{"id":2031401,"date":"2015-08-01T13:20:08","date_gmt":"2015-08-01T07:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/?p=2031401"},"modified":"2015-08-01T13:25:45","modified_gmt":"2015-08-01T07:55:45","slug":"monthly-recap-hows-your-macro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2015\/08\/01\/monthly-recap-hows-your-macro\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Recap: How\u2019s your macro?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"world.2015-06-30.2015-07-31\"<\/p>\n

Equities<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Major<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
DAX(DEU)<\/a><\/td>\n+3.33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CAC(FRA)<\/a><\/td>\n+6.10%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UKX(GBR)<\/a><\/td>\n+2.69%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NKY(JPN)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.73%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPX(USA)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.43%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
JCI(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n-2.20%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INMEX(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NGSEINDX(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n-9.79%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XU030(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n-2.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
IBOV(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n-4.21%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SHCOMP(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n-14.34%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTY(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.96%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INDEXCF(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOP40(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Energy<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ethanol<\/td>\n-6.07%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brent Crude Oil<\/td>\n-17.93%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Heating Oil<\/td>\n-16.11%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Natural Gas<\/td>\n-3.76%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RBOB Gasoline<\/td>\n-15.34%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WTI Crude Oil<\/td>\n-21.37%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Metals<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Gold 100oz<\/td>\n-6.50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Copper<\/td>\n-9.92%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Platinum<\/td>\n-8.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver 5000oz<\/td>\n-4.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Palladium<\/td>\n-9.26%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Currencies<\/h3>\n

USDEUR<\/a>:+1.41% <\/span> USDJPY<\/a>:+1.27% <\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDIDR(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDMXN(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n+2.68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDNGN(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.13%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDTRY(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n+3.48%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDBRL(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n+10.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDCNY(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDINR(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.76%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDRUB(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n+11.89%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDZAR(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n+4.18%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Agricultural<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Cocoa<\/td>\n-0.56%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coffee (Arabica)<\/td>\n-3.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lean Hogs<\/td>\n+3.36%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cattle<\/td>\n-0.95%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Corn<\/td>\n-10.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cotton<\/td>\n-2.35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orange Juice<\/td>\n+7.45%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wheat<\/td>\n-18.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
White Sugar<\/td>\n-5.81%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coffee (Robusta)<\/td>\n-13.05%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feeder Cattle<\/td>\n-1.44%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lumber<\/td>\n-12.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybean Meal<\/td>\n-1.42%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybeans<\/td>\n-7.29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sugar #11<\/td>\n-8.91%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Credit Indices<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Index<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Markit CDX EM<\/td>\n+0.28%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit CDX NA HY<\/td>\n-0.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit CDX NA IG<\/td>\n-1.71%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG<\/td>\n-3.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Australia<\/td>\n-2.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Europe<\/td>\n-13.99%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover<\/td>\n-47.76%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx Japan<\/td>\n-5.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe<\/td>\n-2.34%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS)<\/td>\n-0.06%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS)<\/td>\n-4.61%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nIndian midcaps rallied; the bottom fell out of commodities and oil; China was a total shit show. Will the midcap party continue into August?\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Index Returns<\/h3>\n

\"index.performance.2015-06-30.2015-07-31\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Market Cap Decile Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Decile<\/th>\nMkt. Cap.<\/th>\nAdv\/Decl<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1 (micro)<\/td>\n+17.40%<\/span><\/td>\n76\/54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\n+22.15%<\/span><\/td>\n87\/41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\n+33.99%<\/span><\/td>\n97\/33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\n+17.22%<\/span><\/td>\n98\/31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\n+17.19%<\/span><\/td>\n89\/40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\n+12.51%<\/span><\/td>\n85\/45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\n+10.13%<\/span><\/td>\n78\/51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\n+8.94%<\/span><\/td>\n81\/49<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\n+4.99%<\/span><\/td>\n74\/55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 (mega)<\/td>\n+2.06%<\/span><\/td>\n64\/66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nMidcaps and smallcaps put in some impressive numbers…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Top Winners and Losers<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
ABIRLANUVO<\/a><\/td>\n+23.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BANKBARODA<\/a><\/td>\n+23.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HINDPETRO<\/a><\/td>\n+26.40%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VEDL<\/a><\/td>\n-25.21%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TATASTEEL<\/a><\/td>\n-18.94%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NMDC<\/a><\/td>\n-14.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nCommodities were the most-hated sector…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

ETF Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
JUNIORBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+6.42%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PSUBNKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+6.31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BANKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+2.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTYBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+2.43%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INFRABEES<\/a><\/td>\n+1.25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CPSEETF<\/a><\/td>\n-1.48%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GOLDBEES<\/a><\/td>\n-6.20%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nHopefully, a crashing gold will wean us off it?\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Yield Curve<\/h3>\n

\"yield<\/a><\/p>\n

Bond Indices<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sub Index<\/th>\nChange in YTM<\/th>\nTotal Return(%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
0 5<\/td>\n-0.08<\/span><\/td>\n+0.88%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 10<\/td>\n-0.09<\/span><\/td>\n+1.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 15<\/td>\n-0.05<\/span><\/td>\n+1.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 20<\/td>\n-0.10<\/span><\/td>\n+1.57%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20 30<\/td>\n-0.15<\/span><\/td>\n+2.20%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nThe long-end rallied…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Investment Theme Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Quality to Price<\/a><\/td>\n+26.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Magic Formula<\/a><\/td>\n+14.36%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Momentum<\/a><\/td>\n+13.78%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Low Volatility<\/a><\/td>\n+5.71%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ADAG stocks<\/a><\/td>\n+5.68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Balance Sheet Strength<\/a><\/td>\n+5.13%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Next Trillion<\/a><\/td>\n+4.88%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tactical CNX 100<\/a><\/td>\n+4.42%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CNX 100 Enterprise Yield<\/a><\/td>\n+3.69%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ASK Life<\/a><\/td>\n+3.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
High Beta<\/a><\/td>\n+2.58%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
The RBI Restricted List<\/a><\/td>\n+1.11%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Financial Strength Value<\/a><\/td>\n+0.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PPFAS Long Term Value<\/a><\/td>\n-0.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nCongratulations all around…\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Equity Mutual Funds<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Best<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
HSBC Midcap Equity Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+10.68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HSBC Progressive Themes Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+10.17%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reliance Small Cap Fund – Growth Plan – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+9.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sundaram S.M.I.L.E.Fund-iNST Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+9.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sundaram S.M.I.L.E.Fund-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+9.11%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reliance Mid & Small Cap Fund -Growth Plan -Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+8.82%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canara Robeco Emerging Equities – Regular Plan – GROWTH<\/a><\/td>\n+8.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Worst<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Birla Sun Life Commodity Equities Fund – Global Agri Plan – Growth – Regular Plan<\/a><\/td>\n-0.77%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SBI Edge Fund – REGULAR PLAN Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-0.86%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BNP Paribas Income and Gold Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-0.86%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Franklin Asian Equity Fund – Growth Plan<\/a><\/td>\n-4.97%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Principal Global Opportunities Fund-Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-5.23%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mirae Asset China Advantage Fund – Regular Plan Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-8.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mirae Asset Global Commodity Stocks – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n-8.31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Bond Mutual Funds<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Best<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Accrual Plan – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+4.78%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JPMorgan India Corporate Debt Opportunities Fund – Regular Plan – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+1.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IDFC GSF-Provident Fund-Regular Plan-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.67%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IDFC GSF-Provident Fund-Inst Plan B-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.64%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sundaram Flexible Fund -Flexible Income Plan Regular – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.64%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ICICI Prudential Long Term Gilt Fund – Regular Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.61%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IDFC GSF – Investment Plan – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+1.57%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Worst<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pramerica Income Fund – Regular Plan – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+0.92%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IDBI Dynamic Bond Fund Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DWS Premier Bond Fund – Regular Plan-\/-Growth Plan<\/a><\/td>\n+0.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MOSt 10 Year Gilt Fund – Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Edelweiss Gilt Fund – Growth Option<\/a><\/td>\n+0.87%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HDFC Gilt Fund-Short Term-Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DWS Gilt Fund Growth<\/a><\/td>\n+0.73%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Thought to sum up the month<\/h3>\n

Hanging on every twist and turn of the headlines are a group of folks we call \u201cmacro tourists.\u201d They are a terrific source of chatter at any cocktail party \u2014 such as \u201cTsipras may have just doomed the Greeks for the next decade.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why does this matter to investors? For two reasons: First, macro tourists are everywhere; and second, they seem to be terrible stewards of your capital.<\/p>\n

Market-moving headlines would seem to present an opportunity to capi\u00adtal\u00adize on the potential volatility that often follows.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the big risk for investors who try to game the headlines: Figuring out what just happened is hard enough; the macro investor must guess at what\u2019s ahead \u2014 outcomes for the near and far future as well as the market reaction to those outcomes.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no wonder the macro tourists, both professional manager and amateur investor alike, have been for the most part unsuccessful.<\/p>\n

Source: Curse of the Macro Tourist<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Equities Major DAX(DEU) +3.33% CAC(FRA) +6.10% UKX(GBR) +2.69% NKY(JPN) +1.73% SPX(USA) +1.43% MINTs JCI(IDN) -2.20% INMEX(MEX) -0.52% NGSEINDX(NGA) -9.79% XU030(TUR) -2.49% BRICS IBOV(BRA) -4.21% SHCOMP(CHN) -14.34% NIFTY(IND) +1.96% INDEXCF(RUS) +0.87% TOP40(ZAF) +0.90% Commodities Energy Ethanol -6.07% Brent Crude Oil -17.93% Heating Oil -16.11% Natural Gas -3.76% RBOB Gasoline -15.34% WTI Crude Oil -21.37% Metals Gold … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[1881],"class_list":["post-2031401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-your-money","tag-monthly","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2031401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2031401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2031401\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2031401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2031401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2031401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}