Weekly Recap: Is e-commerce a head-fake?

world equity markets 2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Equities

The Nifty ended the week +1.56% (+2.60% in USD terms.)

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.24%
CAC(FRA) +1.13%
UKX(GBR) +1.35%
NKY(JPN) +1.47%
SPX(USA) +1.83%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.84%
INMEX(MEX) +1.55%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.45%
XU030(TUR) +1.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +4.95%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.56%
NIFTY(IND) +1.56%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.50%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.25%
Ethanol -0.74%
Heating Oil +0.36%
Natural Gas -1.71%
RBOB Gasoline +2.71%
WTI Crude Oil -2.23%
Metals
Copper +3.90%
Gold 100oz -2.44%
Palladium +0.54%
Platinum -3.10%
Silver 5000oz -2.02%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.92% USDJPY:+1.42%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.05%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.38%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.47%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.00%
USDINR(IND) -0.49%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.48%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.35%
Agricultural
Cattle +1.57%
Cocoa -0.77%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.41%
Coffee (Robusta) +2.16%
Corn +0.62%
Cotton +5.75%
Feeder Cattle +0.71%
Lean Hogs -18.68%
Lumber +2.62%
Orange Juice -2.15%
Soybean Meal -3.84%
Soybeans -8.63%
Sugar #11 -2.01%
Wheat +2.38%
White Sugar -1.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.16%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.31%
Markit CDX NA IG -2.67%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -5.81%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.49%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.86%
Markit iTraxx Europe -5.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -19.04%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.98%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.37%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.40%
It was a good week for the markets. Both equities and credit did well. Longs ended strong!

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Index Returns

index performance.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 +2.25% 69/66
2 +6.22% 78/57
3 +4.32% 77/56
4 +5.44% 79/57
5 +6.02% 77/57
6 +5.75% 77/58
7 +4.54% 74/61
8 +4.98% 73/61
9 +3.68% 77/58
10 +1.97% 69/66
An across the board rally is quite a sight!

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +10.63%
CIPLA +11.30%
UNIONBANK +14.86%
HDFC -7.09%
INFRATEL -4.65%
ITC -3.70%
Banks and pharma did well this week…

ETFs

PSUBNKBEES +5.21%
BANKBEES +4.66%
JUNIORBEES +3.60%
NIFTYBEES +1.57%
INFRABEES +0.91%
GOLDBEES -2.05%
PSU Banks finally put in an up week…

Investment Theme Performance

All strategies in the green. Confirms what the market decile performance scan showed…

Yield curve

yield Curve.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.20%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.14 -0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.05 +0.20%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.03 -0.27%
This is interesting: Franklin Templeton bought a record Rs 16,000-crore government securities in a day. (ET)

August Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

August BankNifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-14.2014-08-22

Thought for the weekend

E-commerce operations aren’t as cheap to run as most people think. Their economics greatly resemble those of mail order catalogs and they aren’t all favorable. E-commerce companies ship to customers from large, expensive, highly productive fulfillment centers. A state-of-the-art center can cost $250 million or more to build, or about 10 times as much as a big box store. And competition is growing while growth is slowing.

US E-Commerce Growth

Source: Online Shopping Isn’t as Profitable as You Think (HBR)

Options Daily 22.08.2014

Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-20.2014-08-21

Bank Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-20.2014-08-21

Anomalous Option Trades

A sudden increase or decrease in open interest can signify informed buying/selling that you can potentially profit from. Option traders tend to ‘lead the pack’ and their actions can be used to gain insight into the consensus opinion of traders. This scan lists option trades that were one standard deviation away from the average over the last 20-days. Note that this scan maybe too noisy around expiry.

You can download here.

Check out our Option Strategy Studio. One more reason to open a demat account with us.

Opening Bell 22.08.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-08-22

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.93%
CAC(FRA) +1.23%
UKX(GBR) +0.33%
NKY(JPN) +0.08%
SPX(USA) +0.29%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.18%
INMEX(MEX) +0.27%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.05%
XU030(TUR) +0.17%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.19%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.14%
NIFTY(IND) +0.20%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.74%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.06%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.16%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.16%
Natural Gas -0.62%
RBOB Gasoline +0.11%
WTI Crude Oil -0.13%
Metals
Copper +0.41%
Gold 100oz +0.18%
Palladium +0.39%
Platinum +0.33%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.01% USDJPY:-0.03%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.01%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.07%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.30%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.12%
USDINR(IND) +0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.60%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.12%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa -0.82%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.41%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.97%
Corn +0.55%
Cotton +0.15%
Feeder Cattle +0.14%
Lean Hogs +0.59%
Lumber +0.00%
Orange Juice -0.03%
Soybean Meal +1.59%
Soybeans +1.21%
Sugar #11 +1.72%
Wheat +0.82%
White Sugar +1.96%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.23%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.04%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.44%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL -0.32%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.53%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.23%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.07%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +1.76%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.02%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.68%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.00%
NKY about flat, spreads in the red. Correction day today?

Must reads

Ranbaxy overcharged Texas for drugs. May have to pay another hefty fine in the United States of close to Rs 240 crore. (ET)

Gap to Open 40 Stores in India. (NDTV)

RBI clamped restrictions on the amount that NBFCs can lend against shares pledged as collateral, in an attempt to curb potential volatility in the stock markets. (LiveMint, #regulation)

Good luck and have a nice weekend!

Do Superstitious Traders Lose Money?

Found an interesting paper (scribd embed below) where the authors hypothesize that superstition may be a symptom of a general cognitive disability in making financial decisions.

The authors constructed a “superstition index” and bucketed traders based on their trading activity in the Taiwan Futures Exchange. They found that the superstitious individuals (the top-quintile of the superstition index) under-perform their non-superstitious counterparts (the bottom-quintile of the superstition index) by 1.6 basis points within a trading day. The under-performance widens to 2.4 basis points for one day and 6.3 basis points for five days after the transactions.

Here’s an odd titbit: Did you know that India’s Independence Day falls a day after Pakistan’s because astrologers in India insisted that August 14, 1947, was an inauspicious day to become independent?

Options Daily 21.08.2014

Nifty OI

nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-19.2014-08-20

Bank Nifty OI

bank-nifty.puts.calls.AUG.2014-08-19.2014-08-20

Anomalous Option Trades

A sudden increase or decrease in open interest can signify informed buying/selling that you can potentially profit from. Option traders tend to ‘lead the pack’ and their actions can be used to gain insight into the consensus opinion of traders. This scan lists option trades that were one standard deviation away from the average over the last 20-days. Note that this scan maybe too noisy around expiry.

You can download the data here.

Check out our Option Strategy Studio. One more reason to open a demat account with us.