{"id":1876601,"date":"2013-12-07T11:03:49","date_gmt":"2013-12-07T05:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/?p=1876601"},"modified":"2013-12-07T11:03:49","modified_gmt":"2013-12-07T05:33:49","slug":"the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-inside-the-mind-of-a-lemming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2013\/12\/07\/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-inside-the-mind-of-a-lemming\/","title":{"rendered":"The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: Inside the Mind of a Lemming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I didn&#8217;t know what a Lemming was. In case you don&#8217;t either, here&#8217;s what it is: &#8220;Any of various short-tailed furry-footed rodents of circumpolar distribution.&#8221; My next bright reaction was, &#8220;Huh?&#8221; Till I realized that what Warren Buffet&#8217;s referring to here is &#8220;pack behavior.&#8221; Montier describes it as the &#8220;willingness to subjugate one&#8217;s own thoughts for those of a group.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>And \u2026 you&#8217;ve guessed it right! This is exactly what Montier talks about in Chapter 14 of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.flipkart.com\/little-book-behavioral-investing-not-your-own-worst-enemy\/p\/itmczz9qma7uwd2b?pid=9780470686027&amp;otracker=from-search&amp;srno=t_2&amp;query=james+montier&amp;ref=bf95b684-ed7d-4bcd-8848-2d14f2edb045\">The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/74564194@N00\/10038320145\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"zemanta-img-inserted zemanta-img-configured alignleft\" title=\"Lemmings\" alt=\"Lemmings\" src=\"http:\/\/farm8.static.flickr.com\/7330\/10038320145_8e1e17aba7_m.jpg\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As people, we tend to follow the herd. You&#8217;re not one of them? Really? When was the last time you made a contrary statement in a business meeting that your boss didn&#8217;t want to hear? And please, we&#8217;re all guilty of weird actions taken under the influence of peer pressure. The desire to be accepted, be part of a group \u2026 it&#8217;s a basic human need. And when we&#8217;re not careful, it leads to moral, ethical, and in this case, financial failure.<\/p>\n<p>A number of experiments outlined by Montier prove that people who make smart accurate decisions when on their own miss the mark when made aware of a group judgment. They allow this information to influence their own sense of right and wrong, crushing their independent (and more accurate) thought. In one test, the accuracy rate of individuals&#8217; answers fell from 90% to 59% once they saw other people&#8217;s results.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s even more interesting is the fear that&#8217;s triggered in our head on going against the crowd. Neuroscientists studied the brain scan of the experimental subjects during such tests. The found that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Going with a group answer decreases activity in the <a href=\"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2013\/08\/24\/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-introduction\/\">C-system<\/a>, the part that handles logical thinking.<\/li>\n<li>Nonconformity triggers fear and pain. Non-inclusion or social ostracism activates the same brain parts activated by real physical pain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Avoiding pain and fear can cost investors dearly. The proof of this lies in the fact that stocks sold by institutional fund managers actually outperform stocks they&#8217;re busy buying. Over a two year horizon, the difference is estimated to be as much as 17%. That&#8217;s a lot!<\/p>\n<p>Group behavior has other ramifications, like the tentacles of an octopus. They protect their own, praising likeminded people and shunning those who refuse to buckle under the pressure. The &#8220;group think&#8221; behavior leads to faulty decisions based on:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2013\/09\/07\/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-the-big-bad-market\/\">Over-optimism<\/a> and over-confidence (of course, we can&#8217;t be wrong).<\/li>\n<li>Irrationality (blind collective rationalization).<\/li>\n<li>Rightful morality (loose sense of moral, ethical, <a href=\"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2013\/09\/28\/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-forecasting-is-a-sham\/\">logical<\/a> or long-term consequences).<\/li>\n<li>Blanking out of dissenting views (don\u2019t listen to the pessimists).<\/li>\n<li>Group pressure (arguments must not be aired).<\/li>\n<li>Blinders (no deviation from the perceived group consensus).<\/li>\n<li>Presumed unanimity (individual voices are drowned).<\/li>\n<li>Insulation of leaders (group cohesiveness priority over contradictory views).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So how do you beat this? By becoming a <b><i>contrarian investor<\/i><\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Warning: If you&#8217;re a professional investor with a yes-boss organization or even an educationist from academia, this view could get you out on your butt.<\/p>\n<p>Now that we&#8217;re past that, here&#8217;s what you do:<\/p>\n<p><i>First step:<\/i> Admit you&#8217;re part of a herd. Curb the fundamental attribution bias. It makes us imagine we&#8217;re independent thinkers while the rest are easily influenced.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Breaking news! We&#8217;re all sheep!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><i>Second step:<\/i> Memorize the principles laid out by Ben Graham:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><i>Have the courage to be different.<\/i><\/li>\n<li><i>Be a critical thinker.<\/i> To do this, you must understand why the market is not appreciating what you value as good stock.<\/li>\n<li><i>Stick to your principles<\/i>. If you believe your <a href=\"http:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/2013\/09\/07\/the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing-the-big-bad-market\/\">investment plan<\/a> is based on sound valuations, don\u2019t get distracted. Stick with it.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Be brave!<\/p>\n<p><small><i>Monica Samuel is doing a chapter-wise review of the book: The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your worst enemy by James Montier. You can follow the series by following this tag: <a href=\"http:\/\/svz.bz\/tlbbinvesting\" target=\"_blank\">tlbbinvesting<\/a>\u00a0or by subscribing to this rss feed:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/svz.bz\/tlbbifeed\" target=\"_blank\">tlbbifeed<\/a><\/i><\/small><\/p>\n<div class=\"zemanta-pixie\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;height: 15px\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"zemanta-pixie-img\" style=\"border: none;float: right\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/img.zemanta.com\/pixy.gif?x-id=e423254c-82f5-4a9a-9956-2e053bc621dc\" \/><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I didn&#8217;t know what a Lemming was. In case you don&#8217;t either, here&#8217;s what it is: &#8220;Any of various short-tailed furry-footed rodents of circumpolar distribution.&#8221; My next bright reaction was, &#8220;Huh?&#8221; Till I realized that what Warren Buffet&#8217;s referring to here is &#8220;pack behavior.&#8221; Montier describes it as the &#8220;willingness to subjugate one&#8217;s own thoughts &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[2491],"class_list":["post-1876601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-your-money","tag-the-little-book-of-behavioral-investing","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1876601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1876601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1876601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1876601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1876601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stockviz.biz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1876601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}