{"id":2042511,"date":"2016-01-27T20:10:39","date_gmt":"2016-01-27T14:40:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/?p=2042511"},"modified":"2016-07-16T14:13:41","modified_gmt":"2016-07-16T08:43:41","slug":"market-cap-deciles-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2016\/01\/27\/market-cap-deciles-part-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Market-Cap Deciles, Part II"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We had introduced the concept of dividing the universe of stocks by market-cap deciles a while ago (<a href=\"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/2014\/07\/11\/market-cap-deciles\/\" target=\"_blank\">StockViz<\/a>.) Here are some observations.<\/p>\n<h3>Returns<\/h3>\n<p>The last year has been spectacular for small- and mid-cap stocks.<\/p>\n<p>From August-2014 to Now:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-all.png\" alt=\"decile all\" width=\"761\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2042531\" srcset=\"https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-all.png 761w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-all-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-all-500x116.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 761px) 100vw, 761px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For 2015:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2015.png\" alt=\"decile 2015\" width=\"750\" height=\"176\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2042521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2015.png 750w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2015-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2015-500x117.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So far in 2016:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2016-JAN.png\" alt=\"decile 2016-JAN\" width=\"758\" height=\"178\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2042541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2016-JAN.png 758w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2016-JAN-300x70.png 300w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/decile-2016-JAN-500x117.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 758px) 100vw, 758px\" \/><br \/>\n<small>Note: Deciles go from 1 (micro-cap) to 10 (mega-cap)<\/small><\/p>\n<p>In 2015:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>If you had blindly invested in an equal-weight portfolio of ~145 micro-cap stocks, you would have been up ~70%<\/li>\n<li>Every other decile out-performed the mega-caps (decile #1)<\/li>\n<li>Note how the standard-deviation of returns compress as you walk up the cap<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Migrations<\/h3>\n<div class=\"row-fluid\">\n<div class=\"span3\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/migrations-2015.png\" alt=\"migrations 2015\" width=\"121\" height=\"177\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2042551\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"span9\">\nFree-float market-cap is a volatile measure in itself &#8211; when you use that to classify stocks, you end up with quite a bit of movement between deciles. Something to keep in mind while using deciles for analysis.\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Market breadth indicator<\/h3>\n<p>The mega-cap decile (decile #1) can be used as a crude market-timing indicator. If you track the number of stocks in the decile that went up vs. the number that went down, you end up with a proxy for breadth.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty.png\" alt=\"long-short-nifty\" width=\"1000\" height=\"700\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2042561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty.png 1000w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty-300x210.png 300w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty-429x300.png 429w, https:\/\/portalvhds29z8xdrqhczq.blob.core.windows.net\/wordpress\/2016\/01\/long-short-nifty-900x630.png 900w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Even though technically it beat the buy-and-hold NIFTY 50, the indicator produces too many trades and it doesn&#8217;t offer a large enough margin of out-performance to be useful in live trading.<\/p>\n<h3>Next steps<\/h3>\n<p>We will continue to poke around and share what we find!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We had introduced the concept of dividing the universe of stocks by market-cap deciles a while ago (StockViz.) Here are some observations. Returns The last year has been spectacular for small- and mid-cap stocks. From August-2014 to Now: For 2015: So far in 2016: Note: Deciles go from 1 (micro-cap) to 10 (mega-cap) In 2015: &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2035461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3471,9],"tags":[3731,2761],"class_list":["post-2042511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-insight","category-your-money","tag-decile","tag-quant","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2042511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2042511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2042511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2035461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2042511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2042511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2042511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}