Opening Bell 22.09.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-09-22

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.01%
CAC(FRA) -0.08%
UKX(GBR) +0.27%
NKY(JPN) -0.81%
SPX(USA) -0.05%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.07%
INMEX(MEX) -0.87%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.90%
XU030(TUR) -0.59%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.00%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.26%
NIFTY(IND) +0.08%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.18%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.52%
Ethanol -2.03%
Heating Oil -0.38%
Natural Gas +0.03%
RBOB Gasoline -0.53%
WTI Crude Oil -0.37%
Metals
Copper -1.28%
Gold 100oz -0.03%
Palladium -0.16%
Platinum -0.40%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.27% USDJPY:-0.31%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.02%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.14%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.20%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.14%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.04%
USDINR(IND) -0.03%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.12%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.24%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.05%
Cocoa +1.94%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.57%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.88%
Corn -0.45%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.02%
Lean Hogs +1.12%
Lumber -0.42%
Orange Juice -0.56%
Soybean Meal -0.93%
Soybeans -1.25%
Sugar #11 -2.10%
Wheat +0.37%
White Sugar -0.97%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.22%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.35%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.59%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -2.57%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.50%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.97%
Markit iTraxx Europe -2.61%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -13.70%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.16%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.00%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.25%
NKY in the red this morning and it looks like Indian markets are following suit. Commodities are continuing to correct…

Must reads

The G20 has decided to put in place a mechanism for automatic exchange of tax information between various countries by 2017. It would facilitate a “systematic and periodic transmission of bulk taxpayer information by the source country of income to the country of residence of the taxpayer concerning various categories of income or asset information.” (HT)

S P Kothari, Deputy dean, MIT Sloan: “Tomorrow if I invest in Delhi Metro, there will be two possibilities. One is the Metro starts making more money. This news will be music to the investor’s [my] ears. Soon I will be accused of price gouging by the government and fares will be reduced. This is how my upside is clipped. Now suppose I start losing money soon after the investment, will the government increase the fares to safeguard my interest? Never.” (BS)

FIIs have stepped up investments in long-term government bonds with maturities extending up to 28-30 years. (ET, #bonds)

Good luck!

Quantitative Comparison of Mutual Funds

How do you compare two Mutual Funds and what should be the basis for such a comparison? There is the question of returns, obviously. But higher returns can be achieved by taking on more risk. And then there’s the question of draw-downs. What were the periods of bad performance and how long did it take the asset manager to make up for those losses? How do you compare risk-adjusted returns of two funds? What if you want to compare returns to whatever benchmark index you wanted?

Mutual Fund Comparison Tool

You can compare over 800 funds to each other and any benchmark index you choose. For example, are you confused between ICICI Top 100 and DSP BlackRock Top 100? Punch it in and hit compare.

Since 2008-01-01, ICICI’s Top 100 Fund has returned a cumulative 71.64% vs. BlackRock’s Top 100′s 59.49%.

And as you can see from the wealth chart below, BlackRock’s under-performance has been recent.

icici dsp top 100

However, during the depths of the 2008 crisis, BlackRock managed to go down 51.73% vs. ICICI’s 55.66% and spent 632 days in the red vs. ICICI’s 656 days.

Now, how about comparing ICICI’s Top 100 vs. their own Top 200?

Since 2008-01-01, ICICI Top 100 has returned a cumulative 71.64% vs. Top 200′s cumulative return of 48.57%. And the Top 200 fund really shit the bed during 2008.

icici 200

Confused between value funds and midcap index funds? Do famous managers live up to their reputations?

Since 2010-01-04, PPFAS Long Term Value Fund has returned a cumulative 50.62% vs. BSE MID CAP’s cumulative return of 44.71%. And the fund’s worst period was between 2013-08-28 and 2013-10-11, where it lost -5.84%.

Go ahead, check out the tool: FundCompare
 
 
 

Please don’t treat the information here as investment advice.
However, if you do want advice on investing in mutual funds, please get in touch with Shyam.
You can either WhatsApp him or call him at 080-2665-0232.
He is an AMFI registered IFA who can advice you on ICICI Pru, UTI and Birla Sun Life funds.

Weekly Recap: The Darwin Economy

world.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.53%
CAC(FRA) +0.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.45%
NKY(JPN) +2.34%
SPX(USA) +1.26%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.63%
INMEX(MEX) +0.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.93%
XU030(TUR) -1.10%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.90%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.11%
NIFTY(IND) +0.20%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.85%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.65%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.06%
Ethanol -9.04%
Heating Oil -1.02%
Natural Gas +0.03%
RBOB Gasoline +3.15%
WTI Crude Oil +0.06%
Metals
Copper -0.32%
Gold 100oz -0.71%
Palladium -2.65%
Platinum -2.27%
Silver 5000oz -4.30%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.92% USDJPY:+1.59%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.25%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.20%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.09%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.28%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.79%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.69%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.59%
Cocoa +2.78%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.17%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.17%
Corn -0.38%
Cotton -7.18%
Feeder Cattle +0.40%
Lean Hogs +0.09%
Lumber -5.73%
Orange Juice -2.53%
Soybean Meal -25.03%
Soybeans -12.21%
Sugar #11 -2.24%
Wheat -4.43%
White Sugar +4.07%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.28%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.08%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.35%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +0.88%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.32%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.32%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -0.36%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.21%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.68%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.00%
The Dollar rallied across the board and precious metals took it on the chin. Bad news about the economy is good news for Japanese markets – BOJ will continue to hoover up any and all assets as it fights deflation and tries to kick start a moribund economy. The Scotland “No” vote prevented a disintegration of the British Pound and their banking system. Alibaba popped at its debut in NYSE to a market value of $230 billion on a fully diluted basis.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Index Returns

index performance.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.51% 74/71
2 -2.23% 72/72
3 -1.08% 67/77
4 -0.32% 69/75
5 -1.86% 67/77
6 -1.24% 70/75
7 +0.60% 70/74
8 -0.34% 76/68
9 -0.32% 74/70
10 (mega) -0.16% 67/78
One wonders how the NIFTY ended in the green this week…

Top Winners and Losers

DRREDDY +8.93%
ZEEL +10.47%
INFRATEL +10.91%
JINDALSTEL -10.82%
YESBANK -7.99%
PFC -7.16%
Infratel: the volatility in the stock is enough to give you ulcers. Yes Bank collapsed on hitting its FDI cap. It will be a good buy soon…

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +0.30%
INFRABEES +0.27%
JUNIORBEES -0.80%
GOLDBEES -0.82%
BANKBEES -0.88%
CPSEETF -3.84%
PSUBNKBEES -3.92%
PSU banks will be hitting the market soon with fund raising plans… we should all do our duty as tax-paying Indian citizens and avoid them.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.36 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.31 -0.28%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 -0.01%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.06 +0.78%
The long end of the curve is getting bid up on rate-cut expectations next year…

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.SEP.2014-09-12.2014-09-19

Theme Performance

IT stocks got bid up this week, probably because of the Dollar rally. The rest of them were mixed bags.

Thought for the weekend

The real challenge to Adam Smith’s invisible hand is rooted in the very logic of the competitive process itself.

Charles Darwin was one of the first to perceive the underlying problem clearly. One of his central insights was that natural selection favors traits and behaviors primarily according to their effect on individual organisms, not larger groups. Sometimes individual and group interests coincide and in such cases we often get invisible hand-like results.

In other cases, however, mutations that help the individual prove quite harmful to the larger group. This is in fact the expected result for mutations that confer advantage in head-to-head competition among members of the same species. This conflict pervades human interactions when individual rewards depend on relative performance.

Source: The Darwin Economy – Why Smith’s Invisible Hand Breaks Down