Opening Bell 30.09.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.31%
CAC(FRA) +0.26%
UKX(GBR) +1.02%
NKY(JPN) -1.55%
SPX(USA) -0.93%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.06%
INMEX(MEX) -0.76%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.04%
XU030(TUR) -0.87%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.69%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.14%
NIFTY(IND) -1.76%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.78%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.90%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -0.37%
WTI Crude Oil -0.52%
RBOB Gasoline +0.20%
Heating Oil -0.39%
Brent Crude Oil -0.63%
Ethanol +0.00%
Metals
Gold 100oz +0.10%
Platinum -0.51%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Copper +0.00%
Palladium -0.13%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.09% USDJPY:+0.41%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.19%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.22%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.14%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.34%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.04%
USDINR(IND) -0.10%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.15%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.03%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -0.10%
Lumber -0.03%
Orange Juice +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.74%
Soybeans -0.50%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle -0.04%
Cattle -0.10%
Corn -0.15%
Cotton +0.00%
Wheat +0.13%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 18 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 17 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

India-Pakistan Tensions: India’s Expanded Toolkit
The Indian Army initiated a military strike against terror camps along the Line of Control in Kashmir. The exact nature of this action, as well as its location, remains vague.

Why People Have Been Worrying About Deutsche Bank, in 12 Charts
How do you solve a problem like Deutsche Bank AG? Its share price fell to an all-time low this week amid concerns that the bank may lack the capital to service litigation costs and meet stricter regulatory standards.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 30.09.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Oct 8800 calls added 10,57,050 contracts.
  2. Oct 9400 calls shed 32,775.
  3. Oct 8000 puts added 12,49,650.
  4. Oct 8700 puts shed 97,575.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

SEP NIFTY OI

SEP NIFTY OI chart

SEP BANKNIFTY OI

SEP BANKNIFTY OI chart

OCT NIFTY OI

OCT NIFTY OI chart

OCT BANKNIFTY OI

OCT BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

OCT NIFTY Volatility

OCT NIFTY Volatility chart

OCT BANKNIFTY Volatility

OCT BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 17.44 17.44 17.44 17.44 17.44
σ 1.58 2.00 2.34 2.64 2.91

Marketwide OI

market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 29.09.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.74%
CAC(FRA) +0.77%
UKX(GBR) +0.61%
NKY(JPN) +1.42%
SPX(USA) +0.53%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.73%
INMEX(MEX) +0.97%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.04%
XU030(TUR) +0.65%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.67%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.59%
NIFTY(IND) +0.45%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.26%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.89%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.12%
Natural Gas +0.50%
RBOB Gasoline +0.04%
WTI Crude Oil +0.19%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.23%
Metals
Platinum +1.39%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Copper +0.55%
Gold 100oz +0.35%
Palladium +0.84%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.11% USDJPY:+0.63%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.01%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.29%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.03%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.54%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.07%
USDINR(IND) -0.03%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.23%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.12%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal +1.20%
Soybeans +1.14%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
Wheat +0.19%
Corn +0.53%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 40 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 31 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Banks face higher provisioning as non-performing assets and bad loans mount
RBI Deputy Governor SS Mundra says banks may be forced to provision more as recoveries are getting tough and more loans fall into the doubtful category.

Centre to wind up Hindustan Cables
The Cabinet has given its nod for a strategic sale of sick public sector firm Bharat Pumps and Compressors, and for the closure of Hindustan Cables that has stopped output since 2003. It has also approved an outlay of more than Rs.

China’s Red-Hot Property Market Risks Missing Lessons From Japan’s Crash
China is turning Japanese. That’s the increasingly held view of observers comparing China’s frenzied real-estate market with the epic bust that more than two decades ago hobbled one of its biggest economic rivals.

Peak Finance Looks Like It’s Over
It’s time to ask a scary question: How much of the financial industry will soon be obsolete? There are many examples of technologies that have been replaced by something newer and better — film replaced by digital cameras, typewriters replaced by word processors.

Asia: Where American Investment-Banking Dreams Go to Die
In 2014, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ranked No. 1 among all investment banks doing business in China and Asia’s emerging economies. Now it isn’t even in the top 10.

39% Of Debt Still With Companies That Can’t Cover Interest: Credit Suisse
The government’s decision to impose a minimum import price (MIP) to protect the domestic steel industry from cheap imports has helped improve the performance of firms in that sector to some extent.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 29.09.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Oct 9000 calls added 3,61,800 contracts.
  2. Oct 8900 calls shed 16,425.
  3. Oct 9100 puts added 2,80,650.
  4. Oct 7800 puts shed 2,250.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

SEP NIFTY OI

SEP NIFTY OI chart

SEP BANKNIFTY OI

SEP BANKNIFTY OI chart

OCT NIFTY OI

OCT NIFTY OI chart

OCT BANKNIFTY OI

OCT BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

SEP NIFTY Volatility

SEP NIFTY Volatility chart

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility chart

OCT NIFTY Volatility

OCT NIFTY Volatility chart

OCT BANKNIFTY Volatility

OCT BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 13.98 14.10 14.20 14.30 14.39
σ 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.79

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: CENTURYTEX, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, JINDALSTEL, JISLJALEQS, JPASSOCIAT, JUSTDIAL, RCOM, SINTEX, WOCKPHARMA.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 28.09.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.31%
CAC(FRA) -0.21%
UKX(GBR) -0.15%
NKY(JPN) -1.54%
SPX(USA) +0.64%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.42%
INMEX(MEX) +0.96%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.05%
XU030(TUR) +0.58%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.57%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.22%
NIFTY(IND) -0.19%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.12%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.26%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +0.30%
RBOB Gasoline +1.13%
WTI Crude Oil +0.00%
Natural Gas -0.27%
Ethanol +0.57%
Brent Crude Oil +0.35%
Metals
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium +0.02%
Copper +0.00%
Platinum +0.15%
Silver 5000oz -0.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.04% USDJPY:+0.16%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.04%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.25%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.00%
USDINR(IND) -0.19%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.33%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.17%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.07%
Soybeans -0.34%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
Wheat +0.31%
Corn -0.08%
Orange Juice +0.00%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 26 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 22 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Men Without Work
Over the weekend, the FT published my review of Nicholas Eberstadt’s important new book Men Without Work.  The core message is captured in the graph below. Job destruction caused by technology is not a futuristic concern.  It is something we have been living with for two generations.

Google for India: ‘Mazze udao, data nahi’, says internet giant
Further strengthening its India focus, Google on Tuesday announced a slew of Made for India products at its ‘Google for India’ event in New Delhi.

Stupefied
Each summer, thousands of the best and brightest graduates join the workforce. Their well-above-average raw intelligence will have been carefully crafted through years at the world’s best universities.

When stocks crash, should you buy them or sell them?
Legends are made and careers are destroyed by large price movements in a stock over a short span of time. Let us look at two examples.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!