{"id":2033051,"date":"2015-09-01T18:47:05","date_gmt":"2015-09-01T13:17:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/?p=2033051"},"modified":"2015-09-01T18:47:06","modified_gmt":"2015-09-01T13:17:06","slug":"monthly-recap-the-unreliable-experts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2015\/09\/01\/monthly-recap-the-unreliable-experts\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Recap: The Unreliable Experts"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"world.2015-07-31.2015-08-31\"<\/p>\n

Equities<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Major<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
DAX(DEU)<\/a><\/td>\n-11.53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CAC(FRA)<\/a><\/td>\n-10.53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UKX(GBR)<\/a><\/td>\n-8.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NKY(JPN)<\/a><\/td>\n-11.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPX(USA)<\/a><\/td>\n-6.44%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
JCI(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n-8.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INMEX(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n-2.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NGSEINDX(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.09%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XU030(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n-7.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
IBOV(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n-8.27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SHCOMP(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n-13.57%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTY(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n-8.82%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INDEXCF(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n+2.53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOP40(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n-6.33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Energy<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Brent Crude Oil<\/td>\n+1.55%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RBOB Gasoline<\/td>\n-20.43%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Heating Oil<\/td>\n+5.31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Natural Gas<\/td>\n-0.11%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WTI Crude Oil<\/td>\n+2.13%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ethanol<\/td>\n-2.80%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Metals<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Copper<\/td>\n-2.53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold 100oz<\/td>\n+3.98%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Platinum<\/td>\n+2.33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver 5000oz<\/td>\n-2.01%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Palladium<\/td>\n-3.68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Currencies<\/h3>\n

USDEUR<\/a>:-2.46% <\/span> USDJPY<\/a>:-3.07% <\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDIDR(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n+4.13%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDMXN(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n+4.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDNGN(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.18%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDTRY(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n+5.21%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDBRL(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n+5.63%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDCNY(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n+2.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDINR(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n+3.39%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDRUB(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n+5.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDZAR(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n+5.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Agricultural<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Coffee (Robusta)<\/td>\n-10.83%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
White Sugar<\/td>\n-3.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coffee (Arabica)<\/td>\n-4.25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cotton<\/td>\n-0.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orange Juice<\/td>\n+5.07%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sugar #11<\/td>\n-3.86%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wheat<\/td>\n-2.76%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cattle<\/td>\n-1.92%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cocoa<\/td>\n-1.60%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Corn<\/td>\n-2.89%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feeder Cattle<\/td>\n-4.25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybeans<\/td>\n-8.96%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lean Hogs<\/td>\n-13.32%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lumber<\/td>\n-7.58%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybean Meal<\/td>\n-9.85%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Credit Indices<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Index<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Markit CDX EM<\/td>\n-1.30%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit CDX NA HY<\/td>\n-1.26%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit CDX NA IG<\/td>\n+8.97%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG<\/td>\n+20.22%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Australia<\/td>\n+10.82%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Europe<\/td>\n+7.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover<\/td>\n+35.71%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Japan<\/td>\n+3.62%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe<\/td>\n+0.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS)<\/td>\n-0.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS)<\/td>\n+3.22%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nAll major indices suffered huge losses. The dollar rallied, commodities fell and investors fled risk-assets.\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Oil<\/h3>\n

\"oil_fut_chart_august_2015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\nWith oil down about 57 per cent from its peak last June, and copper and iron ore down about 50 and 70 per cent respectively from their peaks in early 2011, it has become clear that story was profoundly misleading. Whether or not the supercycle exists, the regular old cycle definitely does, and there is nothing very super about it at all.\n<\/div>\n

Why the commodities super cycle was a myth<\/a><\/p>\n

USDINR<\/h3>\n

\"usd_fut_chart_august_2015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Nifty Heatmap<\/h3>\n

\"CNX<\/a><\/p>\n

Index Returns<\/h3>\n

\"index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-31\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Cap Decile Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Decile<\/th>\nMkt. Cap.<\/th>\nAdv\/Decl<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1 (micro)<\/td>\n-10.15%<\/span><\/td>\n69\/68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n-9.65%<\/span><\/td>\n53\/83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n-11.73%<\/span><\/td>\n45\/92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n-10.91%<\/span><\/td>\n50\/86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n-11.00%<\/span><\/td>\n46\/90<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\n-8.71%<\/span><\/td>\n51\/86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\n-6.63%<\/span><\/td>\n56\/80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\n-5.76%<\/span><\/td>\n57\/80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\n-6.01%<\/span><\/td>\n61\/75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 (mega)<\/td>\n-4.25%<\/span><\/td>\n72\/65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nMidcaps bore the brunt…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Top Winners and Losers<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
LUPIN<\/a><\/td>\n+14.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GLENMARK<\/a><\/td>\n+14.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DIVISLAB<\/a><\/td>\n+20.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VEDL<\/a><\/td>\n-24.26%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HINDALCO<\/a><\/td>\n-23.91%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RELCAPITAL<\/a><\/td>\n-19.41%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nPharma vastly out-performed the cyclicals and commodity players…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

ETF Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
GOLDBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+7.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JUNIORBEES<\/a><\/td>\n-3.41%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTYBEES<\/a><\/td>\n-6.44%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PSUBNKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n-6.53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BANKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n-8.55%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INFRABEES<\/a><\/td>\n-10.30%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CPSEETF<\/a><\/td>\n-12.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nGold caught a safe-haven bid…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Yield Curve<\/h3>\n

\"yieldCurve.2015-07-31.2015-08-31\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bond Indices<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sub Index<\/th>\nChange in YTM<\/th>\nTotal Return(%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
0 5<\/td>\n-0.01<\/span><\/td>\n+0.73%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 10<\/td>\n-0.03<\/span><\/td>\n+0.77%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 15<\/td>\n-0.08<\/span><\/td>\n+1.25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 20<\/td>\n-0.04<\/span><\/td>\n+0.98%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20 30<\/td>\n-0.02<\/span><\/td>\n+0.89%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nYields went down a smidgen…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Investment Theme Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Low Volatility<\/a><\/td>\n+2.16%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Financial Strength Value<\/a><\/td>\n-1.50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Next Trillion<\/a><\/td>\n-1.69%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ASK Life<\/a><\/td>\n-1.79%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PPFAS Long Term Value<\/a><\/td>\n-3.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CNX 100 Enterprise Yield<\/a><\/td>\n-3.35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Magic Formula<\/a><\/td>\n-4.30%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tactical CNX 100<\/a><\/td>\n-4.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Balance Sheet Strength<\/a><\/td>\n-6.86%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
The RBI Restricted List<\/a><\/td>\n-8.80%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Momentum<\/a><\/td>\n-9.28%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quality to Price<\/a><\/td>\n-9.84%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
High Beta<\/a><\/td>\n-10.96%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ADAG stocks<\/a><\/td>\n-16.65%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nThe only strategy that ended in the green was low-vol…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Equity Mutual Funds<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Best<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
BNP Paribas Income and Gold Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.60%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canara Robeco InDiGo Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.60%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Peerless 3 in 1 Fund-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.97%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Regular Income Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
L&T Arbitrage Opportunities Fund – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+0.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HDFC ARBITRAGE FUND WHOLESALE PLAN GROWTH OPTION<\/a><\/td>\n+0.65%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HDFC ARBITRAGE FUND RETAIL PLAN GROWTH OPTION<\/a><\/td>\n+0.64%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Worst<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Sahara Growth Fund-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-9.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mirae Asset Global Commodity Stocks – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-9.66%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HSBC Progressive Themes Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-9.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JM Core 11 Fund – Growth option<\/a><\/td>\n-9.71%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SBI PSU Fund – REGULAR PLAN -Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-10.24%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mirae Asset China Advantage Fund – Regular Plan Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-10.60%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Baroda Pioneer PSU Equity Fund- Plan A – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-10.77%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Bond Mutual Funds<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Best<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
SBI INFLATION INDEXED BOND FUND – REGULAR PLAN – GROWTH<\/a><\/td>\n+2.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DWS Inflation Indexed Bond Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+2.03%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HDFC Inflation Indexed Bond Fund – Regular Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.71%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund – Premium Plus Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.18%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sundaram Flexible Fund -Flexible Income Plan Regular – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.09%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.09%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Income Opportunities Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.07%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Worst<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.61%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Short Term Gilt Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.61%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DWS Premier Bond Fund – Premium Plus Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.61%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Franklin India Banking & PSU Debt Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.57%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canara Robeco Medium Term Opportunities Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.54%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DWS Premier Bond Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pramerica Income Fund – Regular Plan – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+0.47%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

FII and DII Activity<\/h3>\n

\"fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31\"<\/a><\/p>\n

FII’s pulled out more than $2.5bn from the Indian markets. DII’s barely lent any support.<\/p>\n

Thought to sum up the month<\/h3>\n
\nWhat ails the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable, and often dull. The human mind seeks something more amusing, and more caressing.\n<\/div>\n

Source: The Unreliable Experts: getting in the way of outstanding performance<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Equities Major DAX(DEU) -11.53% CAC(FRA) -10.53% UKX(GBR) -8.87% NKY(JPN) -11.75% SPX(USA) -6.44% MINTs JCI(IDN) -8.12% INMEX(MEX) -2.52% NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.09% XU030(TUR) -7.15% BRICS IBOV(BRA) -8.27% SHCOMP(CHN) -13.57% NIFTY(IND) -8.82% INDEXCF(RUS) +2.53% TOP40(ZAF) -6.33% Commodities Energy Brent Crude Oil +1.55% RBOB Gasoline -20.43% Heating Oil +5.31% Natural Gas -0.11% WTI Crude Oil +2.13% Ethanol -2.80% Metals Copper … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2032021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[1881],"class_list":["post-2033051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-your-money","tag-monthly","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2033051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2033051"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2033051\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2032021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2033051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2033051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2033051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}