wealthy donors. A much smaller number spent their days monomaniacally focused on addressing the needs of the poor.

Regional airlines may get cheaper loans
The government is exploring ways to assist regional airlines in raising loans at cheaper interest rates to import aircraft as a part of the regional connectivity scheme.

Won’t storm in like Vijay Mallya did, and get caught: AirAsia CEO on India growth plans
NEW DELHI: AirAsia group chief Tony Fernandes has said it is hard to do business in India due to protectionist policies and “vested interests”, but his joint venture carrier AirAsia India was here for a long haul.

Airlines to pay huge compensation for flight cancellation or
Cancelling a flight or denying boarding to a flier is going to cost heavily to domestic airlines as the new guidelines by the aviation regulator DGCA provides for massive compensation in such cases.

One of the hottest investment styles might be ‘financially unviable’
Robo-advising is one of the hottest trends in fintech. Over the last five years, hundreds of startups have launched digital platforms that use algorithms to manage investment portfolios — offering low fees and automated, user-friendly experiences.

Active vs Passive Investing – AVC
When you buy a stock in the public markets, that is passive investing. When you buy 10% of that public company in the open market and then seek to obtain board seats, that is active investing.

Why Land and Homes Actually Tend to Be Disappointing Investments
Buy land: They’re not making it anymore. That often repeated adage sounds like good financial advice. But over the long run, it hasn’t been. Despite solid price increases over the last few years, land and homes have actually been disappointing investments. It’s worth considering why.

EPFO may invest up to 12% in equity markets: Dattatreya
Buoyed by strong stock markets, Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya has said the Employees Provident Fund Organisation may invest up to 12% of its investable amount in equities over a period of time.

Bank union threatens to disclose names of 7,000 wilful defaulters
Alleging the Government for shielding wilful corporate loan defaulters of public sector banks (PSBs), the All India Bank Employees’ Association (AIBEA) has threatened to make public the names of 7,000 wilful defaulters on July 19.

Show me how inflation is low: Raghuram Rajan on ‘dialogues’ by critics
MUMBAI: Taking his critics head-on, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has challenged them to show how inflation is “very low” before accusing him of “being behind the curve” in his focus on containing price rise than on growth and debunked such criticism as mere ‘dialogues’.

Good luck!