{"id":1990561,"date":"2014-05-10T11:24:35","date_gmt":"2014-05-10T05:54:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/?p=1990561"},"modified":"2014-05-10T11:24:35","modified_gmt":"2014-05-10T05:54:35","slug":"weekly-recap-judgement-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2014\/05\/10\/weekly-recap-judgement-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Recap: Judgement Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"

Equities<\/h3>\n

\"world<\/a><\/p>\n

The Nifty rocketed up almost 3% on Friday, ending the week +2.45%<\/strong> (+2.74%<\/strong> in USD terms.)<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Major<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
DAX(DEU)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CAC(FRA)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.43%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UKX(GBR)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NKY(JPN)<\/a><\/td>\n-1.78%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPX(USA)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.06%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
JCI(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.23%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INMEX(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n+1.88%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NGSEINDX(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.05%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XU030(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.41%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
IBOV(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SHCOMP(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTY(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n+2.45%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
INDEXCF(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n+5.10%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOP40(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.62%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Energy<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Brent Crude Oil<\/td>\n-0.68%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ethanol<\/td>\n+0.47%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Heating Oil<\/td>\n-0.50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Natural Gas<\/td>\n-3.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RBOB Gasoline<\/td>\n-1.66%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WTI Crude Oil<\/td>\n+0.27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Metals<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Copper<\/td>\n+0.65%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gold 100oz<\/td>\n-1.05%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Palladium<\/td>\n-1.39%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Platinum<\/td>\n-0.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Silver 5000oz<\/td>\n-2.55%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Currencies<\/h3>\n

USDEUR<\/a>:+0.86% <\/span> USDJPY<\/a>:-0.34% <\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MINTs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDIDR(IDN)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.06%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDMXN(MEX)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDNGN(NGA)<\/a><\/td>\n+0.84%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDTRY(TUR)<\/a><\/td>\n-1.29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BRICS<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
USDBRL(BRA)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.39%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDCNY(CHN)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDINR(IND)<\/a><\/td>\n-0.23%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDRUB(RUS)<\/a><\/td>\n-1.70%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USDZAR(ZAF)<\/a><\/td>\n-1.27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Agricultural<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Cattle<\/td>\n+0.36%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cocoa<\/td>\n-1.99%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coffee (Arabica)<\/td>\n-8.94%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coffee (Robusta)<\/td>\n-3.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Corn<\/td>\n+2.18%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cotton<\/td>\n-1.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feeder Cattle<\/td>\n+0.72%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lean Hogs<\/td>\n-2.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lumber<\/td>\n-1.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Orange Juice<\/td>\n+3.03%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybean Meal<\/td>\n+1.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Soybeans<\/td>\n+1.37%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sugar #11<\/td>\n-1.38%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wheat<\/td>\n+1.20%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
White Sugar<\/td>\n-0.28%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nifty Heatmap<\/h3>\n

\"CNX<\/a><\/p>\n

Index Returns<\/h3>\n

\"index<\/a><\/p>\n

Top winners and losers<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
ICICIBANK<\/a><\/td>\n+10.08%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ADANIPORTS<\/a><\/td>\n+10.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HINDPETRO<\/a><\/td>\n+10.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GLENMARK<\/a><\/td>\n-8.02%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GODREJCP<\/a><\/td>\n-6.41%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UNIONBANK<\/a><\/td>\n-5.16%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nIs Adani Ports finally catching up with Adani Enterprises in the Modi hopium rally?\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

ETFs<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
INFRABEES<\/a><\/td>\n+9.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BANKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+6.90%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PSUBNKBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+6.35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NIFTYBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+3.33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JUNIORBEES<\/a><\/td>\n+1.58%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nBanks are back! Infra is back! Modi will solve everything!\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Investment Theme Performance<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Market Fliers<\/a><\/td>\n+3.49%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Magic Formula Investing<\/a><\/td>\n+3.07%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Enterprise Yield<\/a><\/td>\n+2.88%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quality to Price<\/a><\/td>\n+2.52%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Growth with Moat<\/a><\/td>\n+1.35%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Balance-sheet Strength<\/a><\/td>\n+1.27%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Financial Strength Value<\/a><\/td>\n+0.95%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Long Term Equity*<\/a><\/td>\n+0.54%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consistent10*<\/a><\/td>\n+0.29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Efficient Growth<\/a><\/td>\n-0.12%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Market Elephants<\/a><\/td>\n-1.36%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Momentum 200<\/a><\/td>\n-2.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IT 3rd Benchers<\/a><\/td>\n-2.98%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Velocity*<\/a><\/td>\n-3.33%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
\nHigh beta and mid-cap value outperformed this week. IT was sh*t out of luck.\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Sector performance<\/h3>\n

\"sector<\/a><\/p>\n

Yield Curve<\/h3>\n

\"yield<\/a><\/p>\n

Thought for the weekend<\/h3>\n

Grove, Zald, Lebow, Snitz and Nelson (2000), Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities Campus (pdf<\/a>):<\/p>\n

\nThe process of making judgments and decisions requires a method for combining data. On average, mechanical-prediction techniques were about 10% more accurate than clinical predictions. Depending on the specific analysis, mechanical prediction substantially outperformed clinical prediction in 33%-47% of studies examined. Superiority for mechanical-prediction techniques was consistent, regardless of the judgment task, type of judges, judges’ amounts of experience, or the types of data being combined. These data indicate that mechanical predictions of human behaviors are equal or superior to clinical prediction methods for a wide range of circumstances.\n<\/div>\n

Basically: Models beat experts<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Equities The Nifty rocketed up almost 3% on Friday, ending the week +2.45% (+2.74% in USD terms.) Major DAX(DEU) +0.27% CAC(FRA) +0.43% UKX(GBR) -0.12% NKY(JPN) -1.78% SPX(USA) -0.06% MINTs JCI(IDN) +1.23% INMEX(MEX) +1.88% NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.05% XU030(TUR) +0.41% BRICS IBOV(BRA) +0.29% SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75% NIFTY(IND) +2.45% INDEXCF(RUS) +5.10% TOP40(ZAF) -0.62% Commodities Energy Brent Crude Oil -0.68% Ethanol … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[987],"class_list":["post-1990561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-your-money","tag-weekly","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1990561","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1990561"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1990561\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1990561"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1990561"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1990561"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}