Opening Bell 29.01.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-01-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.78%
CAC(FRA) -0.29%
UKX(GBR) +0.21%
NKY(JPN) -0.12%
SPX(USA) -1.35%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.20%
INMEX(MEX) -1.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.16%
XU030(TUR) -0.99%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.85%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.58%
NIFTY(IND) +0.04%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.57%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.06%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.37%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.11%
Natural Gas +0.91%
RBOB Gasoline +0.67%
WTI Crude Oil +0.22%
Metals
Copper -0.68%
Gold 100oz -0.41%
Palladium -0.57%
Platinum -0.56%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.03% USDJPY:+0.31%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.19%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.36%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.24%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.12%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.03%
USDINR(IND) -0.00%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.03%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.06%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.54%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.33%
Cotton -0.20%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.92%
Orange Juice -4.35%
Soybean Meal -0.06%
Soybeans -0.13%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat -0.20%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.21%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.29%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.20%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.28%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.26%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.87%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +8.56%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.92%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.29%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.09%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.30%
How will the NIFTY fare in the sea of red today?

Must reads

JLR, which accounts for most of Tata’s overall revenue, can’t be sure of high growth anymore in China and Europe, where it sold 63% of its cars last year. (WSJ) TATAMOTORS 597.00 7.80 (1.32%)

To ensure hassle free credit to all borrowers, the RBI has asked banks to dispense with obtaining ‘no due certificate’ from the individual borrowers. Because, technology. (HBL, #regulation)

Real estate inventory piles up across 6 cities. (LiveMint, #real estate)

3G, Vodafone, Coal India, PFC, REC. FTW! (ET)

Subprime bonds are back! (Bloomberg)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 28.01.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-01-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.57%
CAC(FRA) -1.09%
UKX(GBR) -0.60%
NKY(JPN) -0.05%
SPX(USA) -1.34%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.05%
INMEX(MEX) -0.21%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.27%
XU030(TUR) -0.36%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.03%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.14%
NIFTY(IND) +0.85%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.92%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.76%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.25%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.69%
Natural Gas -2.25%
RBOB Gasoline +0.59%
WTI Crude Oil -1.67%
Metals
Copper +0.26%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium -0.61%
Platinum -0.29%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.39% USDJPY:+0.19%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.28%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.15%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.39%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) -0.04%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.45%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.03%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.21%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.20%
Cotton -0.65%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.26%
Orange Juice -2.46%
Soybean Meal +0.30%
Soybeans +0.08%
Sugar #11 -0.98%
Wheat -0.10%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.60%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.15%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.93%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.42%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.60%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.66%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.78%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.64%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.09%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.70%
The spectacular USD rally has resulted in quite a few American cos missing their quarterly earnings estimate. Only bright spot being Apple which made more money than any other corporation in history. Looks like the Euro-QE sugar rush is over and we are back to reality…

Must reads

“What has emerged now under Prime Minister Modi is that he has pronounced the US as India’s principal strategic partner. He could do this as he carries no Cold War-era baggage. He has got rid of any ambiguity vis-à-vis the US in foreign policy.” (LiveMint)

We want arms, not legs from the US. India wants to ban low-cost American chicken legs. (TOI, #economy)

Make in India: Volkswagen has started assembling diesel engines for passenger cars in India. It will make the 1.5 litre turbo diesel engines for the Polo, Vento and Skoda Rapid models. (FE)

Jailey: fiscal deficit targets for current year are likely to be met and manufacturing sector is showing turnaround signs. (FP)

In the world we live in we are often expected to be experts. We are expected to know everything and many people rush to conclusions given a limited set of information. Learning comes from starting with a point-of-view that says, “I don’t know.” (BSOT)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 27.01.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-01-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.40%
CAC(FRA) +0.74%
UKX(GBR) +0.29%
NKY(JPN) +1.44%
SPX(USA) +0.26%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.29%
INMEX(MEX) +0.46%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.11%
XU030(TUR) +0.69%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.87%
NIFTY(IND) +0.85%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.76%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.26%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.37%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.12%
Natural Gas +1.35%
RBOB Gasoline +0.17%
WTI Crude Oil +0.22%
Metals
Copper -0.04%
Gold 100oz -0.17%
Palladium -0.83%
Platinum -0.10%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.01% USDJPY:-0.19%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.22%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.15%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.01%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.13%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.13%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.08%
USDINR(IND) -0.44%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.44%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.08%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.15%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.52%
Cotton -0.38%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber -0.09%
Orange Juice -2.04%
Soybean Meal +0.32%
Soybeans -0.13%
Sugar #11 +1.65%
Wheat -0.53%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.94%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.62%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.50%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -7.50%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.91%
Markit iTraxx Europe -2.83%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -15.11%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.22%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.37%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.11%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.20%
Euro Grexit vs. Euro QE. And the winner is?

Must reads

One of the main factors responsible for bringing down food inflation is the fall in rural wage growth. Could the reduced spending on the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) be a reason? (LiveMint, #inflation)

Rajasthan Chief Minister: well-to-do families should consider buying the LPG cylinders on market price. (HBL)

The price of iron ore has declined to $63 a tonne for the first time in five and a half years. (FT)

Only about one in three Americans are satisfied with their current financial health. But among those who say they are physically healthy, that number jumps to 65%. Fat and broke? (MW)

Looking too regularly at portfolio performance can be counterproductive and actually prevent investors from taking on an appropriate level of risk. (Pieria)

Good luck!

Options Daily 27.01.2015

Summary: Feb NIFTY 9200 calls added 244,700 contracts while 8800 calls shed 58,000. On the Put side of the equation, the 8500 strike added 333,575 while the 9000′s shed 43,375.

JAN NIFTY OI

JAN NIFTY OI chart

JAN BANKNIFTY OI

JAN BANKNIFTY OI chart

FEB NIFTY OI

FEB NIFTY OI chart

FEB BANKNIFTY OI

FEB BANKNIFTY OI chart

JAN UNITECH OI

JAN UNITECH OI chart

FEB TATAMTRDVR OI

The 370 calls shed 123,000 contracts.

FEB TATAMTRDVR OI chart

FEB HDIL OI

The 35 puts shed 148,000 contracts.

FEB HDIL OI chart

Weekly Recap: Electric Shocks

world.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.74%
CAC(FRA) +5.96%
UKX(GBR) +4.31%
NKY(JPN) +3.84%
SPX(USA) +2.19%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.41%
INMEX(MEX) +3.45%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.68%
XU030(TUR) +3.92%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.62%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.73%
NIFTY(IND) +3.78%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.05%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.81%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +7.34%
RBOB Gasoline +0.77%
Brent Crude Oil -1.73%
WTI Crude Oil -5.25%
Natural Gas -4.87%
Heating Oil -1.34%
Metals
Gold 100oz +1.57%
Platinum -0.02%
Copper -3.79%
Palladium +2.81%
Silver 5000oz +3.95%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.13% USDJPY:+0.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.04%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.28%
USDNGN(NGA) +3.07%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.75%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.34%
USDINR(IND) -0.71%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.42%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -6.85%
Orange Juice +0.44%
Sugar #11 -0.78%
Wheat -1.12%
White Sugar -1.18%
Cattle -2.87%
Corn +0.19%
Cotton -3.43%
Lumber -0.03%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.09%
Feeder Cattle -0.29%
Soybean Meal +1.41%
Cocoa -4.63%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.63%
Soybeans -1.82%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.18%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.60%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.34%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.79%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -22.27%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.84%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.29%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.08%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.30%
Markets rallied and the Euro tumbled on ECB’s 60bn QE program.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.90% 68/68
2 +0.87% 71/63
3 +2.38% 74/61
4 +0.11% 75/61
5 +1.42% 70/65
6 +1.20% 71/64
7 +3.52% 74/62
8 +1.50% 72/63
9 +2.00% 73/62
10 (mega) +2.91% 62/74
A broad-based rally driven by Eurozone EQ, falling oil, rate cuts, budget… Oh my!

Top Winners and Losers

TATAMOTORS +11.93%
BHARTIARTL +12.03%
ADANIENT +12.70%
M&MFIN -18.22%
SRTRANSFIN -5.98%
PETRONET -4.61%
The Adani stable was on fire this week…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +6.67%
BANKBEES +4.46%
NIFTYBEES +3.59%
GOLDBEES +1.78%
JUNIORBEES +1.77%
CPSEETF +0.64%
PSUBNKBEES +0.27%
No asset left behind…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-16.2015-01-23

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.11 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.06 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 -0.05%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.11%
Weird that the long end of the curve ended the week in the red.

Investment Theme Performance

Large-cap dominance drove CNX 100 Tactical this week. Momentum was not far behind…

Thought for the weekend

Research:

Study participants from a range of ages generally did not enjoy spending even brief periods of time alone in a room with nothing to do but think, ponder or daydream. The participants, by and large, enjoyed much more doing external activities such as listening to music or using a smartphone. Some even preferred to give themselves mild electric shocks than to think.

Source: Most people are just not comfortable in their own heads