Opening Bell 30.07.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-07-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.58%
CAC(FRA) +0.48%
UKX(GBR) +0.29%
NKY(JPN) +0.27%
SPX(USA) -0.45%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.19%
INMEX(MEX) -0.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.60%
XU030(TUR) +0.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.00%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.24%
NIFTY(IND) -0.54%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.60%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.68%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.17%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.26%
Natural Gas -0.13%
RBOB Gasoline -0.23%
WTI Crude Oil +0.19%
Metals
Copper -0.06%
Gold 100oz +0.04%
Palladium +0.40%
Platinum -0.15%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.03% USDJPY:+0.00%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.08%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.00%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.15%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.32%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.40%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.06%
USDINR(IND) +0.05%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.15%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.08%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.20%
Cocoa +0.97%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.39%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.28%
Cotton +0.50%
Feeder Cattle +0.17%
Lean Hogs -0.37%
Lumber +0.06%
Orange Juice -2.06%
Soybean Meal -0.05%
Soybeans -0.33%
Sugar #11 -1.89%
Wheat +0.24%
White Sugar -1.03%

Must reads

The finance ministry has said that the income of the Alternative Investment Funds will be taxed at the maximum rate of 30% (DC)

CCI issues show-cause notices to Sun Pharma and Ranbaxy and asks why the deal should be cleared as it will lead to market domination. (LiveMint) SUNPHARMA 791.00 1.85 (0.23%) RANBAXY 586.05 -4.20 (-0.71%)

Britain’s new inflation index-linked gilt maturing in 2058 was so heavily oversubscribed that it was priced at a negative real yield. This means investors are willing to pay a small fee to the government in return for being compensated for inflation. (FT)

Good luck!

Bonds, Rates and USDINR Update

The Yield Curve

Lets put the current zero-coupon yield curve in context.

Jan 2011 vs. Now

yieldCurve.2011-01-18.2014-07-25

Jan 2012 vs. Now

yieldCurve.2012-01-02.2014-07-25

Jan 2013 vs. Now

yieldCurve.2013-01-01.2014-07-25

Indian 10 yrs vs. US

After the initial Modi euphoria, the spread between Indian 10 yrs and US 10 yrs started to revert back to its mean:

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Total Return Indices

Investors in the long bond are yet to recover from the July 2013 draw-down but this year is looking good. Long-bond might just be the place to be as the RBI is widely expected to get into easing mode later this year/early next year.

Cumulative Returns Since 2000

Short
short bond total return

Intermediate
intermediate bond total return

Long
long bond total return

Cumulative Returns Since 2010

Short
short bond returns since 2010

Intermediate
intermediate bond returns since 2010

Long
long bond returns since 2010

Bond ≠ Boring

Returns have been volatile for bond investors.

gsec monthly returns

Can’t really sell “stability” here.

USDINR

A new normal past the euphoria and the hangover?

USDINR.2013

USDINR.2010

In closing

With inflation somewhat stabilizing and the NDA-II government wanting to kick start growth, bonds are getting interesting again. And when rates start moving, currencies cannot be far behind.

Stay updated on the latest news related to Indian interest rates here. Its curated.

Opening Bell 28.07.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-07-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.53%
CAC(FRA) -1.82%
UKX(GBR) -0.44%
NKY(JPN) +0.47%
SPX(USA) -0.48%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.19%
INMEX(MEX) +0.04%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.60%
XU030(TUR) +0.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.30%
NIFTY(IND) -0.51%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.45%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.46%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.29%
Natural Gas -0.34%
RBOB Gasoline -0.27%
WTI Crude Oil -0.51%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.38%
Palladium -0.16%
Platinum +0.10%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.00% USDJPY:-0.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.08%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.04%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.02%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.00%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.36%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.08%
USDINR(IND) +0.00%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.49%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.16%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa -0.10%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.87%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.49%
Corn +1.03%
Cotton +0.31%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Orange Juice -1.13%
Soybean Meal -0.13%
Soybeans +0.62%
Sugar #11 +0.53%
Wheat +0.74%
White Sugar +0.07%

Must reads

Reliance Power is buying three of Jaypee Group’s hydel assets. (FE) RPOWER 93.70 -0.35 (-0.37%) JPPOWER 19.40 -0.15 (-0.77%)

India Shining 2.0? The Commerce and Industry Ministry is planning a media blitz – print, electronic and social – to hard sell India as an attractive investment destination. (FP)

When your reasons are worse than useless, sometimes the most rational choice is a random stab in the dark. (Aeon)

Good luck! And remember that markets are closed tomorrow (Tuesday) for Ramzan ID.