Monthly Recap: Gain And Prevent Pain

world equity markets 2014-06-30.2014-07-31

The Nifty ended July +1.44% (+1.19% in USD)

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.33%
CAC(FRA) -4.00%
UKX(GBR) -0.21%
NKY(JPN) +2.71%
SPX(USA) -1.67%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.31%
INMEX(MEX) +1.49%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.91%
XU030(TUR) +4.91%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +5.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +7.55%
NIFTY(IND) +0.76%
INDEXCF(RUS) -6.45%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.55%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -5.81%
Ethanol -1.46%
Heating Oil -2.68%
Natural Gas -14.52%
RBOB Gasoline -9.28%
WTI Crude Oil -7.17%
Metals
Copper +0.94%
Gold 100oz -2.74%
Palladium +3.61%
Platinum -1.35%
Silver 5000oz -3.32%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.30% USDJPY:+1.62%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.83%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.77%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.31%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.45%
USDINR(IND) +1.04%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.02%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.72%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.75%
Cocoa +2.07%
Coffee (Arabica) +13.49%
Coffee (Robusta) +5.46%
Corn -15.82%
Cotton -21.95%
Feeder Cattle +3.10%
Lean Hogs -10.68%
Lumber -2.45%
Orange Juice -0.53%
Soybean Meal -14.58%
Soybeans -12.39%
Sugar #11 -1.14%
Wheat -5.62%
White Sugar -7.31%

Index Performance

index performance.2014-06-30.2014-07-31

Top winners and losers

GLENMARK +15.65%
HINDALCO +16.75%
IDEA +18.42%
UNIONBANK -20.59%
M&MFIN -16.59%
RECLTD -14.83%
Looks like Abhishek Bachchan’s Idea contract is going to get extended…

ETFs

NIFTYBEES +2.02%
JUNIORBEES -0.60%
GOLDBEES -1.44%
BANKBEES -4.81%
INFRABEES -7.41%
PSUBNKBEES -10.05%
Large caps FTW!

Investment Theme Performance

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-06-30.2014-07-31

Yield Curve

If it gets any flatter, it will be called a pancake…

yield Curve.2014-06-30.2014-07-31

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2014-07-31

Total Return Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.03 +0.69%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.63 +1.00%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.33 +1.76%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.18 +2.29%
Riding down the rates curve has been a one-way trade so far this year. Read our analysis on Bonds and Rates.

Thought to sum up the month

Tasks that you are driven toward by Gain produce more significant positive results in your life and your business than tasks that you are driven toward by Prevent Pain.
 
If you continue to do solely what is necessary to survive every day, all you will accomplish is preventing pain from coming your way. To move your life or your business forward from where it is today and to see an improvement, you must do something extraordinary— something that you didn’t have to do at all. You must pursue Gain.

Source: Two Forms of Human Motivation: Gain And Prevent Pain

Opening Bell 01.08.2014

your world at 9am

world.2014-08-01

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.94%
CAC(FRA) -1.53%
UKX(GBR) -0.64%
NKY(JPN) -0.33%
SPX(USA) -2.00%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.19%
INMEX(MEX) -1.25%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.64%
XU030(TUR) -2.46%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.84%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.08%
NIFTY(IND) -0.90%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.18%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.79%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.00%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.08%
Natural Gas -0.57%
RBOB Gasoline -0.23%
WTI Crude Oil -0.13%
Metals
Copper +0.05%
Gold 100oz +0.10%
Palladium +0.03%
Platinum +0.08%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.03% USDJPY:+0.09%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.68%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.00%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.80%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.02%
USDINR(IND) +0.84%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.20%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.04%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.40%
Cocoa +0.65%
Coffee (Arabica) +7.42%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.17%
Corn +0.07%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle -0.44%
Lean Hogs +0.23%
Lumber +0.77%
Orange Juice +0.47%
Soybean Meal -0.31%
Soybeans -0.12%
Sugar #11 -1.14%
Wheat +0.42%
White Sugar -0.82%

Must reads

Standard & Poor’s declared Argentina in default after the government missed a deadline for paying interest on $13 billion of restructured bonds. (Bloomberg) It is but a flesh would. The country’s predilection for self-sabotage is legendary. (WSJ)

With each passing month, the euro zone edges closer to deflation. CPI in the euro area fell to 0.4% in the year to this month, down from 0.5% in June. (FT)

Investing success = diversification + flexible investment outlook + luck. (Fool.com)

Good luck and have a nice weekend!

60% of the time, it works everytime

When I was in high school, we were taught about “truth tables.” It is a mathematical table used in logic to tell whether a propositional expression is true for all legitimate input values. Watching pundits speak on TV is makes you wonder how they could ever have passed high school algebra.

The Can’t Lose Argument

Beware those who are never wrong. The “Can’t Lose Argument” goes something like this: A data point will be mentioned, and no matter what the net change in that data — up, down or neutral — it is somehow bad for markets.

Link: If You Can’t Lose,You’re a Loser

There is always a divergence

Sometimes they matter, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes one key divergence that was extremely important ends up meaning exactly zero the next time around. A single divergence, in and of itself, has all of the reliable predictive power of a bowl of chicken bones spilled out across the table.

Link: There’s ALWAYS a divergence

Macro-tainment

It’s crucial to recognize that macroeconomics is something that even the world’s smartest economists still don’t understand very well, and that political ideology and economic reality don’t mix.

Link: When Entertainment Passes for Investment Advice

Related: Musings on stock-market forecasts

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