Opening Bell 04.03.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-03-04

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.14%
CAC(FRA) -0.98%
UKX(GBR) -0.74%
NKY(JPN) -0.77%
SPX(USA) -0.45%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.54%
INMEX(MEX) -0.67%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.10%
XU030(TUR) +0.48%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.56%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.36%
NIFTY(IND) +0.44%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.37%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.43%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.54%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.69%
Natural Gas +0.52%
RBOB Gasoline -0.51%
WTI Crude Oil +0.20%
Metals
Copper +0.37%
Gold 100oz +0.17%
Palladium -0.20%
Platinum -0.29%
Silver 5000oz +0.01%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.00% USDJPY:-0.11%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.03%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.09%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.31%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.07%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.25%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.04%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.09%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.70%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.07%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber -0.14%
Orange Juice -6.19%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Soybeans -0.07%
Sugar #11 -1.32%
Wheat -0.69%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.01%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.45%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.74%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.77%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.39%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.41%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.80%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.00%
RBI cuts rate again by 25 bps to 7.5%

Must reads

Extreme buy-and-hold: A US fund bought equal amounts of stock in 30 major U.S. corporations in 1935 and hasn’t picked a new stock since. The fund has beaten 98% of its peers (large value funds.) (Reuters)

Forget beef, Hogs are in! (LiveMint)

NSEL scam, big guns arrested: Amit Rathi, director of Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd, C P Krishnan, whole-time director of Geojit Comtrade Ltd, and Chintan Modi, director of India Infoline Ltd (IIFL). (DNA, #scam)

Grosvenor House, which was supposed to be bail-money for Subrata Roy, is being liquidated by lenders due to breaches of financial covenants. (TOI)

Suzlon: 6 years of losses. Better times ahead? (FP) SUZLON 25.20 -1.75 (-6.49%)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 03.03.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-03-03

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.08%
CAC(FRA) -0.69%
UKX(GBR) -0.09%
NKY(JPN) -0.21%
SPX(USA) +0.61%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.11%
INMEX(MEX) -0.62%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.54%
XU030(TUR) -0.22%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.09%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.06%
NIFTY(IND) +0.62%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.39%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.82%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.28%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.73%
Natural Gas -0.96%
RBOB Gasoline +1.12%
WTI Crude Oil +0.63%
Metals
Copper -1.07%
Gold 100oz -1.05%
Palladium -0.96%
Platinum -0.70%
Silver 5000oz -1.38%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.10% USDJPY:-0.38%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.02%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.10%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.27%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.10%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.91%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.03%
USDINR(IND) -0.02%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.08%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.28%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.39%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.33%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber -0.37%
Orange Juice -0.25%
Soybean Meal -0.15%
Soybeans +0.10%
Sugar #11 -1.31%
Wheat +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%

Must reads

Its all about the execution. (FT, #economy)

Auto sales: urban markets up, rural markets down. (LiveMint)

Finance secretary: “Any expenditure by a person in a five star hotel above Rs 5,000 have to be settled using credit card.” So, you have to be KYC compliant to eat at a restaurant in India. #FML (TOI)

Now, the RBI Governor will have to explain failure if inflation targets are not met. (ET)

Media coverage influences investor behavior in a way that exacerbates behavioral biases, such as chasing recent performance. So it seems that mutual funds have been correct to engage in the well-documented behavior of “window dressing.” Window dressing is when funds buy recent winners just before reporting dates because they believe investors will assume the fund was skillful in identifying the past winners ex-ante. (ETF, #fund)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 02.03.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-03-02

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.66%
CAC(FRA) +0.83%
UKX(GBR) -0.04%
NKY(JPN) +0.26%
SPX(USA) -0.30%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.21%
INMEX(MEX) -0.79%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.19%
XU030(TUR) -2.33%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.34%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.20%
NIFTY(IND) +0.65%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.10%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.00%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.40%
Ethanol +3.40%
Heating Oil -0.20%
Natural Gas -1.40%
RBOB Gasoline -0.20%
WTI Crude Oil -0.70%
Metals
Copper +0.20%
Gold 100oz +0.80%
Palladium +0.00%
Platinum +0.50%
Silver 5000oz +1.30%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.19% USDJPY:+0.19%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.53%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.17%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -2.23%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.14%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.10%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.24%
Agricultural
Cattle -1.10%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.70%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.30%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.80%
Lean Hogs +1.50%
Lumber +0.40%
Orange Juice -0.30%
Soybean Meal -0.80%
Soybeans +0.00%
Sugar #11 -1.10%
Wheat +0.50%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.24%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.20%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.91%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.78%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.58%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +2.05%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.21%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.45%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.39%
So the budget was a huge distraction and I am not entirely sure why it couldn’t just be a press release…

Must reads

Budget links: LiveMint, AjayShah. tl;dr: damp squib.

Modi wonders why India couldn’t produce a Google. #LOL. (FP)

Indian Railways is in talks with Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) to devise a mechanism to deploy Rs.1 trillion of its surplus funds into railway infrastructure over a period of five year. (LiveMint)

Good luck!

Monthly Recap: A Dozen Things Taught by Warren Buffett

world.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.61%
CAC(FRA) +7.54%
UKX(GBR) +2.92%
NKY(JPN) +6.36%
SPX(USA) +4.95%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.04%
INMEX(MEX) +8.10%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.83%
XU030(TUR) -6.16%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +10.38%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.11%
NIFTY(IND) +0.41%
INDEXCF(RUS) +6.75%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.55%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +15.87%
Ethanol +4.71%
Natural Gas +1.65%
WTI Crude Oil +4.03%
Brent Crude Oil +19.84%
RBOB Gasoline +38.27%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -4.07%
Palladium +6.05%
Copper +7.54%
Gold 100oz -4.89%
Platinum -3.99%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.87% USDJPY:+1.87%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.06%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.30%
USDNGN(NGA) +7.50%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.56%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.81%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.30%
USDINR(IND) -0.05%
USDRUB(RUS) -11.87%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.01%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -15.10%
Orange Juice -13.76%
White Sugar -3.00%
Cocoa +6.99%
Lean Hogs +0.07%
Wheat +2.68%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.39%
Corn +3.30%
Feeder Cattle -4.76%
Lumber -7.83%
Cattle -1.67%
Cotton +7.53%
Soybean Meal +6.62%
Soybeans +7.05%
Sugar #11 -6.49%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.80%
Markit CDX NA IG -6.65%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -12.04%
Markit iTraxx Australia -12.42%
Markit iTraxx Europe -8.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -53.54%
Markit iTraxx Japan -4.43%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.77%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.03%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.59%
Most world markets ended in the green. The energy complex clocked in some impressive gains as well…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Index Returns

index performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.87% 66/66
2 -3.59% 63/68
3 +3.03% 62/70
4 -1.24% 54/77
5 +1.86% 67/65
6 +1.88% 68/64
7 -0.26% 59/72
8 +3.20% 74/58
9 +1.42% 67/65
10 (mega) -0.02% 66/66
Mid-caps caught a bid but large-caps were mostly in the red…

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +21.26%
JINDALSTEL +23.38%
SIEMENS +28.31%
UNIONBANK -18.00%
RCOM -13.94%
AUROPHARMA -13.17%
Make defense stuff in India…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +0.31%
NIFTYBEES -0.04%
CPSEETF -0.36%
BANKBEES -1.65%
INFRABEES -1.76%
GOLDBEES -5.38%
PSUBNKBEES -6.40%
Not takers for PSU banks and their bag of worries…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-01-30.2015-02-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.19 +0.55%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.34 +0.01%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.08 +0.09%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.04 +0.07%
A flat yield curve means you only get to clip the coupon…

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-02-28

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thoughts to sum up the month

A business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if it is bought for too high a price. In other words, a sound investment can morph into a rash speculation if it is bought at an elevated price.

Source: A Dozen Things Taught by Warren Buffett in his 50th Anniversary Letter that will Benefit Ordinary Investors