Opening Bell 18.12.204

Your world at 9am

world.2014-12-18

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.20%
CAC(FRA) +0.46%
UKX(GBR) +0.07%
NKY(JPN) +2.55%
SPX(USA) +2.04%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.15%
INMEX(MEX) +1.96%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.78%
XU030(TUR) +2.17%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.63%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.64%
NIFTY(IND) -0.47%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.11%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.33%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.29%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.00%
Natural Gas +0.11%
RBOB Gasoline +0.32%
WTI Crude Oil +0.14%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz -0.10%
Palladium +0.33%
Platinum +0.23%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.05% USDJPY:-0.18%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.49%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.24%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.85%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.30%
USDINR(IND) +0.13%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.65%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.02%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.18%
Cotton -0.15%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.61%
Soybean Meal +0.17%
Soybeans +0.10%
Sugar #11 +0.07%
Wheat +0.08%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.44%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.48%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.62%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +10.61%
Markit iTraxx Australia +5.35%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.09%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +11.95%
Markit iTraxx Japan +6.36%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.38%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.18%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.67%
The S&P500 +2.04% last night and follow through action on the NKY this morning is encouraging. Is this the bottom?

Must reads

The Fed “can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.”

Analysts can now spend the holiday season debating whether the Fed will merely be patient or will be patient for a considerable time, or some combination thereof.

“At this phase in the relationship between markets and Fed communication, we have become trapped in minutia. Investors are dissecting the rearrangement of a few sentences to try to determine whether stocks are a buy or a sell.” (Bloomberg, WSJ)

Cabinet clears bill for nationwide goods and services tax. (Reuters)

Kingfisher, part deux? (FP)

Auto firms would like to forget 2014. Hopefully, a combination of rate-cuts, low oil and an improving economy will bring a brighter 2015. (LiveMint)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 17.12.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-12-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +2.46%
CAC(FRA) +2.19%
UKX(GBR) +2.41%
NKY(JPN) +0.42%
SPX(USA) -0.85%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.42%
INMEX(MEX) -0.23%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.30%
XU030(TUR) -4.18%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.02%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.57%
NIFTY(IND) -1.85%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.36%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.52%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -1.27%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.77%
Natural Gas +0.80%
RBOB Gasoline -0.75%
WTI Crude Oil -2.04%
Metals
Copper +0.17%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium +0.11%
Platinum +0.31%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.10% USDJPY:+0.34%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.03%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.36%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.20%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.59%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.31%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.69%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.17%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.06%
Cotton +0.15%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.27%
Orange Juice +0.17%
Soybean Meal -0.34%
Soybeans -0.20%
Sugar #11 -1.74%
Wheat -0.40%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.23%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.33%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.10%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.64%
Markit iTraxx Australia +3.73%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.73%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +17.38%
Markit iTraxx Japan +5.16%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.57%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.11%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.89%
The US dollar rallied, the Russian rouble collapsed, oil still searched for a bottom. The rally in European markets failed to cheer SPX. But the NKY and SHCOMP seem to be in the green this morning. Nifty bounce?

Must reads

Court asks CBI to probe Manmohan Singh’s role in coal mine allotment to Hindalco. (LiveMint, #scam)

SpiceJet bail out: Oil firms and airport operators to give credit of up to 15 days; allow bookings up to up to March 31; govt may ask banks to lend Rs 600 crore to the airline. Hopeless. (DNA)

Russia’s economy is doomed. (WP)

ruble

But Bitcoin is the worst investment of 2014. (QZ)

Good luck!

Opening Bell 16.12.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-12-16

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.72%
CAC(FRA) -2.52%
UKX(GBR) -1.87%
NKY(JPN) -1.90%
SPX(USA) -0.63%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.91%
INMEX(MEX) -3.20%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.88%
XU030(TUR) -0.32%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.05%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.08%
NIFTY(IND) -0.05%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.38%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.52%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.56%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.92%
Natural Gas +0.70%
RBOB Gasoline -0.52%
WTI Crude Oil -0.45%
Metals
Copper -0.19%
Gold 100oz -0.89%
Palladium -0.39%
Platinum -0.34%
Silver 5000oz -2.22%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.12% USDJPY:-0.22%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.99%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.19%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.82%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.81%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.57%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.51%
USDRUB(RUS) +10.22%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.40%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.12%
Cotton -0.03%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.36%
Orange Juice -1.66%
Soybean Meal -0.03%
Soybeans -0.31%
Sugar #11 -0.13%
Wheat -0.32%
White Sugar +0.00%

Must reads

Yesterday, the rouble tumbled more than 10% in its biggest fall since 1998. Russia’s central bank took drastic action to halt the rouble’s freefall on the foreign exchanges by raising interest rates by 6.5 percentage points to 17%. (TheGuardian)

Flash China Manufacturing PMI at 49.5 in December (50.0 in November). Seven-month low.
Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 49.7 in December (49.6 in November). Two-month high. (Markit)

Indian WPI came in at zero in Nov against 1.77% in Oct; trade deficit widens to an 18-month high – driven mainly by skyrocketing gold and electronics imports. (LiveMint, #economy, #inflation)

GST may be a reality soon. But what kind of reality? “Jaitley recognizes that it is better to introduce the tax, even if it isn’t perfect, instead of having to deal with a situation where there is no GST.” (TOI, ET)

Opening Bell 15.12.2014

Your world at 9am

world.2014-12-15

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.72%
CAC(FRA) -2.77%
UKX(GBR) -2.49%
NKY(JPN) -1.31%
SPX(USA) -1.62%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.76%
INMEX(MEX) +0.65%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.96%
XU030(TUR) -1.96%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.73%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.28%
NIFTY(IND) -0.83%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.32%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.09%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.42%
Ethanol -2.38%
Heating Oil +1.34%
Natural Gas +2.53%
RBOB Gasoline +1.03%
WTI Crude Oil +0.93%
Metals
Copper -0.03%
Gold 100oz -0.35%
Palladium -0.07%
Platinum -0.45%
Silver 5000oz -1.23%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.09% USDJPY:-0.04%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.39%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.10%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.57%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.32%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.07%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.07%
USDINR(IND) -0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.60%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.14%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.39%
Cocoa -0.16%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.80%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.55%
Cotton +0.40%
Feeder Cattle -1.31%
Lean Hogs -4.57%
Lumber +0.39%
Orange Juice +1.47%
Soybean Meal +0.60%
Soybeans +0.55%
Sugar #11 -0.99%
Wheat -0.16%
White Sugar +0.00%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.63%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.00%
Markit CDX NA IG +4.24%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.98%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.94%
Markit iTraxx Europe +5.22%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +22.43%
Markit iTraxx Japan +6.28%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.26%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.33%
World markets not looking good this morning. Both NKY and SHCOMP down more than 1% this morning. US Dollar is mixed, credit indices wide; if you are waiting to “buy the dip,” you may want to start now…

Must reads

Is the worst over for Indian banks? (LiveMint) BANKBEES 1,857.40 57.85 (3.21%)

Words of advice from Ranjan to Modi: “I am…cautioning against picking a particular sector such as manufacturing for encouragement, simply because it has worked well for China. India is different, and developing at a different time, and we should be agnostic about what will work” (FP, #economy)

Wholesale price inflation may be headed towards near-zero levels due to a fall in global petroleum and other commodity prices. (TOI, #rates, #inflation)

Good luck!

Weekly Recap: They’re all making it up

world.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.88%
CAC(FRA) -7.03%
UKX(GBR) -6.56%
NKY(JPN) -3.06%
SPX(USA) -3.61%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.53%
INMEX(MEX) -3.90%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -7.42%
XU030(TUR) -2.58%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -7.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.02%
NIFTY(IND) -3.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) -4.55%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.36%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -10.98%
Ethanol -3.18%
Natural Gas -0.87%
WTI Crude Oil -13.42%
Brent Crude Oil -11.22%
Heating Oil -5.34%
Metals
Copper +0.34%
Gold 100oz +2.74%
Palladium +1.51%
Platinum +0.66%
Silver 5000oz +5.56%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.39% USDJPY:-2.31%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.37%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.25%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.98%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.61%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.24%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.59%
USDINR(IND) +0.83%
USDRUB(RUS) +10.19%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.05%
Agricultural
Corn +4.55%
Cotton -0.49%
Lean Hogs -4.11%
Wheat +3.80%
Cocoa -3.08%
Sugar #11 -0.92%
White Sugar -1.09%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.77%
Feeder Cattle -4.18%
Orange Juice +4.01%
Soybean Meal -3.86%
Cattle -2.12%
Coffee (Robusta) -4.66%
Lumber +0.24%
Soybeans +1.82%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.51%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.44%
Markit CDX NA IG +6.32%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.58%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.31%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.14%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +18.62%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.77%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.48%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.37%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.93%
It was a brutal week at the markets. All major indices went down like a rock. Dollar rallied and the precious metal complex found a bid. The energy sector is like a drunk grouping in the dark for a bottom. But don’t you worry, SEBI will soon some up with a rule where your broker will have to send you a bag of cash whenever you lose money in the markets.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -7.17% 67/72
2 -4.35% 62/77
3 -4.12% 55/84
4 -4.96% 56/83
5 -5.77% 54/85
6 -5.63% 61/78
7 -4.51% 61/79
8 -3.75% 66/72
9 -4.15% 68/71
10 (mega) -3.60% 74/66
Maximum pain in the lower market cap tiers…

Top Winners and Losers

AUROPHARMA +2.74%
RANBAXY +4.10%
INFRATEL +9.98%
RCOM -12.68%
TATASTEEL -12.67%
SSLT -10.69%
Select “Story” stocks ended the week in the green.

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +2.44%
PSUBNKBEES -2.50%
BANKBEES -3.04%
NIFTYBEES -3.82%
JUNIORBEES -3.87%
CPSEETF -4.86%
INFRABEES -7.22%
Nice to see gold in the green after weeks in the red.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-05.2014-12-12

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.10 +0.18%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.01 +0.35%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.17 +0.64%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.17 +0.89%
Falling inflation, slowing growth and a dash for safe assets.

Investment Theme Performance

Not a single strategy worked this week. Here’s to hoping for better days ahead…

Thought for the weekend

They’re watching market prices fluctuate and assigning meaning where none exists. Stories are being told and headlines are being crafted so that there is something for you to click on from your app when you check the news.

They’re giving you an ex-post description of the beliefs of your fellow guessers who are no better at explaining day-to-day randomness than you are.

Source: They’re all making it up.

Related: Why Do Models Beat Experts?