Opening Bell 20.08.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-08-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.96%
CAC(FRA) +0.56%
UKX(GBR) +0.56%
NKY(JPN) -0.05%
SPX(USA) +0.50%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.40%
INMEX(MEX) +0.31%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.07%
XU030(TUR) +2.73%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.54%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.16%
NIFTY(IND) +0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.81%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.49%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.05%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.05%
Natural Gas -0.49%
RBOB Gasoline +0.58%
WTI Crude Oil +0.52%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.02%
Palladium +0.24%
Platinum +0.13%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.11% USDJPY:+0.11%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.21%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.02%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.16%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.47%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.07%
USDINR(IND) -0.14%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.33%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.05%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.43%
Cocoa -1.20%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.20%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.36%
Corn -0.69%
Cotton +0.19%
Feeder Cattle -0.53%
Lean Hogs -0.32%
Lumber +0.54%
Orange Juice -1.09%
Soybean Meal +0.35%
Soybeans +0.11%
Sugar #11 -1.40%
Wheat -0.14%
White Sugar -1.25%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.20%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.34%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.58%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -3.55%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.61%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.23%
Markit iTraxx Europe -4.47%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -18.59%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.02%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.09%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.40%
Credit markets continue to signal “risk on.” Although western markets ended in the green, NKY seems to have opened in negative territory this morning. Will the NIFTY rally continue today? How many successive +1% days can we sustain? Stay tuned!

Must reads

Sebi has proposed that all listed companies should intimate within 15 minutes of closure of the board meetings about decisions on dividends, bonus, fund raising and buyback, among others. (ET)

The key to active reading is finding the basis for any factual assertion to determine if it is logically valid or not. Data provides a start for understanding market events. But without context, we lose meaning. Lacking that, the alternative is often assumptions, myths and bias. (BV, #behavioral-finance)

“Governments need to reform their labour markets, reduce taxes that weigh on business, free companies from red tape and continue to repair their public finances. Merely talking about such reforms is not enough…” Is he talking about India? Think again! (FT)

Good luck!

Options Daily 20.08.2014

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-18.2014-08-19

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-18.2014-08-19

Anomalous Option Trades

A sudden increase or decrease in open interest can signify informed buying/selling that you can potentially profit from. Option traders tend to ‘lead the pack’ and their actions can be used to gain insight into the consensus opinion of traders. This scan lists option trades that were one standard deviation away from the average over the last 20-days. Note that this scan maybe too noisy around expiry.

You can download the data here.

Check out our Option Strategy Studio. One more reason to open a demat account with us.

IPOs: A Performance Update

We are not big fans of IPOs at StockViz (here, here). As an asset class, they are a bit like playing chutes-and-ladders. Even if you manage to roll into a few ladders, there are plenty of chutes that can take you down to zero.

To see if IPOs make sense as an investment, you should compare their returns to a broader index. On one hand, we have the S&P BSE IPO index that tracks the value of companies for two years after listing. And on the other, we have the BSE 100 index that tracks the top 100 stocks my market value. By comparing the returns of the two indices, we can get a fair idea of what we are getting into.

BSE IPO Index 2005-today

A buy-and-hold investor in the index at the beginning of 2005 would still be underwater after the bust of 2008. And to make matters worse, the BSE 100 index has trounced the IPO index.

BSEIPO-returns-c

BSE IPO Index 2005-2010

BSEIPO-returns-a

BSE IPO Index 2010-today

BSEIPO-returns-b

IPOs on NSE since 2013

8KMILES
2014-01-29
+130.05%
AGARIND
2014-05-26
-45.53%
AGRITECH
2014-01-28
-79.37%
ANKITMETAL
2013-03-14
-65.29%
ARCOTECH
2014-04-16
+109.74%
ATULAUTO
2013-06-26
+277.10%
BUTTERFLY
2014-04-28
-12.57%
CAPLIPOINT
2014-06-23
+123.21%
CASTROLIND
2014-03-14
+19.52%
CEREBRAINT
2013-06-26
-61.25%
CNOVAPETRO
2014-01-01
-9.73%
DUNCANSLTD
2013-07-05
+16.70%
FCEL
2013-07-04
+38.17%
FLFL
2013-10-01
-35.45%
GSCLCEMENT
2013-05-15
+71.76%
GULFCORP
2014-06-26
-13.61%
GULFOILLUB
2014-07-31
+17.04%
HATSUN
2014-06-20
+10.28%
IBULHSGFIN
2013-07-23
+38.09%
INTEGRA
2013-08-20
-64.66%
JPOLYINVST
2013-11-11
+40.20%
JUSTDIAL
2013-06-05
+183.46%
LYPSAGEMS
2013-11-05
+1.31%
MAKE
2014-06-30
+72.51%
MMWL
2014-03-26
+56.67%
MOHITIND
2013-03-14
-38.16%
NAKODA
2013-03-14
-58.05%
NATHBIOGEN
2014-01-28
+632.86%
NGCT
2013-11-12
-32.08%
NIBL
2013-04-09
+214.95%
ORBTEXP
2013-11-05
+112.96%
ORIENTCEM
2013-07-12
+105.70%
PFRL
2013-07-17
-33.22%
PILIND
2013-10-07
+230.77%
REPCOHOME
2013-04-01
+172.19%
SDBL
2014-03-18
-13.60%
SFCL
2013-10-24
+72.90%
SREEL
2014-01-01
-11.07%
SUJANATWR
2013-09-11
+103.87%
VIMALOIL
2013-05-21
+75.39%
VIVIDHA
2013-05-21
-3.51%
VMART
2013-02-20
+91.39%
WELENTRP
2014-07-11
+221.25%
WONDERLA
2014-05-09
+80.04%
The NSE does not have an IPO index. So we had a look at all the stocks listed since January 2013.

There have been twice as many winners as losers since 2013 and the chatter around the ‘IPO market heating up’ has been getting louder. However, investors would do well to keep the big picture in mind before jumping into that hot new IPO that their brokers are selling.

You can track the latest IPO news here.

Opening Bell 19.08.2014

Your world at 9am

world equity markets 2014-08-19

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.68%
CAC(FRA) +1.35%
UKX(GBR) +0.78%
NKY(JPN) +0.91%
SPX(USA) +0.85%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.37%
INMEX(MEX) +0.57%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.02%
XU030(TUR) +0.96%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.05%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.08%
NIFTY(IND) +1.06%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.68%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.21%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.27%
Natural Gas -0.21%
RBOB Gasoline +0.40%
WTI Crude Oil +0.38%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.08%
Palladium -0.09%
Platinum +0.27%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.05% USDJPY:+0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.03%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.01%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.43%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.07%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.12%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.05%
USDINR(IND) -0.74%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.36%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.14%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.18%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.03%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.15%
Corn -0.35%
Cotton +0.14%
Feeder Cattle +0.19%
Lean Hogs +0.74%
Lumber +0.78%
Orange Juice -0.98%
Soybean Meal +0.03%
Soybeans -0.25%
Sugar #11 -1.70%
Wheat -0.55%
White Sugar -1.16%

Must reads

Oil ministry tells Delhi HC that ONGC is smoking dope. (LiveMint) ONGC 423.00 -12.20 (-2.80%)RELIANCE 996.60 -12.70 (-1.26%)

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Industry/17b74mj5IQk1ZzFkjc65mI/Oil-ministry-accuses-ONGC-of-making-frivolous-allegations.html?utm_source=copy

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Industry/17b74mj5IQk1ZzFkjc65mI/Oil-ministry-accuses-ONGC-of-making-frivolous-allegations.html?utm_source=copy

Potato Famine in the North-East? (ET)

Retail loans may get cheaper this festive season. (HT)

Options Daily 19.08.2014

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-18

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-18

Anomalous Option Trades

A sudden increase or decrease in open interest can signify informed buying/selling that you can potentially profit from. Option traders tend to ‘lead the pack’ and their actions can be used to gain insight into the consensus opinion of traders. This scan lists option trades that were one standard deviation away from the average over the last 20-days. Note that this scan maybe too noisy around expiry.

You can download the data here.

Check out our Option Strategy Studio. One more reason to open a demat account with us.